Cocoa Rebounds as Traders Consolidate After Selloff; Ivory Coast Stock Revision Raises Supply Questions (8 June 2026)

• July New York cocoa rose 2.1% to settle at 3,821, while July London cocoa gained 2.0% to £2,956, recovering part of the sharp losses recorded on 5 June.

• Weather conditions across West Africa remained favourable.

• Forecast models indicate widespread rainfall of 25-100 mm across major cocoa-producing regions.

• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached an estimated 1.822 million tonnes as of 7 June, up 11% year-on-year, while weekly arrivals were estimated at 15,000 tonnes.

• A dispute emerged between Ivory Coast Agriculture Minister Bruno Koné and cocoa regulator Conseil Café-Cacao (CCC) regarding national cocoa stock estimates and production data.

Cocoa futures rebounded on 8 June, with July New York cocoa rising 2.1% to close at 3,821, while July London cocoa gained 2.0% to settle at £2,956. Following the sharp selloff recorded on 5 June, both markets spent the session consolidating gains as buying interest returned at lower price levels. Although prices remain below key technical resistance levels, the recovery suggests that downside momentum has eased and that the market is attempting to establish a near-term base after last week's volatility.

Weather

Weather conditions across West Africa remained broadly favourable for cocoa development during the past week, with above-average rainfall reported across many of Ivory Coast's key cocoa-growing regions. According to field reports, Soubré received 67.4 mm of rainfall, 12.5 mm above its five-year average, while Divo also recorded above-average precipitation. In the southern region of Agboville, rainfall reached 84.4 mm, exceeding the seasonal norm by 25.8 mm, while Abengourou in the east received 74.6 mm, 21.9 mm above average. Farmers across most producing areas reported improved soil moisture conditions, healthy tree development and adequate pod growth during the critical mid-crop period.

The latest rainfall forecasts for next 7 days continue to show an active precipitation pattern across much of the West African cocoa belt. Forecast models indicate widespread rainfall accumulations of approximately 25-100 mm across major cocoa-producing regions of Ivory Coast and Ghana over the next seven days, with localized areas potentially receiving more than 100 mm. Moisture levels are expected to remain particularly favourable across southern and central producing regions, helping maintain adequate soil moisture reserves and reducing near-term crop stress risks.

While persistent rainfall may temporarily slow harvesting and bean drying activities in some locations, current conditions remain significantly more supportive than threatening. The combination of above-average rainfall, moderate temperatures of 27.6-31.1°C reported across Ivory Coast, and healthy soil moisture profiles suggests generally favourable growing conditions for the remainder of the mid-crop season. As a result, weather remains a neutral-to-bearish factor for cocoa prices in the near term, as the market continues to receive evidence of adequate crop development across the region.

Ivory Coast Arrivals

Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals were estimated at 1.822 million tonnes as of 7 June, according to exporter data, representing an increase of 11% compared with the same period last season. Weekly arrivals reached approximately 15,000 tonnes between 1 and 7 June, with deliveries continuing to flow through the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro as the mid-crop harvest progresses.

However, the latest arrivals figure appears to include a significant upward revision to cumulative season-to-date data. In the previous week's report, cumulative arrivals as of 31 May were estimated at 1.659 million tonnes, up only 2.2% year-on-year. The increase to 1.822 million tonnes one week later cannot be explained by the reported weekly arrivals of 15,000 tonnes alone, suggesting that exporter estimates were revised higher rather than reflecting an exceptionally large one-week increase in physical deliveries.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Port Arrivals – Weekly Deliveries Tracker

Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals represent the volume of cocoa beans delivered to the country’s main export ports during the marketing season. As the world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast typically accounts for around 40–45% of global cocoa supply, making port arrivals one of the most closely

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Ivory Coast Cocoa Stocks Revision

A dispute between Ivory Coast Agriculture Minister Bruno Koné and the country's cocoa regulator, the Conseil Café-Cacao (CCC), has raised fresh questions about the true size of cocoa inventories and the accuracy of official production estimates. The controversy emerged after a government-led census identified more than 350,000 tonnes of unsold cocoa beans across producing regions, significantly exceeding the CCC's previous estimate of 123,000 tonnes.

The revised inventory figures have prompted authorities to increase estimates for the recently completed 2025/26 main crop to more than 1.7 million tonnes, compared with the CCC's earlier projection of 1.3 million tonnes. The development suggests that cocoa availability in Ivory Coast may be substantially higher than previously reported.

From a market perspective, the discovery of larger-than-expected inventories is a potentially bearish development. If confirmed, the revised figures would indicate that supply conditions are less restrictive than many market participants had assumed, reducing concerns about immediate bean availability. Traders will closely monitor whether the revised estimates are formally adopted and whether additional adjustments to production, arrivals, or stock data follow in the coming weeks.

The dispute also introduces uncertainty regarding the reliability of key Ivory Coast supply statistics, which remain among the most important fundamental indicators for the global cocoa market. Any further revisions to inventory or production estimates could influence market expectations for global supply balances heading into the 2026/27 season.

Futures Performance

New York cocoa recovered a meaningful portion of the sharp losses recorded on 5 June. The July 2026 contract closed at 3,821 on 8 June, up 77 points from the previous session's close of 3,744. Similar gains were observed across the forward curve, with September 2026 rising 70 points, December 2026 gaining 64 points, March 2027 advancing 53 points, and May 2027 adding 48 points. While the market remained below levels seen prior to the selloff, the rebound demonstrates that buyers re-emerged quickly after the aggressive liquidation observed on 5 June.

The structure of the recovery is particularly noteworthy. Nearby contracts outperformed deferred contracts, with gains gradually diminishing further out the curve. This pattern suggests that the previous session's weakness was driven more by short-term position liquidation and profit-taking than by a fundamental reassessment of long-term cocoa supply and demand conditions. Market participants appeared willing to rebuild exposure in nearby maturities while maintaining a more cautious stance toward longer-dated contracts.

The forward curve also flattened modestly during the recovery. The premium of the May 2027 contract over July 2026 narrowed from 312 points on 5 June to 283 points on 8 June. This indicates that the rebound was concentrated in the front end of the curve, where commercial and speculative buying interest was strongest. Such behaviour is generally associated with improving confidence in near-term market conditions rather than a broad-based shift in long-term expectations.

London cocoa displayed a similar pattern, although the recovery was more evenly distributed across the curve. The July 2026 contract increased by 57 points to close at 2,956, while September 2026 gained 55 points, December 2026 rose 53 points, March 2027 advanced 46 points, and May 2027 added 49 points. The consistency of the gains across maturities suggests that the selling pressure observed on 5 June had become overstretched and attracted buying interest throughout the market.

As in New York, the London forward curve flattened slightly. The premium of May 2027 over July 2026 narrowed from 111 points to 103 points, reflecting relatively stronger performance in nearby contracts. Although the magnitude of the flattening was modest, it reinforces the view that market participants were more willing to support nearby values than deferred prices.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Exchange for Physical (EFP) activity remained extremely limited across both the New York and London cocoa markets. In New York cocoa, only 37 EFP contracts were reported on 8 June, all concentrated in the July 2026 contract, while no EFS transactions were recorded. London cocoa registered 150 EFP contracts in the July 2026 contract and likewise reported no EFS activity. The absence of meaningful EFS transactions suggests that market participants were not actively exchanging futures positions for related cash-market exposures, indicating that physical merchandising activity remained relatively subdued.

Spread trading continued to account for a significant share of overall market participation. In New York cocoa, total spread volume reached 49,304 contracts, representing approximately 76% of total outright volume. The highest spread activity was concentrated in the July–September and September–December sections of the curve, highlighting continued interest in managing exposure to nearby market structure and carry dynamics. Such elevated spread participation typically reflects commercial hedging adjustments, roll activity, and relative-value positioning rather than outright directional speculation.

London cocoa exhibited a similar pattern, with spread volume reaching 21,412 contracts, equivalent to roughly 69% of outright volume. Activity was again concentrated in the nearby contract months, suggesting that traders remained focused on the evolution of short-term supply conditions and curve structure. The substantial level of spread trading relative to outright volume indicates that participants were actively repositioning along the forward curve while maintaining a more measured approach to outright price risk.

US–UK July Spread

$3,821 − (£2,956 x 1.334$/£) =$-122ton (up from $-123)

Volume and Open Interest

New York cocoa trading activity remained elevated on 8 June following the exceptionally active session on 5 June. Total volume reached 65,238 contracts. Although volume declined by approximately 6.1% from the previous session, it remained well above the recent average, indicating continued participation from both speculative and commercial market participants. The elevated volume, combined with the price recovery observed on 8 June, suggests that buyers were actively engaging with the market following the sharp selloff at the end of the previous week.

Open interest in New York cocoa increasing steadily. The rise in open interest alongside substantial trading volumes suggests that new positions were being established rather than existing positions merely changing hands. This indicates growing market participation and conviction ahead of the sharp price decline recorded on 5 June. Open-interest data for 8 June was not yet available at the time of publication.

London cocoa displayed a similar pattern, although volumes were lower than in New York. Total volume reached 30,840 contracts on 8 June, down from 39,866 contracts on 5 June but broadly consistent with the average activity seen throughout last three weeks. Trading volumes generally ranged between 20,000 and 35,000 contracts during May before increasing noticeably in early June as volatility intensified. The elevated volumes around the 5–8 June period suggest active repositioning by market participants in response to changing price dynamics.

London open interest showed a persistent upward trend. This represents an increase of nearly 16,000 contracts, or approximately 7.5%, over less than three weeks. The combination of rising open interest and elevated trading volume indicates that fresh capital continued to enter the market despite the significant price correction. As in New York, open-interest data for 8 June was not yet available.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Cocoa Market Outlook for Tuesday

For Tuesday, the most likely outcome is a consolidation-to-recovery session, with prices attempting to extend gains toward the 3,875-3,900 area. If buyers are able to establish acceptance above that zone, additional short covering could develop and push the market higher. However, failure to hold above 3,800 or rejection from the 3,875-3,900 resistance band would suggest that the recovery is losing momentum and could lead to another test of support levels.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.