Daily Cocoa Market Report (13 Jan 2026): Futures Correct, but Supply Risks Remain Elevated

The March 2026 New York cocoa contract closed sharply lower on Tuesday, settling at 5,213, down 193 points (-3.57%) compared with the 12 January close of 5,406. The contract opened firm at 5,471 and quickly pushed to an intraday high of 5,494 before coming under sustained selling pressure. Prices subsequently broke below the prior session’s low and fell to 5,051, marking the lowest level since late November. As seen in recent sessions, buying interest emerged near the lows, limiting further downside by the close.

Lindt & Sprüngli

Swiss chocolate producer Lindt & Sprüngli reported that organic sales rose 12.4% in 2025, modestly exceeding market expectations, as the company implemented price increases of roughly 19% to offset sharply higher cocoa costs. Full-year sales reached CHF 5.92 billion, above analyst consensus, despite a decline in sales volumes of around 6%, reflecting consumer resistance to higher prices for premium chocolate products.

Management acknowledged that higher pricing weighed on volumes, but indicated that most planned price increases have already been implemented. Looking ahead to 2026, analysts cautioned that volume growth could remain under pressure and that price growth may struggle to remain in the mid-single-digit range. Lindt guided for an operating margin increase at the lower end of its 20–40 basis point target range, with full annual results due in March.

Lindt shares initially traded higher following the announcement but later reversed, reflecting investor concern over demand elasticity and inventory trends. Analysts highlighted a notable divergence between Lindt’s reported European organic sales growth in the second half of 2025 and scanner data, which pointed to materially weaker retail demand through November. This discrepancy raised questions around potential inventory accumulation in Europe and the risk that future de-stocking could weigh on 2026 volumes.

The company, however, dismissed concerns of excessive inventory build-up, stating that stock levels remain within normal seasonal patterns and that it does not currently see a material risk to near-term demand.

Barry Callebaut

Separately, Barry Callebaut came under pressure after its rating was downgraded by a major European bank, citing expectations of a slow recovery in chocolate demand, which could weigh on earnings momentum and limit upside in the share price.

Trader Warns of Origin Tightness

A senior physical cocoa trader warned that the current market dynamic reflects a repeating structural failure in the cocoa sector, where futures prices are pushed lower in an effort to force origin selling rather than responding to genuine supply and demand signals. He argued that what is often described as price discovery is, in practice, price pressure applied to producers, a pattern that has historically led to underinvestment, farmer impoverishment, and ultimately severe supply shocks.

According to the trader, physical cocoa availability in Ecuador is already extremely tight, with January production estimated to be around 40 percent below last year, leaving exporters unable to source beans at current prices. He noted that delivering cocoa into ICE certified stocks is currently uneconomic, reinforcing resistance at origin. Despite this, futures prices are being used as a tool to test producers’ willingness to sell, rather than addressing the underlying causes of tight supply.

He further highlighted that with ICE inventories already low and physical flows slowing, the market has little margin for error. If origin continues to withhold supply, futures prices will ultimately need to move higher, not due to speculation, but because the physical cocoa will simply not be available. The commentary concluded that a sustainable cocoa market requires abandoning the practice of treating farmers as a pressure valve for futures markets and instead recognising them as the foundation of long term supply stability.

Ghana Political Party Raises Concerns Over Cocoa Sector Funding

The Western North branch of Ghana’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) has publicly warned that the cocoa sector is being neglected by government policy, highlighting a lack of operational funds for Licensed Buying Companies (LBCs) and an acute shortage of approved jute sacks needed for proper bean storage. According to the statement, insufficient funding has left many farmers unable to sell freshly harvested cocoa at the farm gate, forcing them to hold bagged produce for extended periods, and compelling buyers to use alternative sacks that compromise quality and violate export standards. The party cautioned that ongoing neglect could drive increased smuggling to neighboring countries, deepen rural poverty, and encourage farmers to abandon cocoa farms in favor of illegal mining or other activities. The group called on authorities, including the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), to immediately release adequate funds to LBCs and ensure nationwide availability of jute sacks, stressing that farmers need timely payment and effective buying operations to sustain the sector.

Grindings

Looking ahead, market participants are focused on upcoming regional grinding data, with European figures due Thursday morning, followed by North American data later in the day. Asian grinding statistics are expected on Friday, and will be closely watched for confirmation of demand trends amid elevated raw material costs.

Futures Performance

US – ICE Cocoa Futures (CC)

UK – ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

Contango / Backwardation

The cocoa futures term structure remained firmly in contango in both New York and London, with no evidence of backwardation across the forward curve. In the ICE US cocoa market (CC), prices rose steadily from Mar-26 at 5,213 to Sep-26 at 5,419, before flattening into Dec-26 at 5,419. The consistent upward slope through the mid-curve reflects a market that has eased immediate delivery stress following heavy front-month liquidation, while still embedding a substantial risk premium for structural supply tightness later in the year. The flattening beyond September suggests that longer-dated supply risks are already well priced and that incremental uncertainty further out the curve is no longer being aggressively bid.

In ICE London cocoa futures (C), the curve also remained in contango but with a markedly shallower profile. Prices edged up only marginally from Mar-26 at 3,844 to Dec-26 at 3,880, indicating continued firmness in nearby European physical supply despite the broader futures sell-off. The flatter London curve highlights stronger commercial participation and less speculative excess compared with New York, reinforcing the view that prompt cocoa availability in Europe remains constrained even as speculative length is reduced.

Overall, the absence of backwardation confirms that the sharp price correction has alleviated immediate delivery pressure rather than signalling a shift into surplus conditions. The market has transitioned from acute tightness to managed tightness, with forward prices continuing to reflect medium-term supply risk while near-term panic pricing has been unwound.

US–UK Spread

5,213 − (3,844 x 1.347$/£) = 35 USD (down from 104USD)

Volume and Open Interest

US – ICE Cocoa Futures (CC)

UK – ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

Trading activity on 13 January 2026 remained elevated but showed early signs of moderation following the extreme speculative surge seen late last week. In ICE US cocoa futures (CC), total volume eased to 65,743 lots, down from 70,127 on Monday and well below the 82,465 peak recorded on 9 January, confirming that the sharp price sell-off occurred on still-heavy but no longer accelerating participation. This profile is consistent with long liquidation rather than fresh short initiation, particularly after the aggressive upside momentum of the prior sessions. Open interest data for the session was not yet reported, but the sharp price decline combined with easing volumes strongly suggests a reduction in speculative length, especially in nearby contracts where price losses were most pronounced.

In ICE London cocoa futures (C), volume dropped more sharply to 27,719 lots from 50,570 on Monday, signalling a faster withdrawal of speculative participation following last week’s volatility. London open interest stood at 161,823 contracts as of 12 January, down from 164,902 on 9 January, reinforcing the view that recent price weakness has been driven primarily by position liquidation rather than aggressive new selling. The steeper contraction in London volumes, relative to New York, highlights the market’s more commercially anchored structure, where once speculative pressure subsides, activity normalises quickly.

Overall, the volume and open interest dynamics confirm that Tuesday’s sell-off was technically corrective, not structurally bearish. The combination of declining prices, heavy but fading volume, and falling open interest points to speculative risk reduction, rather than a deterioration in underlying supply-demand fundamentals. This supports the interpretation that the market has shifted from speculative excess toward consolidation, with price direction in the near term increasingly dependent on fresh fundamental catalysts rather than momentum-driven flows.

Certified Inventory Stocks

What to Expect Tomorrow

Based on the combined 5-minute, hourly, daily, and weekly charts for the March cocoa contract, the expectation for tomorrow is a sideways-to-lower session rather than a meaningful rebound. The weekly and daily trends remain firmly bearish, with price still in a broader downtrend, momentum indicators (RSI and MACD) negative, and volume confirming distribution rather than accumulation. The sharp selloff from the 6000–6200 area has transitioned into a consolidation that looks like a classic bear flag on the hourly chart, while the 5-minute structure shows weak, choppy attempts higher that are consistently sold into. Any early bounce toward the 5300–5450 zone is likely to meet selling pressure, with a drift back toward 5200–5150 the more probable outcome; a clean break of that support would open the door to a faster move toward the 5000 psychological level. A stronger upside move would require a sustained reclaim of 5400–5500 on expanding volume, but even then it would be corrective rather than a trend change. Overall, rallies should be treated as selling opportunities, with downside or sideways-lower price action the dominant risk for the next session.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.