Daily Cocoa Market Report (18 Dec 2025): Cocoa Markets Consolidate as Volumes Thin Ahead of Year-End

Cocoa prices softened on Thursday as both New York and London extended their post-expiry consolidation phase. The market remains structurally tight, but near-term price action reflects profit-taking, physical rebalancing after the December contract expiry, and growing awareness of near-term supply inflows from origin. Volumes have eased from last week’s peak, while open interest trends suggest selective position trimming rather than broad liquidation.

As many market participants begin to wind down ahead of the Christmas holiday, trading will continue as normal on Monday and Tuesday. London will close early at 13:23 on 24 December and remain closed until 29 December, while New York will resume trading on 26 December with a delayed opening.

Cocoa arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire reached 894,000 metric tons as of December 14, down 0.1% year-on-year. Weekly deliveries totaled 91,000 tons, marking a second consecutive week below the 100,000-ton threshold. While cumulative arrivals remain close to last season, the slowdown in weekly flows continues to raise questions about sustainability into January.

Ecuador remains a key swing supplier. November exports totaled 76,523 tons, a record for the month and over 20% higher year-on-year, reinforcing expectations that Ecuadorian supply will partially offset West African structural constraints.

Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator (CCC) is preparing to purchase approximately 200,000 metric tons of beans from local exporters to prevent defaults on forward contracts. While the move provides short-term relief to exporters and farmers, it introduces the risk of renewed hedge pressure if those beans are later sold into the international market. This creates a potential overhang that could cap rallies in the near term.

Meanwhile, reports that Barry Callebaut is considering separating its cocoa division highlight growing financial stress across the processing sector as price volatility and margin compression persist.

Weather Conditions

Rainfall across Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana has diminished, signaling the early onset of Harmattan conditions. While earlier-than-average rains supported pod development, the shift toward drier, dust-laden winds raises risks for bean size and late-season quality. The balance has turned from yield support to weather-driven downside risk, particularly if Harmattan intensifies into January.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

New York cocoa extended its pullback on Thursday, with uniform declines across the front and deferred curve. The relatively even distribution of losses (-25 to -34) points to continued technical pressure and residual de-risking, rather than contract-specific liquidation. The lack of acceleration suggests selling momentum is moderating, but buyers remain cautious following last week’s sharp correction.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

London cocoa followed New York lower, posting broad but orderly declines across the curve. Losses were slightly more pronounced in deferred months, consistent with curve softening rather than a breakdown in nearby supply tension. Despite the pullback, price action remains controlled, reinforcing the view of consolidation after the post-expiry adjustment rather than a shift to bearish fundamentals.

Contango vs Backwardation

In New York (ICE US), the backwardation is clear across the active curve. The March-26 contract closed at 5,928, while May-26 closed lower at 5,955, July-26 at 5,970, and September-26 at 5,956, before prices step down more decisively into December-26 (5,920) and March-27 (5,888). The front-to-back structure signals that nearby demand continues to command a premium, even as outright prices softened. This configuration reflects continued sensitivity around deliverable supply, certification constraints, and lingering delivery risk despite recent liquidation pressure.

In London (ICE Europe), the backwardation is even more structurally pronounced. March-26 closed at 4,337, above May-26 (4,321), July-26 (4,308), September-26 (4,288), and December-26 (4,265), with a steady downward slope extending through 2027. The consistency of the downward curve confirms that the market is not pricing surplus availability in Europe, despite softer prices and declining certified stocks volatility. The absence of any contango pockets indicates that storage economics remain unattractive and that nearby physical demand and compliance requirements continue to anchor the front of the curve.

US–UK Spread (March Contracts)

$5,928−(4,337£×1.338$/£)=$125 (down from $132)

Volume & Open Interest

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

New York activity has cooled materially from the post-expiry surge (37,156 on Dec 15) into a more orderly tape (low-20k volumes on Dec 16–17, then 19,939 on Dec 18). The key signal is open interest: after dipping into Dec 16 (119,328), OI rebounded sharply by Dec 17 to 121,368 (+2,040), which is consistent with fresh positioning returning after the earlier liquidation phase rather than a market simply “going dead.” In other words: volume is fading because the forced move has passed, but OI rebuilding suggests the market is re-warehousing risk (new longs and/or new shorts establishing) at these lower levels—typically a setup for range trade with sharper reactions to the next supply/flow headline.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

London volumes have compressed more aggressively than New York (down to 11,986 on Dec 18), but open interest trends are the tell: OI climbed from 153,557 (Dec 16) to 155,010 (Dec 17) (+1,453). That combination—lower turnover but rising OI—usually points to position building occurring with less intraday churn, not capitulation. Practically, it implies the market is stabilizing into a “tighter, quieter” structure where marginal flows (hedges, roll activity, or fresh systematic positioning) can move price disproportionately, because liquidity is thinner.

Certified Stocks

• US certified stocks: 1,642,801 bags (down from 1,643,161)
• UK certified stocks: 566,563 bags (unchanged)

Intraday / Short-Term Outlook

Cocoa remains in a post-mania correction rather than a new bull market. On the weekly chart, price is still below key long-term moving averages, momentum remains weak, and the broader pattern of lower highs from the 2024 peak is intact, indicating stabilization rather than accumulation. The daily chart confirms that the recent rebound is corrective, not structural, with resistance clustered around the 6,000–6,200 area and downside risk reopening below the mid-5,700s.

On the 1-hour timeframe, the market is consolidating after a sharp rebound, forming a narrow decision zone rather than extending higher. Short-term weakness on the 5-minute chart reflects intraday selling pressure within this consolidation and does not alter the broader picture. Overall, upside remains capped, downside tests remain likely, and the market appears to be transitioning toward equilibrium rather than restarting a sustained uptrend.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.

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