Daily Cocoa Market Report (18 Feb 2026): Cocoa Under Pressure as U.S. Stocks Build, Ecuador Exports Drop and West Africa Policy Talks Continue

Yesterday cocoa continued its intraday decline during the first half of the session, printing fresh short-term lows near the 3200–3230 area. Selling pressure was steady rather than impulsive, with relatively small-bodied candles reflecting controlled downside momentum.

In the latter part of the session, price stabilized and formed a modest bounce, closing around 3249. The recovery was limited and did not break the sequence of lower highs. Overall, the day was characterized by early weakness followed by late-session consolidation, resulting in a slightly positive close off the lows but still within the broader downward structure.

According to Reuters and industry sources, Ivory Coast is weighing a reduction in its guaranteed farm-gate price to align with neighboring Ghana, which recently cut its own producer price by roughly 28.6% for the 2025/26 main crop season in response to collapsing futures and unsold stocks.

Ivory Coast Weighs Cocoa Farm Gate Price Cut in Coordination With Ghana

Source: Reuters | February 18, 2026 Ivory Coast is considering reducing its guaranteed farm gate cocoa price to align with neighboring Ghana, according to two government sources cited by Reuters. The move comes as the global cocoa market continues to face significant price volatility. According to the Reuters report, senior Ivorian

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Fresh export data from Ecuador presents a more nuanced supply picture. January cocoa bean and product exports totaled 34,519 tons, marking a sharp 20,101-ton decline (-36.8%) compared to last year and a 3,286-ton drop (-8.69%) versus January 2024. However, cumulative full-season exports have reached 245,186 tons, up 13,558 tons (+5.85%) from the same period last season. This suggests that while January shipments were weaker, overall seasonal flows remain stronger year-on-year.

Meanwhile, policy developments in West Africa could influence the market’s direction. The Ivory Coast–Ghana Cocoa Initiative (ICCIG) indicated that both countries have been coordinating closely amid the collapse in world prices driven by a lack of buyers willing to pay official farmgate prices. An inter-ministerial committee is reviewing the situation, and a decision could come soon. Market participants are watching whether new measures could attract buyers and potentially stabilize prices. However, internal questions remain unresolved, including whether farmers will be compensated at the original price for beans already delivered to market.

Attention is also turning to the March contract in New York, with first delivery day scheduled for Monday. The latest open interest reading shows 8,637 March (CCH6) contracts still open. This is a meaningful figure heading into delivery and could influence short-term price dynamics. If longs choose to liquidate rather than take delivery, additional front-month pressure may emerge into expiry. Conversely, if shorts elect to deliver against the contract, rising certified stocks make that process operationally easier, limiting squeeze risk. The elevated open interest into first notice day increases the probability of heightened volatility in the nearby spread and front-month price action.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

On 18-Feb-2026, cocoa futures extended the sharp selloff seen on 17-Feb, with both ICE US (CC) and ICE London (C) contracts closing significantly lower compared to the prior day’s settlement prices. In New York, March 2026 fell from 3,415 to 3,249 (-166 pts, -4.9%), while declines across May through December ranged roughly between -4.8% and -5.3%, with the back months slightly under heavier pressure. In London, the drop was even more aggressive: March 2026 declined from 2,443 to 2,280 (-163 pts, -6.7%), and the rest of the curve posted losses between approximately -6.5% and -7.0%. The selling was broad-based across all maturities in both markets, indicating systematic liquidation rather than isolated front-month weakness. London clearly underperformed New York, suggesting stronger pressure in the sterling-denominated market, and confirming that 18-Feb represented a continuation and acceleration of bearish momentum rather than stabilization.

Contango vs Backwardation

As of 18-Feb-2026, both ICE US and ICE London cocoa futures curves are in clear contango, with prices rising progressively from the front month to deferred contracts. In New York, March 2026 closed at 3,249 while December 2026 settled at 3,538 and December 2027 at 3,707, creating a pronounced upward slope of roughly 450+ points from front to far deferred. London shows the same structure, with March 2026 at 2,280 and December 2027 at 2,572, reflecting a steady forward premium. This configuration indicates the absence of immediate physical tightness or front-end supply stress; instead, the market is pricing higher uncertainty or risk premium into future crop years. In a true shortage environment, backwardation would dominate, with the front month trading at a premium. The current contango structure confirms that the recent selloff is occurring within a market that lacks near-term scarcity pressure and is not in a squeeze phase.

US–UK May Spread

3,332 − (2,322 x 1.350$/£) =$197 ton (up from $131/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

CE London Cocoa (C)

Between 3–18 February, ICE US cocoa (CC) shows a clear shift from stable participation to liquidation. Volume increased into the selloff, peaking at 67,185 on Feb 17 and 68,631 on Feb 18, well above the early-month average (roughly 45–55k). However, open interest declined from 163,875 on Feb 12 to 156,595 on Feb 13 and further to 154,642 by Feb 17. Rising volume combined with falling open interest confirms long liquidation rather than fresh short buildup, positions were being closed, not aggressively added. This supports the view that the recent drop was driven by position unwinding rather than new structural bearish conviction.

In ICE London cocoa (C), the picture is different. Volume increased meaningfully into the decline (48,779 on Feb 10, 60,325 on Feb 12, 43,973 on Feb 17, and 57,185 on Feb 18), but open interest continued rising through Feb 17, climbing steadily from 168,497 on Jan 27 to 206,996 on Feb 17. Rising volume alongside rising open interest indicates new positions were being initiated, likely fresh short exposure or systematic selling pressure rather than pure liquidation.

In summary: New York reflects liquidation-driven weakness, while London shows evidence of new positioning entering the market. That divergence is important, it suggests London is leading the structural pressure, while New York is experiencing position cleanup.

Cocoa ICE Stocks

The current divergence between falling prices and rising U.S. certified stocks, while U.K. inventories remain flat to slightly lower, is structurally significant. In New York, the simultaneous price decline and inventory build indicate that deliverable supply is increasing just as speculative length is being liquidated, reinforcing bearish pressure by removing any near-term scarcity premium. Rising stocks reduce squeeze risk and give shorts greater confidence, especially within a contango structure. However, London is not confirming this pattern; inventories there have not expanded in parallel. If this were a synchronized global oversupply event, both exchanges would show rising stocks. Instead, the supply normalization appears concentrated in the U.S. system, suggesting localized warehouse inflows, grading shifts, or inter-market arbitrage dynamics rather than broad physical abundance. This divergence matters because if London stocks begin to tighten while U.S. stocks continue building, it could create spread distortions between the two markets. For now, the weakness looks driven by U.S.-centric inventory expansion combined with financial liquidation rather than a fully global surplus narrative.

What to Expect Tomorrow

Across multiple timeframes, the structure remains decisively bearish heading into tomorrow. On the daily and weekly charts, price continues to trade well below the major moving averages with negative momentum and no confirmed reversal pattern, only signs of short-term deceleration. On the 1-hour chart, the sequence of lower highs and lower lows is intact, and the recent bounce toward the 3280–3300 area stalled beneath declining moving averages. Intraday momentum indicators on the 5-minute chart have rolled over again, suggesting the recovery attempt is losing strength. The most probable scenario for tomorrow is renewed downside pressure, potentially targeting the 3200–3180 zone, especially if early selling appears. A sustained move back above 3300–3330 with strong volume would be required to shift the short-term bias and open room toward 3360–3400, but at present the broader trend favors continuation to the downside unless proven otherwise.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.