17.10.2025 - Daily Cocoa Market Report

Market Overview

Cocoa futures fell sharply on Friday, giving back Thursday’s gains as traders reacted to weak Asian grind figures and renewed signs of soft global demand. London cocoa led losses, dropping over 2% to a one-week low, while New York futures followed with moderate declines. Risk aversion in wider commodity markets—spurred by renewed concerns over U.S. regional banks—added to the downward tone.

Despite the pullback, prices remain well above early-October levels, supported by supply concerns in West Africa and continued scrutiny of Ivory Coast’s pre-election logistics situation.

Inventory / Stocks

US cocoa stocks: 1,870,004
Down by 5,563 from Thursday’s 1,875,567 (–0.3%).
The drawdown reflects limited port inflows and steady processing activity, consistent with earlier grind strength.

UK cocoa stocks: 517,656
Up by 9,531 from Thursday’s 508,125 (+1.9%).
The increase suggests additional warehouse receipts ahead of holiday-season chocolate production, although high replacement costs continue to curb new arrivals.

Futures / Market Metrics

New York cocoa posted a mild weekly gain, up 1.4% from $5,837 the previous Friday, while London eased 0.8% from £4,160. Both markets remain in a broad consolidation phase as traders reassess the global demand outlook following the latest grind data.

Commitments of Traders — ICE Europe (Futures Only)

The latest ICE Europe COT report (as of October 14) shows a modest reduction in speculative length. Managed-money long positions declined to 7,359 contracts from 8,129 the previous week, while shorts rose to 20,236 from 18,921. The net long position fell by about 1,900 lots, reflecting caution after the release of bearish demand indicators.

Producer/merchant short hedges expanded to 80,977, signaling active coverage of new-season West African sales. Swap dealers and other reportables were mostly unchanged, while non-reportable traders lightened net exposure.
U.S. data remain unavailable due to the federal government shutdown.

Cocoa Grind and Demand Trends

Recent reports confirm a mixed global picture. North America’s Q3 grind rose 3.2% y/y to 112,784 tons, though the increase was influenced by two additional reporting plants. Europe’s Q3 grind fell 4.8%, and Asia’s plunged 17.1% to 183,413 tons – the lowest third-quarter total in nine years.

The combination of resilient processing in the West and deep declines in Asia underscores uneven chocolate demand globally. Analysts expect further weakness into Q4 as manufacturers continue to adjust formulations and reduce cocoa content to control costs.

Ivory Coast and Ghana Supply Situation

Exporters in Ivory Coast are rejecting large volumes of new crop beans due to poor quality and contamination. Bloomberg reports that as many as 65% of trucks arriving at ports have been turned away for excess mold, waste material, and small bean size. The government’s higher farm-gate price of 2,880 CFA/kg ($5.05/kg) has discouraged buyers from providing financing, and banks remain reluctant to extend credit given quality risks.

Exporters estimate average bean counts of about 110 per 100 grams versus the official norm of 90–100, reducing fat content and grind yields. Several cooperatives have halted purchases pending quality inspections. The situation threatens to delay early-season shipments and may tighten near-term supply despite ample on-paper production.

In Ghana, COCOBOD continues to face liquidity constraints due to weak export revenue and an overvalued cedi. Delayed payments to farmers and slower warehouse intakes have been reported in several districts.

Political and Economic Developments — Ivory Coast Election

The country heads into its October 25 presidential election under heightened tension. President Alassane Ouattara is seeking a fourth term after the 2016 constitutional change that removed term limits. Several leading opposition figures remain barred from running, and recent protests in Abidjan and Bouaké have led to over two dozen arrests. Authorities have tightened security and warned against disinformation campaigns circulating online.

While major violence has not occurred, exporters and banks are acting cautiously. Some bean deliveries to San Pedro have been delayed as a precaution. Any disruption in transport or port logistics during the vote could temporarily support London futures.

Industry and Consumer Trends

Cocoa’s high costs continue to reshape the chocolate industry. In the UK, McVitie’s Club and Penguin bars must now be labeled “chocolate flavoured” after reduced cocoa content, highlighting how manufacturers are adjusting formulations to manage input inflation. Meanwhile, Mondelez International faces margin pressures ahead of earnings as rising cocoa and dairy costs outpace sales growth.

Outlook

The near-term outlook has turned neutral-to-slightly bearish as demand weakness offsets supply concerns. Traders expect prices to consolidate between $5,800–$6,000 in New York and £4,050–£4,200 in London until clearer post-election signals emerge from Ivory Coast. Persistent quality issues could support values later in October if export flows remain slow.

Key Watchlist for Monday

• Ivory Coast election developments and port operations.
• Export bean rejections and financing conditions at San Pedro and Abidjan.
• West African rainfall patterns and field reports on pod development.
• Managed-money positioning after latest COT release.
• Technical levels: support $5,850 NY / £4,050 London; resistance $6,000 NY / £4,200 London.