Daily Cocoa Market Report (10 Feb 2026): Heavy Liquidation Hits Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures extended their sharp decline on February 10, with both New York and London markets closing significantly lower across the forward curve. In ICE US (CC), the March 2026 contract fell 206 points to close at 3,778, May declined 194 points to 3,870, July lost 201 points to 3,924, September dropped 208 points to 3,985, and December fell 202 points to 4,072. The decline was uniform across the curve, reflecting aggressive liquidation rather than isolated contract weakness.

ICE London cocoa futures mirrored the move. March 2026 fell 183 points to 2,758, May declined 169 points to 2,786, July dropped 165 points to 2,830, September lost 168 points to 2,874, and December eased 158 points to 2,934. The synchronized downside action across both exchanges confirms strong momentum selling.

Fundamentally, pressure continues to build from West Africa. Farmers in Ivory Coast reported favorable growing conditions for the main crop but highlighted an excess of unsold beans with deteriorating quality. In Ghana, COCOBOD stated that international buyers have turned away from Ghanaian beans due to elevated costs, with total export expenses estimated near 6,300 dollars per ton.

Ghana is preparing to hold an emergency cabinet meeting to address the crisis, partly linked to weak global demand.

A critical development comes from TRS, which maintained its 2025/26 global surplus forecast at 111,000 metric tons. TRS did not observe a significant certified inventory buildup in Côte d’Ivoire sufficient to offset the reported 100,000 metric tons of unsold beans and agrees with Ghana’s estimate of approximately 50,000 metric tons of unsold supply. Recent rains have reportedly been adequate, canopy health remains strong, and harvest expectations are constructive. TRS also noted that industry hedging may begin near current price levels. If surplus expectations hold and forward hedging increases, rallies are likely to encounter systematic selling pressure, reinforcing the current contango structure.

Technically, the decisive break below the 4,000 level in New York accelerated downside momentum, with elevated trading volumes confirming active participation in the move. Rising certified stocks in the United States and the absence of immediate physical tightness further weaken the bullish supply narrative. The market is increasingly transitioning from a scarcity-driven environment toward a rebalancing phase, with downside risks remaining dominant unless a meaningful structural recovery develops.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

On 10 February 2026, cocoa futures extended their decline with broad-based, synchronized selling across the front five contracts in both New York and London, confirming heavy liquidation pressure rather than isolated contract weakness. In ICE US (CC), the March–December 2026 strip fell between 194 and 208 points, averaging roughly -202 pts, with September posting the steepest drop (-208). ICE London (C) mirrored the move, losing 158 to 183 points across the same maturity range, averaging about -169 pts, with the largest pressure in March (-183). The parallel shift lower across the curve indicates systematic long liquidation, most likely fund-driven, rather than a structural change in spread relationships, as the contango profile remains intact. This was a momentum-driven selloff affecting the entire forward curve, signaling aggressive risk reduction rather than a targeted reassessment of near-term supply fundamentals.

US–UK Spread

3,778 − (2,758 x 1.364$/£) =$16 ton (up from $-18.7/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

Volume expanded materially into the February 10 selloff, reaching 64,411 contracts. This confirms strong participation during the downside move. In the sessions leading up to the break, open interest had been elevated and relatively stable in the 161k to 162k range, indicating that positioning was already built up before the decline accelerated.

The combination of previously firm open interest and a sharp surge in volume on a heavy price drop strongly suggests long liquidation pressure rather than thin-market weakness. The market was crowded, and when price momentum turned lower, participation intensified. This behavior is characteristic of systematic de-risking rather than fresh structural short building.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London mirrors the pattern seen in New York. Volume surged to 48,779 contracts on February 10, well above the preceding sessions. Prior to the breakdown, open interest had been elevated in the 180k–183k range, indicating sustained participation and significant exposure in the market.

The spike in volume accompanying a broad price decline signals active liquidation rather than passive repositioning. The structure of trading suggests that positions accumulated during late January and early February were pressured by momentum-driven selling. As in New York, this was not a liquidity vacuum but an engaged market unwinding risk.

Certified Cocoa Inventory Stocks

What to Expect Tomorrow

Cocoa remains in a strong multi-timeframe downtrend with price trading well below all major moving averages on the intraday, daily, and weekly charts, confirming dominant bearish structure. Momentum indicators show oversold conditions on the 1-hour and short-term charts, which increases the probability of a technical bounce early in the next session, potentially toward the 3,820 to 3,860 area. However, unless price can reclaim and hold above 3,900 with strong upside volume, any rebound is likely to be corrective rather than structural. If 3,760 to 3,770 breaks decisively, downside continuation toward 3,720 and possibly 3,680 becomes likely. Overall, the prevailing trend remains lower, and rallies should be viewed as temporary unless a clear shift in structure and momentum develops.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.