Daily Cocoa Market Report (17 Feb 2026): Rising Stocks, Falling Grind: Pressure Mounts on Ivory Coast Cocoa System

Ivory Coast’s Coffee-Cocoa Council (CCC) has confirmed that the official cocoa farmgate price will remain fixed at 2,800 CFA francs per kilogram through March 31, 2026, despite mounting tensions in the domestic market. The regulator reiterated that the administered price remains in force nationwide and urged farmers to report any buyer failing to comply. However, market conditions on the ground tell a different story.

Reuters reports that farmers in several regions are currently being offered between 1,500 and 1,800 CFA francs per kilogram, significantly below the official rate. In some areas, transactions are reportedly occurring between 2,000 and 2,500 CFA/kg, highlighting a widening disconnect between regulatory pricing and actual liquidity conditions. Unsold cocoa bags are accumulating in warehouses, including in western towns such as Duékoué, where cooperatives are struggling to move beans to exporters following the decline in global cocoa prices.

Meanwhile, port arrivals since the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1 have reached 1.289 million metric tons as of February 15, down 4.4% year-on-year. Weekly arrivals for February 9–15 totaled 26,000 tons, slightly below the 27,000 tons recorded during the same week last season. While the deficit is moderate, it reflects ongoing frictions in internal purchasing and supply chain financing.

Processing data adds further evidence of strain. Ivory Coast’s January grind fell 2.1% year-on-year to 61,914 metric tons, according to exporters’ association GEPEX. Cumulative grinding since the start of the season stands at 227,472 tons, down 7.4% compared to last year. The slowdown suggests reduced throughput among major processors amid tighter supply flows and weaker demand dynamics.

According to Commerzbank, the growing pile of unsold beans could increase short-term supply availability, potentially exerting additional downward pressure on international prices if grinder demand remains soft. The bank also noted that sustained weakness may intensify pressure on Ivory Coast to reconsider its farmgate pricing policy.

In contrast to Ivory Coast’s firm stance, Ghana recently cut its producer price by 29% in response to severe liquidity constraints within its marketing system. Abidjan, however, remains committed to maintaining price stability for farmers through the end of the main crop, even as market forces increasingly challenge the sustainability of the administered pricing framework.

Taken together, declining arrivals, weaker grind volumes, rising warehouse stocks, discounted farmgate offers, and increasing exchange inventories point to mounting stress across the Ivorian cocoa supply chain. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether liquidity improves or whether policy adjustments become unavoidable.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

The cocoa market experienced a synchronized but uneven correction across London and New York, with New York leading the downside due to a delayed reaction following the U.S. holiday on 16 February. London cocoa declined between 2.4% and 3.2% across the first five contracts, reflecting steady and broad-based selling pressure. The weakness was slightly front-loaded, with Mar-26 down 3.17%, indicating pressure concentrated in the nearby structure but without evidence of panic liquidation or a curve dislocation. The move was relatively orderly and parallel along the curve.

New York cocoa, however, recorded a much sharper adjustment, falling between 4.2% and 4.9% across the same maturities when compared to 13 February. This confirms a classic catch-up selloff following London’s earlier weakness. The near-uniform percentage declines across Mar through Dec contracts indicate systematic long liquidation rather than a targeted repricing of a specific crop year. There was no steepening or inversion shift; instead, the curve moved lower in parallel, signaling macro-driven or CTA momentum activity rather than structural supply news.

Contango vs Backwardation

The cocoa forward curve on 17 February 2026 remains in clear contango in both London and New York across the first five contracts. Prices rise progressively from March through December, with New York showing a steeper carry structure than London. This indicates no immediate physical tightness or nearby supply squeeze. Instead, the market is pricing normal storage and financing costs, suggesting that the recent selloff was driven by speculative liquidation rather than a structural supply shock.

US–UK Spread

3,415 − (2,443 x 1.357$/£) =$100 ton (up from $58/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

Volume and open interest dynamics show a clear divergence between New York and London. In New York, the sharp decline into 17 February occurred on very strong volume (67,185 contracts) following the 16 February U.S. holiday, while open interest had already fallen significantly from 163,875 on 12 February to 156,595 on 13 February. This combination: high volume with declining open interest indicates long liquidation rather than aggressive new short positioning, suggesting a washout phase rather than structural bearish accumulation. In contrast, London cocoa shows rising open interest throughout the recent decline, climbing steadily to 201,267 by 16 February, even as prices weakened. That pattern implies new short positioning and/or commercial hedging entering the market. Structurally, New York appears to be undergoing liquidation-driven pressure, while London reflects more deliberate position building, making the London market comparatively heavier in tone.

COT Analysis

The latest COT data as of 10 February 2026 confirms that speculative positioning in cocoa is decisively bearish across both the U.S. and European markets. In the U.S. (futures and options combined), non-commercial traders hold a substantial net short position of approximately 52,820 contracts, with shorts significantly outweighing longs and increasing further during the latest reporting week. This indicates that funds are actively pressing the downside rather than covering. Commercial participants, by contrast, are net long by roughly 16,800 contracts, suggesting trade buying or hedge adjustments into price weakness. In Europe, managed money is also heavily net short (around 24,468 contracts), reinforcing the broader bearish speculative stance, while producers remain structurally net short as part of forward hedging activity. Overall, the COT structure supports the prevailing downtrend, but the size of speculative shorts implies that the market is becoming increasingly crowded, raising the potential for a sharp short-covering rally if price stabilization occurs.

Cocoa ICE Stocks

From 28 November 2025 to 17 February 2026, U.S. certified cocoa stocks increased from 1,711,039 bags to 2,036,385 bags, a net rise of 325,346 bags, or approximately 19%. This represents a substantial and persistent inventory build over roughly eleven weeks, shifting the market from a relatively balanced position into a clearly expanding stock environment.

Structurally, this persistent and accelerating inventory growth reduces the likelihood of nearby supply tightness and supports the existing contango in the forward curve. The absence of meaningful drawdown periods suggests that physical availability on exchange remains comfortable, limiting the probability of a short-term squeeze unless warehouse inflows slow materially.

What to Expect Tomorrow

US cocoa remains in a firmly established downtrend across all key timeframes. Price is trading below all major moving averages, and the hourly structure continues to print lower highs and lower lows. Momentum indicators remain negative overall. Although the daily RSI is approaching oversold territory, there is no confirmed reversal pattern or accumulation signal visible. OBV continues to trend downward, suggesting that buying pressure remains limited and that rallies are not being supported by strong participation.

For tomorrow, the most probable scenario is either continued downside pressure or a brief technical bounce followed by renewed selling. An early rebound attempt is possible due to short-term oversold conditions, but resistance is likely to emerge in the 3490–3520 zone where moving averages cluster. If price fails to reclaim and hold above that area, the market risks another test of the 3380–3400 support band. A clean break below that zone would open the path toward 3300–3250. At this stage, there is no technical evidence of a durable bottom, and the bias remains skewed to the downside unless a strong reclaim of resistance occurs with convincing volume.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.