Daily Cocoa Market Report (17 March 2026): Cocoa Market Signals Ample Supply Despite Short-Term Flow Weakness
- Ecuador Feb exports -10.98% y/y; season exports still +3.09%
- Ecuador 2025/26 export outlook strong at ~608–615k tons
- Ivory Coast mid-crop expected solid, with peak May–July
- Ivorian arrivals at 1.37m tons, down 3.1% y/y
- Global balance points to surplus in 2025/26 and 2026/27
The cocoa futures complex reversed sharply on 17 March, fully offsetting the prior session’s strength. Both ICE New York and London curves declined in a broadly parallel fashion, indicating systematic selling rather than contract-specific pressure. The magnitude of the move, roughly 1.1% to 2.0% in New York and 1.5% to 2.0% in London, confirms a decisive shift in short-term sentiment.
Ecuador reported cocoa exports of 40,520 metric tons in February, marking a decline of 4,998 tons or 10.98% compared to 45,518 tons shipped in the same month last year. Despite the weaker monthly performance, cumulative exports for the 2025/26 season (October to February) reached 285,706 tons, up 8,560 tons or 3.09% year-on-year.
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Forward-looking estimates remain robust. CRA projects Ecuador’s total exports for the 2025/26 season at 608,000 tons, while TRS provides a slightly higher estimate of 615,000 tons, indicating continued strong supply availability from the origin.
Additional supply-side signals from West Africa reinforce this outlook. In Ivory Coast, farmers expect a strong mid-crop despite below-average rainfall in several regions. Adequate soil moisture and healthy pod development are supporting expectations for a potentially extended harvest, likely concentrated between May and early July.
At the same time, official data shows arrivals remain slightly behind last year. Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 1.370 million tons as of March 15 since the start of the season, down 3.1% year-on-year. Weekly deliveries totaled around 20,000 tons, below the 14,000 tons recorded in the same week last year, indicating a modest slowdown in recent flows.
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Regional variability remains evident. While southern and eastern areas report favorable conditions and strong pod formation, parts of the west-central and central regions face weaker rainfall and concerns over lower yields, partly due to reduced farmer investment amid low farmgate prices.
On the global balance, TRS forecasts a cocoa surplus of 144,000 tons for 2025/26, widening to 284,000 tons in 2026/27. In contrast, CRA expects a larger surplus of 302,000 tons in 2025/26, followed by a narrower surplus of 212,000 tons in the subsequent season.
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Futures Performance
ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)
| Contract | 16-Mar-26 | 17-Mar-26 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 3,392 | 3,325 | -67 | -1.98% |
| Jul-26 | 3,458 | 3,396 | -62 | -1.79% |
| Sep-26 | 3,517 | 3,463 | -54 | -1.54% |
| Dec-26 | 3,581 | 3,540 | -41 | -1.14% |
| Mar-27 | 3,636 | 3,589 | -47 | -1.29% |
In New York, losses were slightly more pronounced in the front of the curve in percentage terms, suggesting that nearby contracts bore the brunt of liquidation or long unwinding. However, the relatively tight range of declines across maturities indicates that the overall curve structure remained stable, with no meaningful steepening or flattening.
ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
| Contract | 16-Mar-26 | 17-Mar-26 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 2,487 | 2,436 | -51 | -2.05% |
| Jul-26 | 2,530 | 2,479 | -51 | -2.02% |
| Sep-26 | 2,555 | 2,513 | -42 | -1.64% |
| Dec-26 | 2,590 | 2,550 | -40 | -1.54% |
| Mar-27 | — | 2,576 | — | — |
London exhibited a more uniform percentage decline across contracts, pointing to consistent selling pressure along the curve. The similarity in magnitude between May and July suggests limited calendar spread distortion, reinforcing the view that this was a broad-based repositioning rather than a targeted move in specific tenors.
EFP, EFS and Spread Activity
The activity in EFP, EFS, and spreads provides a clear signal on how the market was positioned during the selloff on 17 March.
In ICE New York (CC), EFP volumes were concentrated almost entirely in the front contract, with May-26 accounting for the bulk of the 339 lots. This indicates that the selling pressure in the nearby contract was at least partly driven by physical-related hedging flows rather than purely speculative activity. EFS activity was minimal, confirming limited linkage to equity or structured product flows. Spread volume was substantial at 23,769 lots, with the highest concentration again in the front months. This reflects active calendar spread trading and suggests that participants were rolling or adjusting positions rather than exiting outright.
In ICE London (C), EFP activity was more evenly distributed across the curve, with notable participation in Jul-26 and Sep-26. This points to broader commercial engagement along multiple maturities. EFS volumes were slightly higher than in New York but still modest overall, indicating that financial structuring played a secondary role. Spread volume totaled 14,786 lots, with strong activity in May-26 and Jul-26, consistent with roll-related flows and curve management.
Forward Curve
The forward curves in both ICE New York and London remain in a clear contango structure, with prices increasing progressively from nearby to deferred contracts. Despite the outright decline on 17 March, the shape of the curve was largely preserved, indicating that the move was parallel rather than structural.
In New York, the curve continues to slope upward from May-26 through Mar-27, with a steady premium of deferred months over the front. The compression in absolute prices did not materially alter the spacing between contracts, suggesting that the market did not significantly reprice longer-term supply expectations. The front of the curve weakened slightly more in percentage terms, but not enough to trigger meaningful steepening.
In London, the curve exhibits a similarly stable contango profile, with a smooth progression from May through Dec and into Mar-27. The uniform percentage declines across maturities reinforce that the forward structure remains intact. There is no indication of stress in nearby supply, as would be reflected by backwardation or sharp front-end tightening.
US–UK May Spread
$3,325 − (2436 x 1.324$/£) =$100 ton (down from $104)
Volume and Open Interest
Volume and open interest dynamics point to moderate participation with no aggressive position build.
| Date | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 35,467 | 189,585 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 39,901 | 189,541 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 29,758 | 188,663 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 40,221 | 190,007 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 35,980 | — |
In New York (CC), volume rebounded on 16 March (40k+) after the 13 March low, then eased to ~36k on 17 March. This suggests that the selloff occurred on average, not elevated, participation. Open interest had been trending slightly lower into mid-month, indicating gradual position reduction rather than fresh shorts entering.
| Date | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | 29,606 | 203,504 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 38,915 | 202,875 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 33,610 | 200,297 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 25,963 | 200,397 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 25,482 | — |
In London (C), volume shows a clearer downtrend from early March highs toward ~25k by 16–17 March. This confirms declining activity and reduced engagement. Open interest also drifted lower across the period, reinforcing a pattern of long liquidation or position trimming.
Exchange Trading Volume
| Date | ICE NEW YORK COCOA (US) | ICE LONDON COCOA (UK) |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 2026 | 2,273,550 | 712,500 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | 2,295,996 | 712,500 |
| Change | +22,446 | 0 |
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Cocoa IntelWhat to expect tomorrow
On the daily chart, price remains below all major moving averages, which are still trending downward. The recent bounce from ~3000 to ~3350 looks corrective rather than structural. RSI is recovering but still sub-50, and MACD remains negative. This keeps the higher timeframe bias bearish with limited upside conviction.
On the hourly chart, the recovery has stalled around the 3350–3400 area, which aligns with short-term resistance and moving averages. Momentum indicators (RSI flattening, stochastic rolling over) suggest loss of upward momentum. Price is beginning to drift sideways to slightly lower.
On the intraday (5-min), structure has shifted into range-to-down, with lower highs forming and momentum fading. There is no strong buying pressure visible into the close.
The market is consolidating after a bounce, with sellers still in control on higher timeframes. Unless price reclaims and holds above ~3420, rallies are likely to be sold.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
