Daily Cocoa Market Report (12 Feb 2026): Cocoa Extends Weekly Losses Amid Ghana Price Adjustment and Rising Inventory

The May 2026 New York cocoa futures contract extended its decline, settling at 3,606, down 159 points on the session. On a weekly basis, the contract has lost more than 13 percent, reflecting aggressive long liquidation. The recent decline was accompanied by a reduction in open interest, indicating position unwinding rather than new short accumulation. Selling pressure persisted into the close, with prices hovering near session lows and reinforcing the negative near-term technical structure.

On the fundamental side, Ghana has reduced its farmgate cocoa price to 41,392 cedis ($3,770) per metric ton for the remainder of the 2025/26 season, down from 58,000 cedis ($5280). The adjustment reflects the sharp correction in global cocoa prices from last year’s highs to near 4,600 dollars per ton and aims to restore competitiveness and normalize export demand.

The government also introduced a new financing framework based on domestically issued cocoa bonds, which will be managed by the regulator and repaid through future cocoa sales. Authorities intend to present legislation linking farmgate prices more directly to international benchmarks while guaranteeing farmers a minimum share of the Free On Board price. Clearing outstanding arrears and stabilizing farmer payments remain priorities as liquidity constraints have disrupted internal marketing flows.

Market sources indicate that Ghana still has roughly 150,000 tons from the 2025/26 crop available for marketing. At the same time, Local Cocoa Purchasers have reportedly sought financing support from Cocobod covering up to 300,000 tons, reflecting funding pressures within the domestic procurement system.

In Côte d’Ivoire, commercial activity remains uneven. Around 50,000 tons of the main crop are reportedly unsold, and forward marketing of the mid-crop has progressed more slowly than projected, with less than 100,000 tons sold out of the expected 400,000 to 450,000 tons.

From a contract perspective, attention is shifting toward May, which now carries the highest open interest in New York. March options expire tomorrow, and the March delivery period begins on February 23, with the final trading session ahead of delivery scheduled for February 20. The New York market will be closed on Monday.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

The structure of the move is technically important. The front of the curve fell more aggressively than the deferred months, producing a mild flattening of the forward curve. This pattern indicates that near-term risk premium was removed more forcefully than longer-dated supply expectations. Such a distribution is typical of speculative long liquidation rather than a fundamental shift in long-term supply-demand balance. The magnitude of the decline, exceeding four percent in the front months, is statistically significant for cocoa and reflects an expansion in volatility regime rather than ordinary daily fluctuation.

The consistency of losses across all maturities suggests systematic selling pressure. When declines occur uniformly across the curve with larger losses concentrated in nearby contracts, the driver is usually positioning adjustment rather than physical market information. There is no sign of isolated contract stress; instead, the entire US cocoa curve repriced lower in a coordinated manner.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

The percentage losses in London were consistently larger than those observed in New York. This differential suggests heavier liquidation or greater speculative exposure in the sterling-denominated contract. Similar to the US market, the front of the curve experienced the largest percentage contraction, indicating that immediate supply tightness concerns were repriced downward more aggressively than long-term structural expectations.

The uniform nature of the decline across all contract months reinforces the interpretation of a coordinated risk-off event rather than a localized technical correction. The absence of divergence between nearby and deferred months indicates that this was not driven by a specific delivery issue or physical bottleneck. Instead, it reflects broad sentiment reversal and position unwinding.

Contango vs Backwardation

Both ICE US (CC) and ICE London (C) cocoa curves remain in contango, meaning deferred contracts are priced higher than nearby contracts.

However, what matters is not just direction but slope behavior. The curve flattened materially during the selloff. Front months declined more aggressively than deferred months. That compresses the premium between nearby and back contracts. Flattening within a contango structure indicates that immediate tightness or urgency premium is being reduced faster than long-term expectations.

True structural backwardation would require nearby contracts to trade above deferred months. That is not currently the case. The market is still pricing higher long-term values than near-term delivery. Therefore, the narrative is not “tight now, loose later.” It is more accurately “liquidation now, structural uncertainty later.”

US–UK Spread

3,606 − (2,605 x 1.362$/£) =$58 ton (up from $36/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

The ICE US Cocoa market shows a clear buildup of participation into early February followed by signs of liquidation into the 12 February price break. Volume increased from the 32,000 to 52,000 range in late January to 64,411 on February 10, then remained elevated at 54,806 on February 11 and 55,413 on February 12. This sustained high activity confirms that the decline occurred with strong market participation.

Open interest in New York rose steadily from 148,561 on January 26 to a peak of 162,798 on February 10, indicating that new positions were being added during the advance. It then declined to 161,681 on February 11 just before the major selloff. When prices fall, volume expands, and open interest begins to contract, the typical interpretation is long liquidation rather than aggressive new short selling. The data supports the view that existing long positions were unwound.

London cocoa shows an even stronger buildup. Open interest increased from 168,497 on January 27 to 192,402 on February 11, a substantial expansion in exposure. Volume surged to 60,325 on February 12, the highest reading in the period. The combination of heavy volume and a sharp price decline strongly suggests liquidation of crowded long positions.

Overall, both markets display the same structure. Open interest expanded into early February, then prices broke lower with very high volume. This pattern indicates position-driven selling rather than a structural shift in fundamentals.

Cocoa ICE Stocks

The two-day increase from 10 to 12 February equals 63,477 bags. That is a material expansion in deliverable supply over a very short window.

This confirms that warehouse inflows are accelerating during the price decline. Rising certified inventory during falling futures prices typically indicates easing tightness. The market is not facing immediate physical shortage in the US system at this moment.

The broader pattern since January is one of steady rebuilding. The US system is moving back toward comfort levels after earlier depletion.

Over the broader dataset, EU stocks fluctuate within a relatively narrow range around the mid-550,000 to high-560,000 level. There is no acceleration, no surge, and no visible stress.

This stability suggests that the recent supply shift is concentrated in the US system rather than being globally synchronized.

What to Expect Tomorrow

On the 5-minute and 1-hour charts, price is trading below the 10, 20, 90, 150 and 200 moving averages. The short-term averages are stacked downward and expanding, which confirms active downside momentum rather than consolidation. RSI on the intraday charts is weak and hovering near oversold territory, but not showing strong bullish divergence. MACD remains negative and below signal on both lower timeframes, indicating momentum has not yet turned.

On the daily chart, price has broken down from the prior consolidation range and is trading well below the 20-day and 90-day moving averages. The daily RSI is sliding toward the lower band but is not yet at extreme historical capitulation levels. OBV is declining, which confirms distribution rather than absorption. Volume expanded during the breakdown phase, validating the move.

For tomorrow, the base case is continuation pressure early in the session. Markets that close weak and at or near session lows frequently attempt a marginal lower extension before stabilizing. The key level is the 3600 to 3620 zone. A clean break below 3600 increases probability of acceleration toward the next psychological region around 3500. If 3600 holds intraday, a technical bounce toward 3680 to 3720 is possible, but that would likely be corrective unless strong volume enters on the buy side.

Given the liquidation characteristics we discussed earlier, a short-covering bounce is possible, but it would require clear intraday absorption and declining sell volume. Without that, momentum favors another probe lower.

The bias for tomorrow is bearish with risk of continuation, but volatility is elevated, so expect wide intraday ranges rather than smooth directional movement.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.