Daily Cocoa Market Report (15 Jan 2026): Demand Fears Dominate Cocoa Market as Prices Stay Oversold
The March New York cocoa contract closed the session down $124 (-2.44%) at $4,966, extending the sell-off to fresh lows and marking the fifth consecutive session trading below the lower Bollinger Band, underscoring the persistence of downside pressure. Market conditions remain deeply oversold, with the Slow Stochastic Oscillator at 10.37, yet no meaningful technical rebound has materialized. Trading activity was subdued, with 37,598 contracts changing hands, but notably, the decline was accompanied by a rise of 1,165 contracts in open interest, signaling that new short sellers continued to enter the market at the lows for a second consecutive session, reinforcing bearish conviction rather than short-covering behavior.
On the fundamental side, Ecuador reported December exports of cocoa beans and semi-processed products at 63,019 metric tons, an increase of 8,595 tons (+15.79% year-on-year). For the first three months of the 2025/26 season, cumulative exports reached 210,667 metric tons, up 33,659 tons (+19.02%) from the same period last season, adding to near-term supply pressure.
Milling data released during the session further weighed on sentiment, with European fourth-quarter grindings falling to their weakest level for that quarter in 21 years, intensifying demand-side concerns.
In contrast, Malaysia’s Q4 grindings exceeded expectations, while Brazilian and Ivorian grindings also came in above industry estimates.
In North America, Q4 grindings rose by 356 tons (+0.35%) year-on-year to 103,117 tons, with 15 processing plants reporting versus 14 last year, a result broadly in line with market expectations and insufficient to offset weakness elsewhere.
Cocoa Intel
Asia cocoa grindings in Q4 2025 totaled 197,022 metric tonnes, representing a 4.82% year-on-year decline compared with Q4 2024. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, grindings increased by 8.90% from Q3 2025, indicating a seasonal rebound in processing activity toward year-end despite structurally weaker demand conditions.One grinding member did not submit data for the Q4 2025 survey conducted by the Cocoa Association of Asia. To preserve the integrity of year-on-year comparisons, historical data for this member from Q1 2024 onward has been excluded from the dataset. As a result, comparisons remain internally consistent but absolute volumes should be interpreted with caution when benchmarked against earlier multi-year trends.
Cocoa Intel
| Region / Country | Q4 2024 Grindings (mt) | Q4 2025 Grindings (mt) | YoY Change (mt) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe (total) | ~332,000* | 304,470 | ▼ ~27,500 | ▼ 8.3% |
| Germany | ~90,000* | 81,096 | ▼ ~8,900 | ▼ 9.9% |
| North America | 102,761 | 103,117 | ▲ +356 | ▲ 0.35% |
| Asia (total) | 207,030 | 197,022 | ▼ 10,008 | ▼ 4.82% |
| Malaysia | n/a | n/a | — | ▼ 6.8% |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 182,000 | 176,000 | ▼ 6,000 | ▼ 3.3% |
| Brazil | 59,660 | 51,816 | ▼ 7,844 | ▼ 13.1% |
| Global (aggregate) | ~973,000* | ~914,000* | ▼ ~59,000 | ▼ ~6.1% |
Futures Performance
US – ICE Cocoa Futures (CC)
| Contract | Close# 15 Jan | 14 Jan Settle | Point Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-26 | 4,979 | 5,078 | -99 |
| May-26 | 5,055 | 5,155 | -100 |
| Jul-26 | 5,128 | 5,240 | -112 |
| Sep-26 | 5,177 | 5,296 | -119 |
| Dec-26 | 5,190 | 5,292 | -102 |
UK – ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
| Contract | Close# 15 Jan | 14 Jan Settle | Point Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-26 | 3,677 | 3,733 | -56 |
| May-26 | 3,694 | 3,750 | -56 |
| Jul-26 | 3,713 | 3,773 | -60 |
| Sep-26 | 3,726 | 3,791 | -65 |
| Dec-26 | 3,723 | 3,787 | -64 |
Contango / Backwardation
The cocoa forward curves in both New York and London remain in contango, confirming the absence of immediate physical tightness despite historically low stock levels. In ICE US cocoa, the curve shows a clear upward slope from March through December 2026, with the strongest premiums concentrated at the front end, reflecting long liquidation and reduced urgency for nearby coverage rather than supply stress. ICE London cocoa displays a flatter contango structure, with only a marginal and statistically insignificant inversion between September and December, suggesting balanced forward supply expectations rather than true backwardation. Overall, the curve structure indicates that demand rationing, risk-off positioning, and confidence in improved forward availability are currently dominating price formation, rather than near-term supply constraints.
US–UK Spread
4,979 − (3,677 x 1.338$/£) = 59USD (down from 61USD)
Volume & Open Interest
US – ICE Cocoa Futures (CC)
| Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9 | 82,465 | 131,521 |
| Jan 12 | 70,127 | 135,612 |
| Jan 13 | 65,743 | 138,452 |
| Jan 14 | 58,102 | 139,617 |
| Jan 15 | 37,598 | N/A* |
Over the past five sessions, prices fell while open interest rose sharply, increasing by more than 8,000 contracts between 9 and 14 January. This is a textbook signal of new short positioning entering the market, rather than short-covering. Meanwhile, daily volume has declined consecutively, culminating in a sharp drop on 15 January, indicating that the intensity of liquidation is fading. This combination suggests that the bulk of forced long exits has already occurred, with the market now dominated by established short positions.
UK – ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
| Date | Total Volume | Total Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9 | 45,333 | 164,902 |
| Jan 12 | 50,570 | 161,823 |
| Jan 13 | 27,719 | 162,896 |
| Jan 14 | 30,714 | 160,237 |
| Jan 15 | 35,751 | N/A* |
London shows a different positioning dynamic over the same period. While prices declined, open interest peaked on 9 January and then fell by nearly 4,700 contracts into 14 January, indicating net position reduction rather than aggressive short-building. The recovery in volume on 15 January, without confirmation from open interest yet, points to two-way trade and short-term repositioning, suggesting London may be closer to a stabilization phase than New York.
Certified Inventory Stocks
| Market | 13.1.26 | 14.1.26 | Day-on-Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1,675,352 | 1,679,045 | +3,693 |
| UK | 563,125 | 563,125 | 0 |
What to Expect Tomorrow
US cocoa futures are expected to trade with a cautious, range-bound to mildly bearish bias in the next session after opening sharply lower on the back of weaker-than-expected EU grindings, which initially reinforced demand-destruction concerns. However, the market quickly recovered from the early dip and climbed back to the previous day’s closing level, signaling that selling pressure below the 4,950–5,000 zone is beginning to encounter short-term support rather than aggressive follow-through. Despite this intraday stabilization, the broader technical structure remains weak, with prices still capped below declining short- and medium-term moving averages and momentum indicators failing to confirm a sustained rebound. As a result, any upside attempts toward 5,050–5,150 are likely to attract selling, while a renewed break below 4,950 would reopen downside risk toward the mid-4,800s.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
