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Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest industrial chocolate manufacturer, has confirmed that it is exploring a strategic separation of its cocoa division. While management cites “deleveraging” and “market volatility” as the primary drivers, a forensic analysis suggests a deeper reality: this separation appears to be the culmination of a long-term
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Analysis of Geographic Redistribution and Supply Rebalancing Executive Summary Cocoa prices collapsed 53% from their December 2024 peak of $12,900/t to $5,300–5,500/t (December 2025), yet the market remains structurally tight. The 2024/25 surplus was only 49 kt, against forecasts of 100+ kt. This
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Cocoa spent most of 2023 trading quietly around $2,500 per ton, a level aligned with long-standing supply and demand equilibria. That calm ended as structural weakness in West Africa, the region responsible for over 70% of global output, began to surface simultaneously. Untreated swollen-shoot disease, exhausted soil, and aging
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For two decades the cocoa industry has lived on a comforting illusion: that West Africa — with its deep forests, vast smallholder networks, and political incentives to preserve high-volume exports — would continue supplying the world regardless of shocks, crises, weather, or structural decay. That illusion is now dissolving. Behind the headlines
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The EU has delayed its deforestation regulation—but what does this mean for cocoa farmers, exporters, and global supply chains? Here’s the reality behind the headlines.
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Ecuador Is Quietly Positioning to Replace West Africa
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Deficit or Surplus? What to Expect for the 2025/26 Cocoa Balance
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The Cocoa Industry’s Biggest Myth: Sustainability Certifications Were a Scam
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Cocoa has crashed. The spectacular surge above $10,000–$11,000 per tonne during the 2024–25 supply panic is long gone, replaced by prices near $5,200–$5,500. Traders call it a correction, chocolate companies call it stabilization, but for Ivory Coast and Ghana — which together produce roughly
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When the rains ended in late 2023 and the cocoa harvest began, few could imagine that this would become one of the most distorted marketing seasons in modern West African history. The global price of cocoa was soaring — reaching levels unseen since the 1970s — yet in the forest villages of
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Over the past 18–24 months, the global cocoa-and-chocolate complex has faced an intriguing paradox. According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), global cocoa bean grindings—the amount of beans processed into chocolate, cocoa powder, and cocoa butter—are down year-on-year and versus prior estimates. At the same time, retail