Daily Cocoa Market Report (18 March 2026): Cocoa futures extended their decline

Cocoa futures extended their decline on 18 March when assessed on a close-to-close basis, confirming that underlying selling pressure persisted despite the prior session’s settlement-based stabilization. The move reflects continued liquidation across both major markets rather than a temporary pause in the downtrend.

News flow was limited, with no major cocoa-specific developments impacting the market. The only notable item came from the broader food sector, where Ferrero announced an agreement to acquire Brazilian protein snack company Bold Snacks.

The transaction reflects Ferrero’s strategy to expand into high-growth, “better-for-you” product categories, particularly protein-based snacks, as consumer preferences shift toward healthier options. The move is also aligned with industry trends driven by increased health awareness and the rising popularity of weight-management products.

While not directly linked to cocoa fundamentals, the deal highlights continued diversification among major confectionery players and evolving demand patterns within the broader food sector. Overall, the news had no immediate impact on cocoa price dynamics.

Cocoa Technicals and Data

Futures Performance

ICE New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York, losses were pronounced and broadly distributed along the curve. The front end led in absolute terms, with May-26 declining by 90 points, while deferred contracts posted losses in the 70–80 point range. The structure shifted lower in a largely parallel fashion, indicating that the move was driven by generalized long unwinding rather than a re-pricing of specific maturities. The limited differentiation across tenors suggests that positioning pressures remain systemic.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

In London, the market followed the same directional move but with more moderate declines. Losses ranged from the mid-30s in the nearby contracts to around 20 points in the back end, with the mid-curve showing the largest absolute declines. The more contained downside and slightly better resilience in deferred contracts point to a less aggressive liquidation profile compared to New York.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

Exchange for Physical (EFP) activity remained relatively subdued across both markets. In New York, EFP volumes were concentrated in the front contracts, with May-26 and Jul-26 accounting for the bulk of flows, while the rest of the curve saw little to no participation. London showed a more active EFP profile, with steady volumes across the front and mid-curve, suggesting continued physical-linked positioning and some degree of commercial engagement despite the broader price weakness.

Exchange for Swaps (EFS) activity was limited overall. London recorded modest flows, particularly in Jul-26, indicating some swap-related adjustments or hedging flows, while New York saw negligible EFS participation. The lack of significant EFS activity points to an absence of large-scale structured or OTC-linked repositioning during the session.

Spread trading remained a dominant feature of activity, particularly in London where spread volumes were consistently high across the curve. This indicates active calendar roll and intra-curve positioning, even as outright prices declined. In New York, spread activity was also notable in the nearby contracts, though less pronounced further out the curve. The combination of elevated spread volumes and stable curve structure reinforces the view that the market move was driven primarily by outright liquidation, with spreads largely preserved and no significant dislocations emerging between tenors.

Forward Curve

The forward curve shifted lower across both New York and London on 18 March, maintaining a largely parallel structure despite the outright decline. The absence of meaningful distortion along the curve indicates that the move was driven by broad-based liquidation rather than a repricing of specific maturities or changes in forward fundamentals.

US–UK May Spread

$3,235 − (2400 x 1.324$/£) =$57 ton (down from $100)

Volume and Open Interest

Trading activity softened on 18 March across both cocoa markets, consistent with the ongoing liquidation phase.

In New York, total volume declined to 29,720 contracts, down from 35,980 on 17 March, indicating reduced participation following the prior session’s heavy selling. Open interest data was not reported for the day, but the combination of lower volume and continued price declines suggests that the move was driven more by position reduction than fresh short accumulation.

In London, volume also decreased, falling to 22,945 contracts from 25,482 previously. Open interest continued its downward trend, dropping to 199,767, confirming that positions are being unwound rather than rebuilt. The steady decline in open interest over recent sessions reinforces the view of systematic long liquidation.

Exchange Trading Volume

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

Short-term price action continues to point to downside pressure, although the market is becoming technically stretched and vulnerable to a brief corrective bounce. Intraday structure on both the 5-minute and 1-hour charts shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with momentum indicators such as RSI and stochastic approaching oversold territory. MACD remains negative, confirming that bearish momentum is still dominant.

On the hourly timeframe, cocoa is trading below all key moving averages, which are aligned in a bearish configuration. The recent break below the 3300–3320 support zone reinforces the continuation of the downtrend, with the next support area emerging around 3200–3220. The lack of stabilization signals suggests that selling pressure has not yet fully exhausted.

From a broader perspective, the daily chart maintains a firmly bearish structure. The recent move appears to be a continuation following a weak corrective phase, rather than the start of a reversal. While indicators show some recovery from oversold conditions, there is no clear evidence of a trend shift.

For the next session, the base case remains a continuation lower, potentially testing the 3200 area. However, given the oversold setup, an initial bounce or consolidation phase is likely before sellers reassert control. A recovery back above 3300–3320 would be required to trigger a short-term squeeze toward 3350–3380, but this scenario currently appears less probable.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.