Daily Cocoa Market Report (16 March 2026): Cocoa Rises Despite Expectations of Strong Ivory Coast Mid-Crop
- Ivory Coast farmers expect a strong cocoa mid-crop, supported by healthy pod development despite below-average rainfall last week in several growing regions.
- However, rainfall remains uneven across regions, and continued dry conditions in some areas could still limit yields if weather does not improve.
- No Ivory Coast port arrival figures were published, leaving the market without updated data on export flows and current crop supply.
Cocoa futures advanced strongly on Monday, 16 March, reversing the weakness seen on 13 March. Both New York and London cocoa curves moved higher across the forward structure, with gains concentrated in the nearby contracts where trading activity remained strongest.
The rebound suggests renewed buying interest following last week’s consolidation, with speculative flows returning to the cocoa complex. The market also appears to be stabilizing after the earlier correction triggered by profit-taking following export-related demand signals from Côte d’Ivoire.
Market participants are also monitoring the broader supply outlook. Brokers noted that while the cocoa market found support earlier in the month after Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana addressed logistical issues related to supply backlogs, there are still expectations of relatively strong production this season, which could weigh on prices if confirmed.
Separately, no new cocoa port delivery figures from Côte d’Ivoire were published, leaving traders without updated data on export flows. The absence of updated arrival statistics adds uncertainty to short-term supply assessments, as port arrivals are one of the key indicators used by the market to estimate the size and pace of the current crop.
Weather
Recent reports from farmers in Côte d’Ivoire suggest that the 2026 cocoa mid-crop could be stronger than previously expected, potentially increasing supply during the April–August harvesting period. According to farmers cited in Abidjan, despite rainfall being below average in several cocoa-growing regions last week, soil moisture remains adequate and has supported healthy pod development. Farmers report that flowers, small pods, and medium-sized pods are developing well, which could lead to a longer and larger mid-crop harvest than last year if rainfall continues through the end of March.
Producers also indicated that pod development suggests the main concentration of the mid-crop harvest could occur between May and the first half of July. In southern regions such as Agboville, rainfall reached about 12.1 mm, helping trees remain productive, while some eastern areas such as Abengourou reported above-average rainfall that may support strong pod formation through early April.
However, weather conditions remain uneven across the country. Some regions including Daloa and parts of Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro experienced below-average rainfall, raising concerns among farmers that continued dryness could reduce the mid-crop size if conditions do not improve. Farmers also noted that lower rainfall could limit their ability to buy pesticides and maintain sufficient labor, which could affect yields later in the season.
Futures Performance
ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)
| Contract | 13-Mar-26 | 16-Mar-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 3,298 | 3,392 | +94 |
| Jul-26 | 3,364 | 3,458 | +94 |
| Sep-26 | 3,429 | 3,517 | +88 |
| Dec-26 | 3,502 | 3,581 | +79 |
| Mar-27 | 3,550 | 3,636 | +86 |
Cocoa futures moved higher on 16 March, reversing the weakness seen on 13 March and signaling a renewed wave of buying across the forward curve. The uniform gains across maturities suggest that the market experienced broad-based buying rather than a narrow short-covering move, indicating improving sentiment after the consolidation phase late last week.
ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
| Contract | 13-Mar-26 | 16-Mar-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-26 | 2,392 | 2,312 | -80 |
| May-26 | 2,420 | 2,487 | +67 |
| Jul-26 | 2,468 | 2,530 | +62 |
| Sep-26 | 2,500 | 2,555 | +55 |
| Dec-26 | 2,531 | 2,590 | +59 |
London cocoa futures showed a similar pattern in the deferred contracts, although the nearby Mar-26 contract declined from 2,392 to 2,312, a drop of 80 points, reflecting typical expiration-related pressure as the contract approaches delivery. Beyond the front month, however, the curve strengthened notably. This divergence between the expiring contract and the rest of the curve suggests that the weakness in Mar-26 is largely technical, while the broader market continues to reflect underlying support.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
Trading activity on 16 March showed a notable concentration in spread transactions, reflecting active positioning along the futures curve as traders adjusted relative value between contract months. In ICE New York cocoa futures, spread volume reached 20,057 lots, significantly exceeding outright block activity and highlighting that much of the day’s trading involved calendar spreads rather than single-leg speculative trades. The largest share of this spread activity occurred in the nearby contracts, with May-26 recording 5,225 spread lots, followed by Jul-26 with 7,024 lots, Sep-26 with 4,427 lots, and Dec-26 with 2,287 lots. This pattern suggests traders were actively managing nearby-to-deferred spreads, likely rolling positions forward or adjusting exposure as the market stabilized after the previous week’s consolidation.
Exchange-for-Physical (EFP) transactions in New York totaled 483 lots, indicating a moderate level of futures positions being exchanged for physical cocoa market exposure. These transactions were concentrated primarily in the May-26 contract, reflecting the role of the nearby contract as the main hedge vehicle for physical market participants. In contrast, Exchange-for-Swap (EFS) activity totaled 2,000 lots, all recorded in Jul-26, suggesting some participants used swaps to manage risk or transfer exposure between OTC and exchange markets.
In ICE London cocoa futures, EFP and EFS activity was more pronounced than in New York. Total EFP transactions reached 1,540 lots, while EFS trades totaled 2,406 lots, indicating active interaction between the futures market and the physical or OTC cocoa markets. The bulk of this activity occurred in the May-26, Jul-26, and Sep-26 contracts, consistent with the contracts that also recorded the highest outright trading volumes. London spread activity was also substantial, totaling 11,708 lots, reinforcing the view that traders were actively adjusting calendar spreads and managing forward curve exposure rather than simply initiating directional positions.
The dominance of spread trading relative to outright block transactions suggests that the market’s recent upward move is being accompanied by position rebalancing and curve adjustments, rather than purely speculative momentum buying. This type of activity is typical when the market transitions from a consolidation phase toward a new directional trend.
Forward Curve
The cocoa forward curve continued to maintain a clear contango structure, with prices gradually increasing along the maturity spectrum, reflecting the market’s pricing of tighter supply conditions in the near term and relatively stronger demand expectations further out on the curve.
The price differences between contracts also highlight the market’s carry structure. The May–Jul spread sits at approximately +66 points, while the Jul–Sep spread is around +59 points, followed by Sep–Dec at roughly +64 points and Dec–Mar-27 at about +55 points. These spreads remain relatively stable and orderly, suggesting that the market is not experiencing severe nearby supply stress, but instead is maintaining a balanced forward premium that supports rolling long positions forward through the curve.
In ICE London cocoa futures, the structure is similarly upward sloping beyond the expiring front month. Excluding the Mar-26 contract, which is affected by delivery pressure, prices rise from 2,487 in May-26 to 2,530 in Jul-26, then to 2,555 in Sep-26 and 2,590 in Dec-26. The spreads between these contracts remain consistent with the New York structure, confirming that both exchanges are reflecting the same underlying market dynamics.
The current forward curve configuration suggests a market that is not in immediate shortage but still pricing medium-term supply uncertainty, with deferred premiums reflecting ongoing concerns about global cocoa availability and crop prospects in West Africa. The orderly slope of the curve also indicates that traders are comfortable maintaining long exposure through calendar spreads, reinforcing the role of spread trading as a dominant feature of current market activity.
US–UK May Spread
$3,392 − (2487 x 1.322$/£) =$104 ton (up from $99)
Volume and Open Interest
ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Mar-26 | 41,114 | 192,004 |
| 11-Mar-26 | 35,467 | 189,585 |
| 12-Mar-26 | 39,901 | 189,541 |
| 13-Mar-26 | 29,758 | 188,663 |
| 16-Mar-26 | 40,221 | — |
Trading activity increased in ICE New York cocoa futures on 16 March, with total volume rising to 40,221 contracts, compared with 29,758 contracts on 13 March. This rebound in trading activity coincided with the market’s price recovery, suggesting that the upward move was supported by renewed participation rather than thin liquidity. Over the past three weeks, New York volumes have fluctuated mostly between 30,000 and 45,000 contracts, indicating a relatively stable trading environment after the extreme volatility earlier in the season. Open interest stood at 188,663 contracts on 13 March, slightly lower than earlier March levels near 192,000, which may indicate some position reduction during the recent consolidation phase.
ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Mar-26 | 29,926 | 203,055 |
| 11-Mar-26 | 29,606 | 203,504 |
| 12-Mar-26 | 38,915 | 202,875 |
| 13-Mar-26 | 33,610 | 200,297 |
| 16-Mar-26 | 25,963 | — |
In ICE London cocoa futures, trading activity remained more moderate. Total volume reached 25,963 contracts on 16 March, down from 33,610 contracts on 13 March, showing that the London market was somewhat quieter during the latest session. Open interest declined gradually from 208,532 contracts on 2 March to 200,297 contracts on 13 March, reflecting a slow reduction in outstanding positions as traders adjusted exposure across the forward curve. Overall, the combination of rising New York volumes and slightly declining open interest in both markets suggests that recent price movements are being driven largely by short-term repositioning and spread adjustments rather than aggressive new directional bets.
Exchange Trading Volume
| Date | ICE New York Cocoa (US) | ICE London Cocoa (UK) |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 2026 | 2,266,484 | 663,125 |
| 16 Mar 2026 | 2,273,550 | 712,500 |
| Change | +7,066 | +49,375 |
These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)
Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:
Cocoa Intel
What to expect tomorrow
Cocoa futures are currently trading around 3,400 in the May-26 New York contract, sitting in the middle of a short-term recovery that followed the rebound from the 3,200–3,220 support zone. Recent price action across the daily, hourly, and intraday charts suggests the market has entered a consolidation phase with a slight bullish bias, although strong resistance is very close. Momentum indicators show improving conditions: MACD is turning upward, RSI is near neutral around 55–60, and OBV has been rising, indicating that buying pressure has gradually increased during the recent recovery. However, the broader daily trend remains technically bearish since prices are still well below the longer-term moving averages.
Several key liquidity zones and institutional trading levels are shaping the near-term outlook. The most important resistance area lies between 3,470 and 3,500, where buy-stop liquidity and short-covering orders are likely concentrated. This level includes recent highs and the psychological 3,500 round number, meaning a breakout above it could trigger momentum buying and potentially push prices toward 3,550–3,600. On the downside, a cluster of sell stops is likely located around 3,300–3,320, where many long traders may have placed protective stops below recent support. A break below that level could accelerate selling and drive prices toward 3,250 or even back to the major support near 3,200.
The market is currently trading inside a neutral balance zone between roughly 3,250 and 3,450, where buyers and sellers are actively matching orders. This range often acts as a staging area before the market attempts to move toward the nearest liquidity pool above or below. Institutional traders frequently use this type of structure to trigger stop-runs before establishing the next directional move.
Cocoa is currently testing the upper boundary of a short-term recovery, and tomorrow’s direction will likely depend on whether buyers can break through the 3,470–3,500 resistance zone or whether sellers regain control and push the market back toward the 3,300 support region.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
