Daily Cocoa Market Report (11 Feb 2026): Ghana Intervenes to Stabilize COCOBOD Amid Liquidity and Debt Pressures

CE US cocoa futures extended losses on 11-Feb, with Mar-26 settling at 3,765 (-13 pts / -0.34%). In London, losses were sharper on a percentage basis, with Mar-26 at 2,738 (-20 / -0.73%).

Cocoa sales from Ivory Coast and Ghana remain slow, with exporters facing difficulty placing volumes at current international prices. Futures continue to trade far below the official farm-gate levels of $5,100 in Ivory Coast and $5,278 in Ghana, creating a clear disconnect between exchange pricing and origin expectations. Investment funds recognize this gap and maintain sizeable net short exposure of 13,451 contracts in New York and 23,979 in London, including both futures and options positions. Given this positioning and the ongoing increase in certified stocks, there is little incentive for funds to reduce shorts aggressively. A sustained wave of short covering would likely require either lower origin pricing alignment or a material supply-side disruption.

Cocoa buyers in Ivory Coast are delaying purchases of beans from the upcoming mid-crop, waiting for more favorable pricing conditions. Although the mid-crop is projected at roughly 400,000 to 450,000 tons, reported sales so far are below 100,000 tons, indicating slow commercial activity at current price levels.

Ghana’s cocoa sector has moved into a full-scale crisis phase, prompting emergency government intervention aimed at stabilising the industry. The Ministry of Finance, after high-level deliberations, has announced measures to expedite delayed payments to cocoa farmers and inject liquidity into the cocoa procurement system, addressing operational paralysis caused by cash shortages at the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD). This crisis extends beyond a routine funding gap: COCOBOD has accumulated significant debt due to reliance on syndicated financing and forward sales contracts struck at lower prices before global cocoa price volatility, squeezing margins and tightening liquidity. Farmer groups and civil society are pressuring leadership change amid growing dissatisfaction over unpaid arrears, though no official dismissal has occurred yet. While the rescue measures may ease immediate payment delays, structural weaknesses in debt management and pricing mechanisms remain unresolved, meaning similar stress events could recur unless deeper reform is undertaken.

Ghana Moves to Rescue COCOBOD

Ghana’s cocoa sector is entering a decisive moment as emergency government intervention, mounting farmer arrears, and leadership pressure at the Ghana Cocoa Board converge into a full-scale institutional crisis. Developments over the past days confirm that the situation is no longer a routine liquidity issue but a structural stress

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Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

Front vs Back Spread Behavior

In the US market, percentage losses increase progressively toward the back end of the curve, with Dec-26 showing the largest decline (-0.59%). This indicates mild back-end pressure, suggesting longer-dated risk premium is being reduced more aggressively than nearby contracts. The curve remains in contango (Dec above Mar), but the steeper decline in deferred months implies a slight flattening bias driven by easing longer-term supply risk pricing rather than front-end panic.

In London, weakness is more concentrated in the front-to-mid section (Mar through Sep), with May-26 showing the largest percentage drop (-0.83%). The back end (Dec-26) declined less. This behavior suggests front-end softening relative to deferred contracts, which marginally steepens the curve. That typically signals reduced nearby tightness or speculative long liquidation in the prompt structure rather than structural long-term bearishness.

US–UK Spread

3,765 − (2,738 x 1.362$/£) =$35.8 ton (up from $16/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

In ICE Cocoa (CC), the critical session is Feb 10, where volume spikes to 64,411 — the highest in the five-day window, while open interest continues to edge higher. This indicates that the sharp price break was accompanied by fresh participation, not mass liquidation. If the move were purely long liquidation, open interest would have contracted materially. Instead, stable-to-rising OI signals that new short exposure likely replaced exiting longs. Feb 11 volume remains elevated (54,806), confirming that repositioning is ongoing rather than exhausted.

ICE UK Cocoa (London C)

Certified Cocoa Inventory Stocks

Certified stocks represent cocoa that is immediately eligible for delivery against ICE contracts, so a rapid inflow directly reduces scarcity premium in the front months. This development aligns with the recent price weakness and elevated volume: the market is not just selling on sentiment, it is being reinforced by tangible supply entering exchange warehouses.

The size of the US increase suggests active certification activity, likely from merchants or trade houses moving physical cocoa into deliverable status. This behavior typically reflects either soft nearby physical demand, favorable warehouse arbitrage economics, or defensive hedging ahead of expected further price pressure. Importantly, rising certified stocks reduce the probability of a front-month squeeze, which gives short sellers greater confidence to maintain or add positions. Structurally, such inventory expansion tends to pressure the front end of the curve more than deferred contracts, flattening any backwardation or reinforcing contango conditions.

What to Expect Tomorrow

Across all major timeframes the structure remains clearly bearish. Price is trading below all key moving averages on the daily and weekly charts, momentum indicators remain weak, and OBV continues to trend lower, indicating distribution rather than accumulation. The recent breakdown toward the 3,760 area has not been followed by any meaningful reclaim of prior resistance near 3,820–3,900, and moving averages on the hourly chart are stacked bearishly, acting as dynamic resistance. While short-term oscillators are oversold and could allow for a minor relief bounce, there is no confirmed reversal structure. For tomorrow, the higher-probability scenario is either continued downside pressure or weak sideways consolidation, with risk of further decline if the 3,740 area breaks. A sustained move back above 3,820–3,850 on strong volume would be required to shift the immediate bearish bias.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.