Daily Cocoa Market Report (11 March 2026): Cocoa Futures Consolidate as Market Absorbs Recent Rally

Cocoa futures traded relatively quietly on 11 March, as the market entered a consolidation phase following the strong gains recorded earlier in the week. In New York, the May-26 contract closed slightly higher at 3,429, while deferred months continued to outperform, reflecting ongoing positioning along the forward curve. London cocoa futures also posted modest gains, with limited directional momentum. With no major fundamental news during the session, trading activity suggested that the market was absorbing and reassessing the developments from previous days, leading to more balanced price action.

Ivory Coast Sells Over 400,000 Tons of 2025/26 Cocoa Export Contracts

Ivory Coast has sold more than 400,000 metric tons of cocoa export contracts to local grinding companies for the 2025/26 season, according to sources cited by Reuters. The contracts were arranged by the country’s cocoa regulator, Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC), following the recent resumption of exporter purchases

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Cocoa Prices Expected to Recover Modestly by the End of 2026

Cocoa prices are projected to rise slightly above current levels by the end of 2026, although they are still expected to remain significantly below the record highs reached in late 2025. This outlook comes from a recent poll of traders and analysts conducted by Reuters. According to the survey, London

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Industry groups also reacted to the recent volatility in cocoa prices. Fairtrade International, a global fair-trade certification organization representing smallholder producers, warned that sharp declines in cocoa prices could threaten farmer incomes and increase economic pressure on cocoa-growing communities. The organization called on governments, traders, and chocolate manufacturers to support long-term purchasing commitments and living-income pricing mechanisms to improve income stability for cocoa farmers.

Futures Performance

ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)

The May-26 contract, the most actively traded month with more than 15,498 lots, closed 4 points higher at 3,429, showing limited movement in the nearby position as the market consolidated after the strong rally recorded the previous day.

Further along the curve, buying interest was noticeably stronger. The July-26 contract gained 12 points, while September-26 rose 15 points, indicating continued positioning by traders expecting tighter supply conditions later in the season. The most pronounced move occurred in the December-26 contract, which advanced 27 points to 3,633, reinforcing the bullish tone in deferred deliveries and suggesting that market participants continue to price in structural tightness extending into the 2026 harvest cycle.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

The March-26 contract posted the largest gain, rising 20 points to 2,472, supported by nearby demand and positioning around the front of the curve.

The May-26 contract, which recorded the highest trading activity with over 10,000 lots, added 6 points to close at 2,479, suggesting moderate continuation buying following the previous session’s rally.

Mid-curve contracts saw mixed momentum. July-26 gained 14 points, reflecting continued interest in forward coverage, while September-26 remained nearly unchanged, rising only 1 point.

Exchange-for-Physical (EFP), Exchange-for-Swap (EFS) and Spread Activity

Market activity on 11 March showed that trading was driven primarily by spread positioning rather than physical hedging flows.

In New York cocoa (CC), EFP volume reached 1,020 lots, with the vast majority (989 lots) concentrated in the May-26 contract, indicating moderate physical-market related adjustments between futures and underlying cocoa positions. EFS activity was limited at 183 lots, suggesting minimal participation from swap-linked hedging structures. By contrast, spread trading was very active at 20,235 lots, representing more than half of total futures turnover. The largest spread activity occurred in Jul-26 (7,840 lots) and Sep-26 (4,904 lots), showing strong calendar-spread positioning as traders adjusted exposure along the forward curve.

In London cocoa (C), the pattern was similar but with even stronger physical linkage. EFP reached 1,315 lots, again concentrated in May-26 (959 lots), indicating active physical hedge adjustments by commercial participants. EFS totaled 168 lots, reflecting modest swap-related activity. Spread volume reached 17,170 lots, driven primarily by May-26 (4,075 lots) and Jul-26 (3,798 lots) spreads, highlighting continued curve trading and roll activity between nearby and mid-curve contracts

Forward Curve

The New York cocoa forward curve steepened slightly on 11 March, with deferred contracts outperforming the nearby May contract. The limited move in the front month compared with stronger gains in Jul–Dec deliveries suggests positioning further along the curve rather than immediate supply pressure. High spread activity (over 20,000 lots) confirms active calendar roll and forward positioning by funds and commercial participants.

In London cocoa, the curve also remained in contango, though nearby spreads stayed relatively tight. The stronger performance of Jul and Dec contracts indicates continued forward coverage as traders position for potential supply tightness later in the season. Spread trading exceeding 17,000 lots highlights ongoing adjustments across the curve.

US–UK May Spread

$3,429 − (2479 x 1.341$/£) =$104 ton (down from $108/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)

Trading activity moderated slightly on 11 March, with total volume reaching 35,467 contracts, down from 41,114 on 10 March and below the recent peak of 58,822 recorded on 2 March. Despite the lower turnover, overall participation in the market remains relatively solid compared with early March levels.

Open interest on 10 March stood at 192,004 contracts, near the highest level of the past three weeks, indicating that the recent rally has been supported by new positioning rather than only short-covering. The increase in open interest through late February and early March suggests fresh capital entering the market, consistent with the continued upward bias in the forward curve.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London cocoa trading activity also eased slightly, with 29,606 contracts traded on 11 March, continuing the gradual decline from 33,443 on 9 March and 33,479 on 6 March. Compared with the higher volumes seen in February, market activity has shifted toward moderate but steady participation.

Open interest has declined gradually from above 218,000 contracts in late February to around 203,000 contracts by 10 March, indicating that part of the recent trading activity has involved position reduction and rollover into later contracts rather than aggressive new positioning.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

The technical structure for May-26 New York cocoa suggests the market is entering a short-term consolidation phase after the recent rebound from the early-March lows.

On the daily chart, price remains below the major long-term moving averages (90, 150, 200 SMA), confirming that the broader trend is still structurally bearish, even though the market has staged a recovery during the past week. Momentum indicators are improving: RSI has risen toward the mid-range near 46, MACD is turning upward, and stochastic is moving out of oversold territory, all indicating short-term bullish momentum building.

On the hourly and intraday charts, price is currently trading above the short-term averages (10, 20, 50 SMA) and holding in a tight sideways range around 3,420–3,450. This suggests the market is absorbing recent gains rather than aggressively reversing lower.

The most probable scenario is range trading with a slightly upward bias. If prices hold above 3,400, buyers may attempt another push toward 3,470–3,500. A break above that zone could trigger short covering and extend the recovery toward 3,550.

However, failure to hold 3,400 would likely bring the market back toward 3,360–3,370, where stronger support is expected.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.