Daily Cocoa Market Report (10 March 2026): Cocoa Markets Rally While Analysts Forecast Modest Price Recovery by End-2026

Cocoa futures extended their strong upward momentum on 10 March, with both New York and London contracts registering significant gains across the forward curve. The rally followed already strong performance on 9 March and indicates persistent buying pressure throughout the cocoa market.

A Reuters poll of traders and analysts suggests that cocoa prices may stage a moderate recovery by the end of 2026, although they are expected to remain significantly below the record highs reached in 2024. The survey of 10 market participants indicates that London cocoa futures could close 2026 at around £2,750 per metric ton, representing a 16.6% increase from current levels, but still about 37% lower than prices at the end of 2025.

In the United States, New York cocoa futures are forecast to end the year near $3,350 per ton, a 1.9% rise from Monday’s close, but roughly 45% below the levels seen at the end of 2025. Analysts attribute the expected recovery mainly to improving demand conditions as lower cocoa prices begin to filter through to consumers and chocolate manufacturers.

Cocoa prices have fallen sharply since the historic rally in 2024, when supply shortages pushed futures to record highs. Since then, prices have declined significantly as chocolate producers responded to the earlier surge by reducing cocoa content in products and substituting alternative fats, which weakened demand.

At the same time, production prospects have improved. Favorable weather conditions across West Africa have supported better crop development, while farmers have increased pruning and crop care following the exceptionally high prices of the past two seasons.

The Reuters poll forecasts a global cocoa surplus of approximately 308,000 metric tons for the 2024/25 season (October–September), reversing the estimated 62,500-ton deficit recorded in 2024/25.

Production growth in major producing countries is expected to contribute to the surplus. Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is projected to reach around 1.81 million tons in 2025/26, up from 1.68 million tons in the previous season, while Ghana’s crop could increase to about 630,000 tons, compared with 590,000 tons previously.

In addition, Ecuador, the world’s third-largest cocoa producer and an increasingly influential supplier, is expected to raise production to 622,500 tons in 2025/26, up from 572,500 tons in the prior season.

Analysts believe that while improved supply conditions will keep prices below previous peaks, stronger chocolate demand later in 2026 could support a gradual recovery, particularly as lower cocoa prices begin to stimulate consumption again.

Futures Performance

ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)

New York cocoa futures experienced strong upward movement across the main delivery months.

The May-26 contract, currently the most actively traded month, increased by 103 points as trading volume reached over 19,000 contracts. The July-26 contract showed a slightly stronger gain of 105 points, while September-26 recorded the largest increase at 118 points, highlighting particularly strong buying interest further along the curve.

The December-26 contract also advanced by 111 points, reinforcing the bullish forward structure. This pattern indicates that market participants expect continued supply tightness through the next harvest cycles.

Trading activity remained concentrated in the May and July contracts, while the forward months showed progressively lighter volumes.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London cocoa futures followed the same bullish trajectory seen in New York.

The March-26 contract posted the strongest gain, rising by 101 points as it approached expiration. The May-26 contract gained 93 points, supported by strong trading activity exceeding 10,000 contracts.

Further along the curve, July-26 rose by 89 points, while September-26 increased by 83 points and December-26 by 79 points. Although gains gradually tapered toward the back of the curve, the upward movement across all maturities confirms widespread buying interest.

The London market also showed significant spread activity, indicating active positioning between contract months.

Forward Curve

In New York, the curve remains in a clear contango structure, where forward contracts trade at progressively higher prices than nearby months. The May-26 contract closed at 3,425, while December-26 reached 3,606, a spread of 181 points. This upward slope reflects expectations that supply tightness may persist into the 2026/27 season.

London futures show a similar structure. The May-26 contract closed at 2,473, while December-26 reached 2,571, creating a forward premium of 98 points. The relatively smaller slope compared with New York is typical because the London contract is denominated in GBP and reflects different hedging flows from European grinders.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

In the New York cocoa market, 651 EFP (Exchange for Physical) transactions and 57 EFS (Exchange for Swaps) were recorded. EFP transactions typically represent physical market participants converting futures positions into physical cocoa exposure, often used by exporters and grinders to align futures hedges with physical delivery commitments. The presence of EFS trades indicates some participation from swap market counterparties, although activity remained relatively limited compared with the overall futures volume.

The London cocoa market recorded 681 EFP trades and 108 EFS transactions, suggesting a slightly higher level of physical and OTC-linked hedging activity in the European cocoa market. This is consistent with London’s stronger connection to the physical cocoa trade and European processing industry.

Spread trading remained particularly active across both exchanges. New York recorded 22,337 spread contracts, while London reported 16,516 spread trades. High spread volume typically signals institutional positioning along the forward curve rather than outright directional trading, as funds and commercial hedgers adjust exposure between nearby and deferred contracts.

US–UK May Spread

$3,425 − (2473 x 1.341$/£) =$108 ton (down from $123/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)

New York cocoa trading volumes showed a mid-week slowdown followed by a partial recovery. The lowest activity occurred on March 5 (32,496 contracts) before rebounding to 45,025 contracts on March 6, the strongest trading day of the week.

Volume eased slightly on March 9 and March 10 but remained near the weekly average. Importantly, open interest stayed relatively stable around 190,000 contracts, indicating that the market rally was not accompanied by a significant build-up of new speculative positions.

The stability in open interest suggests that part of the recent price increase may have been driven by short covering and spread repositioning rather than large inflows of new long positions.

ICE London Cocoa Futures

London cocoa futures showed lower trading activity compared with New York, which is typical given the contract's stronger linkage to physical hedging flows rather than speculative trading.

Volumes increased sharply from 21,831 contracts on March 4 to over 33,000 contracts on March 6 and March 9, indicating stronger participation as prices began to move higher.

Open interest climbed to 206,670 contracts on March 6, suggesting new positions entering the market. However, it fell slightly by March 9, implying that some traders may have taken profits or closed positions during the rally.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

What to expect tomorrow

Cocoa futures (May-26) are showing short-term bullish momentum after the recent rebound from the ~3000 support area, with price currently around 3447. On the hourly and intraday charts, the market is trading above the short-term moving averages and momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) are turning upward, suggesting buyers remain active. However, the broader daily trend is still downward and the market is approaching strong resistance near 3500, which could slow the rally. For the next session, cocoa is likely to trade in a consolidation range between roughly 3380 and 3520, with a slight upward bias. A break above 3500 could extend the rebound toward 3600, while failure to hold 3350–3400 support would likely trigger another pullback.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.