16.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report
Market Overview
Cocoa futures advanced on Thursday, with both New York and London contracts rebounding after midweek softness. The move came amid light trade and continued pre-election uncertainty in Ivory Coast as well as better than expected European cocoa grinding results. Prices remain well supported by persistent supply constraints in West Africa, though broader demand concerns continue to temper bullish enthusiasm.
After market close, the National Confectioners Association and the Cocoa Association of Asia released third-quarter grind data, offering a mixed global demand picture. These results are expected to influence market sentiment in the coming sessions but had no impact on Thursday’s price action.
Inventory / Stocks
US cocoa stocks: 1,875,567
Up by 242 from Wednesday’s 1,875,325 (+0.01%).
Flat stock movement indicates balanced port flows and steady processing activity.
UK cocoa stocks: 508,125
Down by 2,188 from Wednesday’s 510,313 (–0.4%).
The modest drawdown reflects localized bean use among British processors, possibly linked to seasonal chocolate production.
Futures / Market Metrics
| Market | Contract | Close (Oct 16) | Daily Change | Volume | Previous Close (Oct 15) | Weekly Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York (US) | Dec 2025 | $5,996 | +$132 (+2.2%) | 22,018 | $5,864 | ▲ +3.8% vs last week |
| London (UK) | Dec 2025 | £4,187 | +£79 (+1.9%) | 24,682 | £4,108 | ▲ +2.8% vs last week |
New York cocoa led Thursday’s rally as traders built fresh long positions ahead of the release of grind data. London followed with moderate gains, supported by a weaker pound and speculative short-covering. Despite the recent volatility, both contracts remain in positive weekly territory, maintaining an upward bias driven by tight origin supply and heightened political risk in West Africa.
Cocoa Grind and Demand Trends
Fresh global grind data released after the close presented a highly contrasting demand picture.
North America’s third-quarter cocoa grind rose 3.22% year-on-year to 112,784 metric tons, according to the National Confectioners Association. The increase sharply exceeded market expectations for a 5–8% decline, reflecting resilience in chocolate manufacturing and a broader recovery in regional processing margins. Brokers attributed part of the gain to improved reporting coverage, with 16 plants participating this quarter versus 14 a year earlier.
Asia’s third-quarter grind, by contrast, fell 17.08% year-on-year to 183,413 metric tons, according to the Cocoa Association of Asia. The steep drop points to subdued demand across key processing hubs and reduced bean availability in Indonesia and Malaysia, where exporters continue to face high procurement costs and limited stock replenishment. Nevertheless grindings are higher than Q2 by 6,769 metric tons.
European grind data, released earlier in the day, showed a milder 4.8% annual decline, suggesting overall global grind volumes are soft but not collapsing. Taken together, the results highlight uneven regional dynamics—stronger demand in North America but a clear slowdown in Asia and persistent weakness in Europe.
While these figures did not influence Thursday’s price movement, they are likely to drive volatility in the next trading sessions. The North American surprise could lend upward support to New York futures, while the sharp Asian contraction may temper sentiment if global demand concerns intensify.
Ivory Coast and Ghana Developments
In Ghana, fiscal pressures remain in focus. Energy analyst Kwadwo Nsafoah Poku warned that declining cocoa revenues and a strong cedi policy are worsening government liquidity constraints. He noted that COCOBOD faces severe financial strain as current prices around $5,939 per ton leave little operational margin under the government’s fixed producer price structure. Without an exchange rate adjustment or stronger revenue inflows, COCOBOD could struggle to fund crop purchases and logistics during the main harvest.
In Ivory Coast, attention remains on the approaching October 25 presidential election. Port activity in Abidjan and San Pedro has been stable but cautious, with exporters reporting modest bean arrivals as the main crop begins. Political tensions persist, though large-scale disruptions have not materialized. Market participants remain alert to any signs of unrest that could disrupt export flows or transportation networks in the coming week.
Weather Summary — Ivory Coast and Ghana
Ivory Coast:
Rainfall increased notably midweek, particularly in the western and southern cocoa belts. Soubre and Duekoue saw heavy rainfall on October 14 (21 mm and 20 mm, respectively), maintaining generally humid soil conditions. Danane peaked at 21 mm on October 17, signaling persistent moisture in the Montagnes region. However, conditions stabilized toward week’s end with moderate rainfall between 6–9 mm across most producing areas, adequate for sustaining pod filling but raising mild concerns over localized pod rot in low-lying areas.
Ghana:
The Ashanti and Brong-Ahafo regions experienced moderate but consistent rainfall. The wettest day was October 14, when most stations (Kumasi, Asawasi, Tafo, Obuasi) recorded 15–18 mm. Subsequent days brought lighter rain (3–9 mm), helping maintain good soil moisture without significant flooding. These patterns are favorable for late pod development and early harvesting of the 2025/26 main crop, as rains were well distributed without excessive intensity.
Overall Assessment:
- Moisture levels: Adequate in both countries, supporting crop growth.
- Risk factors: Slightly above-average rainfall in western Côte d’Ivoire could increase disease pressure.
- Crop outlook: Generally positive; no major drought stress observed this week.
Industry and Corporate News
Nestlé announced plans to cut 16,000 jobs worldwide as part of a major restructuring aimed at saving 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.76 billion) by the end of 2026. The company cited persistent input cost pressures—including high cocoa prices—as key drivers behind the plan. Despite the cost challenges, Nestlé’s shares rose nearly 8% following the announcement, reflecting investor optimism about its renewed focus on profitability.
ICCO Market Context
The International Cocoa Organization’s September 2025 report reaffirmed expectations of a sizable global supply deficit for the 2024/25 season, estimated at around 300,000 tons. Persistent weather-related production losses in West Africa, tight inventories, and strong domestic grind activity in Ivory Coast continue to constrain effective supply. These factors provide a solid price floor despite demand headwinds in Asia and Europe.
Outlook
Cocoa futures are expected to open firm in the next session as traders react to the bullish North American grind surprise. The contrasting Asian figures may cap gains, but with West African supply still limited and the Ivory Coast election just a week away, downside risk remains contained. Overall sentiment stays cautiously bullish, with volatility likely to persist as the market recalibrates to the new demand data.
Key Watchlist for Tomorrow
- Market reaction to grind data: Traders to assess price impact from the North American and Asian grind results.
- Ivory Coast election developments: Continued monitoring of political stability and port logistics.
- Port arrivals and shipments: Any slowdown in Abidjan or San Pedro could further tighten supply.
- Weather in West Africa: Follow-up rainfall in western and central cocoa belts remains critical for the 2025/26 crop.
- Technical levels: Support for New York Dec futures near $5,930; resistance around $6,070. In London, support at £4,150 with resistance at £4,230.
