Daily Cocoa Market Report (1 April 2026): Cocoa Rebound Gains Traction in NY While London Softens

• NY cocoa extends rebound, London lags, closing slightly lower across tenors
• Demand signal improves, as The Hershey Company indicates a return to traditional chocolate recipes
• West Africa weather supportive
• Exports remain robust, with Ivorian raw bean shipments up +11.56% y/y, though product mix shows divergence (paste -7.14%, powder +30.46%)
• Domestic tensions persist, with uncollected stocks and CCC-producer frictions slowing mid-crop flow

Cocoa futures extended their recovery into 1 April, building on the sharp reversal observed at the end of March. In New York, prices advanced across the curve, led by nearby contracts, while London cocoa futures failed to follow, closing slightly lower across most tenors. This divergence highlights uneven market participation and suggests that recent strength remains concentrated in the US market.

Recent industry commentary points to a potentially supportive shift in cocoa demand dynamics. The Hershey Company indicated a return to using “classic milk and dark chocolate recipes” in its Reese’s products, suggesting that current cocoa price levels may now be economically viable for manufacturers to reduce reliance on cocoa butter equivalents. If replicated more broadly, this could support a gradual recovery in cocoa demand and be reflected in stronger grinding data later in the year.

Weather developments across West Africa remain broadly constructive. Improved rainfall across Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire into late March and early April is supporting crop development, with farmers reporting better pod formation and expectations for improved bean size. In Ghana, cumulative rainfall remains adequate despite earlier variability, maintaining favorable soil moisture conditions. Overall, the timely onset of the rainy season reinforces expectations for a stable mid-crop outlook.

At the same time, the broader fundamental picture remains mixed. While improved arrivals and favorable weather are easing near-term supply tightness, structural risks persist. The market continues to face challenges related to productivity, input costs, and sensitivity to weather conditions in key producing regions, which could re-emerge as more significant factors further along the curve.

Input costs are becoming increasingly relevant. Elevated fertilizer prices may discourage application rates among producers, particularly in West Africa, potentially weighing on yields in the next production cycle. This introduces forward-looking supply risk, even as current conditions appear more balanced.

On the supply side, increased arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire suggest that previously delayed volumes are now reaching the market, improving short-term availability and contributing to the softer tone observed in deferred contracts. Looking further ahead, climate remains a key variable, with growing attention on a potential shift toward El Niño conditions later in the year, which historically tends to bring less favorable growing conditions for cocoa.

According to Ousmane Attai Ouedraogo, Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector continues to demonstrate strong export resilience despite ongoing tensions between the CCC and producer groups. As of end-March 2026, raw bean exports increased by 11.56% year-on-year to 117,468 tonnes, compared to 105,291 tonnes a year earlier. However, performance across processed products is more mixed, with cocoa paste exports declining by 7.14%, while cocoa butter rose by 1.01% and cocoa powder exports surged by 30.46%, highlighting shifting demand dynamics.

Despite these solid export figures, underlying domestic challenges persist. The accumulation of uncollected residual stocks, estimated at several tens of thousands of tonnes, is weighing on the internal market and slowing the rollout of the mid-crop. Ongoing tensions and unilateral decision-making within the CCC risk deepening mistrust among producers and could disrupt the smooth flow of cocoa to export channels. If unresolved, these issues may introduce additional volatility into supply dynamics in the near term.

Futures Performance

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

The NY cocoa curve extended its recovery on 1 April, with gains concentrated in the nearby and mid-tenor contracts. The magnitude of the move clearly diminished along the curve, confirming a bull-flattening structure, as front-month contracts outperformed deferred maturities. This pattern is consistent with continued short covering and re-engagement in the liquid part of the curve, rather than a wholesale shift in longer-term price expectations. The reduced participation further out suggests that conviction remains tactical, with the back end still anchored by more cautious positioning.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

In contrast, London cocoa futures softened across the curve, with losses more pronounced in deferred contracts. This resulted in a mild bear-steepening profile, as the front end held relatively better while the back end weakened. The divergence versus NY highlights a lack of follow-through buying in the London market and suggests that bullish positioning remains less established. The pressure in longer-dated contracts points to ongoing caution around forward fundamentals, with participants more willing to reduce exposure further out the curve than in the nearby structure.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Activity was relatively muted in exchange-for-physical and exchange-for-swap flows, with only 1 EFP and 80 EFS reported. In contrast, spread volume was elevated at 7,569 lots, indicating that the session’s strength was primarily driven by intra-curve positioning rather than outright physical or OTC-linked flows. The dominance of spread trading reinforces the bull-flattening dynamic, as participants adjusted curve exposure, likely rolling or tightening nearby/deferred spreads, rather than initiating significant new outright length via EFP/EFS channels.

London saw no EFP activity, while EFS reached 1,337 lots, indicating a stronger presence of swap-related positioning compared to NY. Spread volume totaled 4,756 lots, showing moderate intra-curve activity but at a lower intensity than in the US market. The combination of higher EFS and weaker outright price action suggests that flows were more defensive, potentially linked to hedging or basis-related adjustments rather than directional buying.

US–UK May Spread

$3,367 − (2475 x 1.324$/£) =$90ton (up from $-13)

Volume and Open Interest

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

Trading activity remained elevated following the sharp rebound on 31 March, with 01-Apr volume at 45,778 lots, down from the spike of 53,729 lots the previous session but still materially above the recent run-rate (~25–35k). This indicates continued active participation, albeit with slightly reduced urgency after the initial reversal.

Open interest (last available on 31 March) increased to 203,517 lots, extending the steady build seen throughout the second half of March (from ~190k to >200k). The combination of rising OI into 31 March alongside strong price gains, followed by still-heavy volume on 1 April, suggests that the move is not purely short covering. Instead, it points to a mix of new length entering the market and position reallocation, particularly in the front and mid-curve where price strength has been most pronounced.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

London volumes remained more subdued in comparison, with 27,918 lots traded on 01-Apr, broadly in line with the upper end of its recent range but without the same spike seen in NY. Activity has been relatively stable, typically oscillating between 20k–28k lots, indicating a more measured participation profile.

Open interest continued to trend higher through March, reaching 213,927 lots on 31 March, up from ~200k mid-month. However, this increase in OI contrasts with the softer price action observed on 1 April. The combination of rising OI and declining prices suggests new short positioning or increased hedging pressure, particularly in deferred contracts where weakness was more pronounced.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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What to expect tomorrow

The current technical setup across timeframes suggests that cocoa is transitioning from a corrective rebound into a short-term momentum phase, but the move is starting to look extended. On the daily chart, prices remain below the major moving averages (90-, 150-, and 200-day), which keeps the broader trend technically bearish. However, the recent price action shows a clear base formation with higher lows, indicating that a recovery phase is underway. On the hourly timeframe, the market has broken out of the prior consolidation range around 3150–3200 and is now trading above short-term averages, confirming positive near-term momentum.

Intraday structure supports this view, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows during the latest session. That said, momentum indicators are beginning to level off. RSI is no longer in oversold territory and is approaching neutral-to-positive levels, while stochastic indicators are nearing overbought conditions. Price action is also starting to flatten near the 3345–3370 zone, suggesting that upward momentum is slowing as the market approaches resistance.

From a levels perspective, the immediate resistance lies in the 3365–3380 range, which aligns with the recent intraday highs. A break above this area would open the way toward the next resistance around 3450, which is more significant from a daily structure standpoint. On the downside, initial support is seen at 3300–3320, corresponding to the recent breakout base, followed by stronger support around 3200–3220, where the prior consolidation developed.

In terms of market dynamics, the recent upward move appears largely driven by short covering and positioning adjustments rather than a broad-based shift in fundamentals. While volume remains elevated, it is not expanding further, indicating that the momentum phase is stabilizing rather than accelerating. The improvement in OBV does point to some buy-side participation, but not at a level that would suggest aggressive new long positioning.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the most likely scenario is a period of consolidation or a mild pullback within a 3300–3380 range. The market has moved higher without a meaningful retracement and is now testing resistance with waning momentum, which typically leads to a pause. A continuation higher is still possible, but it would require a clean break above 3380 supported by renewed volume, which could then push prices toward 3420–3450. Conversely, a rejection at current levels would likely lead to a pullback toward 3300 and potentially 3220, which would be viewed as a technical correction rather than a reversal of the short-term recovery.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.