Cocoa Extends Pullback While Ivory Coast Arrivals Remain Robust (29 June 2026)
NY cocoa September 2026 futures extended their correction on Monday, with the contract settling at approximately 4,967 USD/tonne, down around 1.4% from the previous close near 5,040 USD/tonne. After opening under pressure, the market remained on the defensive throughout most of the session, with only a modest intraday recovery late in the day. The decline follows last week's strong rally above 5,200 USD/tonne and appears to reflect continued profit-taking rather than a material deterioration in underlying market fundamentals. Trading volumes eased from the elevated levels seen during last week's advance, suggesting selling pressure was orderly rather than driven by aggressive liquidation.
Weather
Weather conditions across West Africa remained mixed over the past week, with localized flooding offset by generally favourable growing conditions in many cocoa-producing regions.
In Côte d'Ivoire, Reuters reported that heavy rainfall caused flooding across several southern cocoa-growing areas, particularly around Agboville, where overflowing rivers left some plantations temporarily inaccessible. Farmers warned that prolonged cloud cover and excessive rainfall could reduce sunshine levels needed for optimal flowering ahead of the 2026/27 main crop. Persistent wet conditions may also increase losses of young cocoa pods ("cherelles") while elevating disease pressure, especially black pod disease.
Conditions were more favourable across the country's west-central and central producing regions, including Daloa, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro. Farmers reported regular, well-distributed rainfall that should support flowering and pod development during the coming weeks. Temperatures remained seasonally favourable, ranging between 25.1°C and 27.4°C.
According to West African cocoa market analyst Ousmane Attai Ouedraogo, Côte d'Ivoire has experienced above-average rainfall ahead of the 2026/27 season. The national meteorological agency, Sodexam, expects rainfall to peak during July, providing generally supportive moisture for early crop development. Nevertheless, Ouedraogo cautioned that continued excessive rainfall could significantly increase black pod disease pressure unless plantations receive timely fungicide treatment.
According to ADM in Ghana, Reuters reported that farmers expect cocoa production could decline during the 2026/27 season as persistent heavy rainfall damages flowering trees and accelerates the spread of black pod disease. Farmers also expressed concern that COCOBOD has not yet approved the distribution of fungicides needed to control the disease. Although cocoa swollen shoot disease was not specifically highlighted by farmers, prolonged wet conditions may also increase longer-term disease risks by placing additional stress on cocoa trees.
Meanwhile, World Weather Inc. reported that rainfall became more scattered over the weekend, with parts of both Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire experiencing a modest drying trend. The weather service noted a reduction in rainfall frequency and intensity across portions of West African cocoa-growing regions. Some seasonal drying during July and August is typical as the West African monsoon gradually shifts northward.
Cocoa Intel
Ivory Coast Arrivals
Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals continued to point to robust bean availability. According to Reuters, cumulative arrivals since the start of the 2025/26 marketing season reached 1.910 million tonnes as of 28 June, representing an 18.4% increase compared with the same period last season. During the week of 22–28 June, arrivals totalled 27,000 tonnes, up from 18,000 tonnes in the corresponding week a year earlier.
The latest figures reinforce the view that bean supply remains significantly stronger than last season, helping to ease immediate concerns over physical availability. While weekly arrivals are naturally slowing as the mid-crop progresses, the strong year-on-year increase continues to provide a bearish supply signal for the market. Nevertheless, traders will closely monitor whether the recent heavy rainfall and localized flooding in southern Ivory Coast begin to affect crop development and port arrivals during the coming weeks.
Cocoa Intel
Crop Outlook
According to Bloomberg, early field assessments indicate that Ivory Coast's 2026/27 cocoa crop could decline by around 20%, with traders surveyed estimating production at approximately 1.8 million tonnes, compared with about 2.2 million tonnes this season. The lower forecast is based on poor cocoa pod development, with several market participants describing current pod counts as the weakest seen in decades for this time of year.
The market's attention has shifted toward next season's production after concerns that excessive rainfall during April and May may have increased disease pressure, particularly black pod disease, across key producing regions in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Looking ahead, forecasts for a potential super El Niño raise the additional risk that a stronger-than-normal Harmattan could negatively affect both the latter part of the main crop and the following mid-crop.
Jonathan Parkman, Head of Agricultural Sales at Marex Group, stated that current pod counts in Ivory Coast and Ghana are the lowest observed for this stage of the season, highlighting the increasingly tight production outlook. As a result, several major market participants, including Citigroup and Marex, now expect the global cocoa market to return to a supply deficit in the 2026/27 season.
While the next round of field surveys in July will provide a clearer picture of crop potential, traders remain focused on weather developments. Continued favourable rainfall and strong flowering could still support some recovery, but current field observations suggest that supply risks remain elevated and are likely to keep weather at the centre of cocoa market sentiment.
Chocolate Industry
According to Bloomberg, Swiss premium chocolate manufacturer Lindt & Sprüngli is on track for its worst quarterly share performance in 17 years, with the stock down approximately 15% since the end of March. Investors have become increasingly concerned that the company's aggressive price increases, implemented to offset record cocoa costs, are beginning to weigh on consumer demand.
Lindt raised prices by nearly 20% last year, resulting in weaker sales volumes despite the company's strong premium brand positioning. Earlier this year, the company lowered its 2026 organic sales growth guidance to 4–6%, down from the previous 6–8% range, citing weaker consumer sentiment and higher transportation and packaging costs.
Although cocoa futures have fallen nearly 60% from their December 2024 record highs, Lindt noted that lower cocoa prices are unlikely to materially reduce its input costs until 2027 because of its long-term procurement strategy. Nevertheless, the company has already started selectively reducing retail prices in markets such as Switzerland and Germany to improve competitiveness.
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