Cocoa Stock-to-Grind Ratio

The cocoa stock-to-grind ratio measures exchange-visible cocoa stocks relative to annual grinding demand. It is one of the most important indicators of cocoa market tightness and helps traders estimate how limited deliverable cocoa supply is relative to consumption.

ICE US Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

This chart shows the relationship between ICE US deliverable cocoa stocks and the global cocoa stock-to-grind ratio. The dark line represents estimated days of grind coverage, while the light line shows the stock-to-grind ratio derived from exchange-visible cocoa inventories.

ICE UK Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

ICE UK deliverable cocoa stocks provide an additional view of exchange-visible inventories available for futures delivery in Europe. Monitoring these stocks helps identify tightening or loosening cocoa supply conditions.

Methodology

The stock-to-grind ratio compares exchange-visible cocoa inventories with global grinding demand. Deliverable stocks are sourced from ICE Futures US and ICE Futures Europe warehouse reports.

The ratio is calculated by dividing total exchange-visible stocks by estimated annual grinding demand. The result shows how large the visible cocoa inventory is relative to consumption.

The “Days of Grind” metric converts this ratio into the number of days that exchange-visible stocks could cover global grinding demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the cocoa stock-to-grind ratio?

The cocoa stock-to-grind ratio measures how large available cocoa inventories are relative to annual grinding demand. Lower ratios indicate tighter supply and usually support higher cocoa prices.

Why are ICE deliverable stocks important?

ICE warehouse stocks represent cocoa that can be delivered against futures contracts. They provide the most transparent view of visible cocoa supply in the futures market.

What does “days of grind” mean?

Days of grind converts the stock-to-grind ratio into the number of days global cocoa grinding could be supported by exchange-visible inventories.

Why the Cocoa Stock-to-Grind Ratio Matters?

The stock-to-grind ratio is widely used by commodity analysts to evaluate cocoa market balance. When the ratio falls, it signals tightening inventories and potential upward pressure on cocoa futures prices. When the ratio rises, it indicates increasing supply relative to demand.