Daily Cocoa Market Report (12 March 2026): Cocoa Market Faces Supply and Policy Shifts as Prices Weigh on Producers

• Ghana’s COCOBOD assured farmers that there will be no further reductions in the cocoa farmgate price, aiming to stabilize producer confidence amid falling global prices.
• Brazil’s plans for large-scale cocoa plantations are slowing sharply after the recent price decline, with industry estimates suggesting that around half of the proposed projects may be cancelled as current prices do not cover investment costs.
• Ivory Coast is considering reforms to its cocoa marketing system following a buildup of unsold cocoa stocks after the drop in international prices.

Cocoa futures moved lower on 12 March, with both the New York and London markets recording declines across most contracts following the previous session’s gains. In New York, the May-26 contract fell 93 points to 3,336, while deferred deliveries also weakened, with Jul-26 closing at 3,407, Sep-26 at 3,471, and Dec-26 at 3,555. London cocoa futures followed a similar pattern, with the May-26 contract declining to 2,410, while the nearby Mar-26 contract dropped to 2,357 and deferred months also posted losses. Overall, prices moved lower across the curve, reflecting a broad pullback after the earlier rally.

Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, has assured farmers that there will be no further reductions in the farmgate cocoa price, aiming to stabilize confidence among producers following recent price cuts earlier this year. Officials also indicated that a price stabilization fund may be introduced to help protect farmers from future volatility in international markets.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, plans to develop large industrial-scale cocoa farms have slowed significantly after the sharp drop in global cocoa prices. According to industry estimates, nearly half of the proposed projects could be cancelled, as prices around $3,000 per ton are currently too low to justify the high investment costs required for large plantations. These projects had aimed to add roughly 75,000 hectares of cocoa farms, potentially supplying about 5% of global demand, but many investors are now reassessing their plans.

Brazil’s Large-Scale Cocoa Farming Ambitions Slow After Price Collapse

Brazilian farmers and investors are scaling back ambitious plans to develop large industrial cocoa farms after global prices plunged from record highs reached in 2024. The collapse in prices, which have fallen about 70% from last year’s peak, has weakened the economic case for major new planting projects that

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In West Africa, the Ivory Coast government is considering reforms to its cocoa marketing system after a sharp fall in global prices led to a buildup of unsold cocoa stocks. Authorities are evaluating ways to align government-set farmer prices more closely with international market levels and make the system more responsive to market conditions. The move comes after cocoa prices, which surged in 2024, have since dropped sharply to around $3,300 per ton, creating challenges for both farmers and exporters.

Ivory Coast Weighs Reform of Cocoa Marketing System Amid Price Collapse and Rising Stocks

Ivory Coast is examining possible reforms to its cocoa marketing framework in an effort to deal with mounting supplies and falling global prices, according to two government officials familiar with the discussions. Authorities are considering adjustments that would bring the price paid to farmers more closely in line with international

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Futures Performance

ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)

After falling sharply earlier in the session and reaching an intraday low near 3,307, the May-26 cocoa contract recovered a significant portion of the losses and settled around 3,336, indicating that buying interest emerged after the sell-off. The rebound allowed the market to regain a meaningful share of the earlier decline. On the daily chart, prices also held above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, which acted as short-term technical support during the pullback and helped stabilize the market toward the close.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

After declining earlier in the session and reaching an intraday low near 2,357, the May-26 London cocoa contract recovered part of the losses and settled around 2,410, indicating that buying interest emerged after the sharp sell-off. The rebound allowed prices to regain a portion of the earlier decline. On the daily chart, the market also held near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, which provided short-term technical support and helped stabilize prices toward the end of the session.

(EFP), (EFS) and Spread Activity

Exchange-for-Physical (EFP), Exchange-for-Swap (EFS) and spread activity indicate that much of the trading focused on position adjustments along the forward curve rather than outright directional bets. EFP transactions were concentrated in the May-26 contract (2,812 lots), suggesting active commercial hedging linked to physical cocoa transactions. EFS activity was more visible in Jul-26 (around 500 lots), reflecting swap-related positioning in mid-curve maturities. At the same time, calendar spread trading was particularly strong, with more than 25,000 spread lots traded, especially in the May-26 and Jul-26 contracts, indicating that participants were actively rolling positions and adjusting relative pricing between delivery months.

Forward Curve

The cocoa forward curve remained upward sloping, with prices increasing progressively along the delivery months. In New York, the May-26 contract closed at 3,336, followed by Jul-26 at 3,407, Sep-26 at 3,471, and Dec-26 at 3,555. A similar structure was observed in London, where May-26 settled at 2,410, rising to 2,459 for Jul-26, 2,487 for Sep-26, and 2,517 for Dec-26. This contango structure indicates that the market continues to price tighter supply conditions later in the season, with deferred contracts maintaining a premium over nearby deliveries.

US–UK May Spread

$3,336 − (2410 x 1.341$/£) =$104 ton (unchanged)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)

Trading activity in the cocoa futures market remained relatively moderate. In New York, total trading volume reached 39,901 lots on March 12, slightly higher than the 35,467 lots recorded on March 11, but still below the stronger activity observed earlier in the period, when volumes exceeded 50,000 lots in late February and early March. Open interest had previously risen steadily, reaching over 190,000 contracts in early March, indicating that market participation remained elevated despite the recent price pullback.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

In London, trading volumes were also stable. Total volume increased to 38,915 lots on March 12, compared with 29,606 lots on March 11, marking a noticeable pickup in activity after several sessions of lighter trading. Open interest remained broadly stable during the period, fluctuating around 203,000–208,000 contracts, suggesting that market participants largely maintained their positions while adjusting exposure along the forward curve.

For future price movements, this combination typically signals ongoing market engagement and the potential for further volatility. When prices decline but open interest remains high, it often indicates that new short positions may be entering the market, which can extend downward pressure in the short term. However, because overall positioning remains elevated, the market also retains the potential for sharp rebounds if buying interest returns or short positions begin to cover.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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What to expect tomorrow

Technically, the May-26 New York cocoa contract is attempting a short-term rebound after the recent sell-off. On the daily chart, prices stabilized above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, which are currently acting as near-term support around the 3,290–3,300 area. Momentum indicators also show early improvement: RSI has moved higher from oversold territory, while stochastic momentum has turned upward, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing.

On the shorter time frames, the hourly and 5-minute charts show a gradual upward channel forming after the sharp drop earlier in the week, with prices steadily recovering toward the 3,320–3,340 zone. This area now represents the first important intraday resistance, where the market previously broke down. If buying interest continues during the European and U.S. sessions, prices may attempt to test the 3,350–3,380 region, which coincides with nearby moving averages and previous intraday consolidation.

However, the broader trend remains fragile. If the market fails to break above 3,340–3,350, prices may return to consolidation. Immediate support lies around 3,300, followed by stronger support near 3,270–3,250, which marked the recent intraday lows.

The most likely scenario for tomorrow’s session is continued intraday consolidation with a slight upward bias, with trading expected between roughly 3,300 and 3,360 unless new fundamental catalysts emerge.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.