Cocoa Prices Expected to Recover Modestly by the End of 2026
Cocoa prices are projected to rise slightly above current levels by the end of 2026, although they are still expected to remain significantly below the record highs reached in late 2025. This outlook comes from a recent poll of traders and analysts conducted by Reuters.
According to the survey, London cocoa futures traded on ICE are expected to finish 2026 at around £2,750 per metric ton. While this would represent an increase of roughly 16–17% from current levels, it would still be approximately 37% lower than prices recorded at the end of 2025.
For the New York market, the median forecast suggests cocoa could close 2026 at approximately $3,350 per metric ton. This would be a modest 1–2% increase from present prices, but still about 45% below the levels seen at the end of 2025.
After surging to unprecedented highs in 2024, cocoa prices have dropped dramatically, losing close to three-quarters of their value from peak levels. The main reason behind this decline has been a sharp reduction in demand. Chocolate manufacturers have responded to the previous price surge by reducing cocoa usage, reformulating products, and increasing the use of alternative ingredients.
At the same time, improved weather conditions in West Africa have supported expectations for stronger production. Farmers, encouraged by the exceptionally high prices seen in the past two years, have also invested more effort in farm maintenance, including pruning and crop care—practices that had often been neglected during periods of historically low prices.
Industry analysts expect that demand may begin to stabilize as lower cocoa prices gradually filter through to consumers. As retail chocolate prices adjust downward, consumption could start to recover during the second half of the year.
The Reuters poll also suggests the global cocoa market could record a surplus of around 308,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season (October to September). This would mark a significant shift from the estimated deficit of about 66,500 tons during the 2024/25 season.
Production in the world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, is forecast to increase to approximately 1.8 million tons in 2025/26, up from 1.68 million tons in the previous season.
Meanwhile, Ghana, the second-largest producer, is expected to see output rise to around 630,000 tons, compared with roughly 590,000 tons previously.
In Ecuador, the third-largest cocoa exporter and an increasingly influential supplier in global markets, production is projected to reach about 622,500 tons, compared with 572,500 tons in the prior season.
