Cocoa Swollen Shoot Disease Threatens 15% of Ivory Coast Output
Based on reporting by Reuters
Cocoa swollen shoot disease is worsening in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, placing an estimated 15% of the country’s cocoa supply at risk, according to a new study by non-profit organisation Everitas.
The study, which surveyed more than 11,600 cocoa farms across Ivory Coast, found that over 41% of farms were infected during the 2024/25 mid-crop season (October–September). This represents a sharp deterioration compared with the previous season, when infection rates were closer to one-third.
Swollen shoot disease is spread by sap-sucking insects known as mealybugs, which attack cocoa tree leaves, buds, flowers, and pods. Infected trees may continue to produce cocoa initially, but at reduced yields. After five to ten years, the disease is typically fatal, forcing farmers to cut down and replant entire plots.
Everitas estimates that current infection levels are already reducing cocoa yields by around 35%, implying that roughly 15% of Ivory Coast’s total cocoa production is at risk once the number of infected farms is taken into account.
The findings raise concerns for chocolate manufacturers and traders that rely heavily on Ivorian cocoa. According to Everitas, the trend signals heightened supply risk, potential changes in sourcing strategies, and the need for more targeted disease-control interventions.
Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), declined to comment on the report.
The warning comes at a sensitive moment for the global cocoa market. Cocoa prices surged to record highs in 2024 following severe crop losses in both Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana, which together account for roughly half of global cocoa production. While prices have since eased and global supply is expected to improve later this year, analysts warn that long-term supply risks in West Africa remain unresolved if the disease continues to spread.
Although swollen shoot disease is endemic to Ivory Coast and Ghana, its spread has accelerated in recent years. Many farmers lack the financial resources to remove infected trees and wait several years for new plantings to mature. Standard control measures require infected trees to be cut down and burned, followed by replanting.
In Ghana, the problem has worsened significantly. A nationwide survey conducted in 2023 found that 31% of cocoa-growing land was infected with swollen shoot disease, up sharply from 17% in 2017. The disease previously devastated Ghana’s cocoa sector in the 1960s and 1970s, cutting national output by around 50% when the country was the world’s leading cocoa producer.
Unless containment and replanting efforts are scaled up, swollen shoot disease is likely to remain a structural threat to cocoa production, reinforcing long-term supply tightness and price volatility in the global cocoa market.
Attribution
This article is based on reporting by Reuters (May Angel; edited by Jan Harvey)
