Daily Cocoa Market Report (2 April 2026): Cocoa Consolidates as Market Awaits Grindings Data

Cocoa futures traded in a volatile but ultimately indecisive session. Prices initially extended higher, testing the 3350 area, before encountering resistance and reversing sharply lower toward 3200. The market later stabilized and partially recovered, settling back into the 3240–3250 range. The price action reflects continued uncertainty, with intraday strength fading quickly and no sustained directional follow-through.

News flow remains notably light, with no fresh fundamental catalysts driving the move. Market focus has shifted almost entirely toward the upcoming grindings data for North America and Europe, scheduled for release on 16 April, which is expected to provide the next meaningful demand signal.

In the interim, sentiment is being shaped by early indicators of chocolate consumption. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, initial estimates suggest that Easter chocolate sales are tracking around 5% lower year-on-year. Given that Easter represents a key seasonal demand peak, this points to softening end-consumer demand, likely reflecting continued pressure from high cocoa prices.

Futures Performance

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

The US cocoa curve shows a clear front-loaded selloff, with the largest losses concentrated in May and July. The decline moderates progressively along the curve, producing a bearish flattening profile.

This is structurally important. The front-end premium, previously driven by tight nearby supply and short covering, is being partially unwound. The back end remains relatively stable, indicating that long-term supply concerns are still embedded in pricing.

The magnitude of the reversal, roughly minus 3 percent to minus 3.5 percent, fully offsets the prior day’s rally and signals aggressive long liquidation rather than incremental selling. The pattern of weaker front versus more resilient deferred contracts is typical of a positioning washout, not a fundamental shift.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

The London market shows a more muted and evenly distributed decline compared to NY. Losses range between minus 0.4 percent and minus 1.2 percent, with no strong front-end concentration.

This indicates a parallel downward shift rather than a structural reshaping of the curve. Unlike NY, there is no pronounced front-end stress release, suggesting that positioning in London was less stretched going into the move.

The relatively stronger performance of May, which shows the smallest decline, implies that nearby tightness in London remains better supported or at least less aggressively unwound.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

EFP activity is significantly higher in London than in NY. London prints 403 lots versus only 63 in NY, indicating stronger physical-to-futures linkage. This suggests that commercial hedging and physical market engagement are more active in the London contract, which is consistent with its traditional role as the primary physical cocoa pricing venue.

EFS activity remains minimal in both markets, though slightly higher in London. The low EFS volumes imply limited futures-to-swaps reallocation, meaning the move is not being driven by structured OTC hedging flows or swap-related repositioning.

Spread volume is substantial in both markets, but with different implications. NY records the highest spread activity overall, especially in Jul-26. This aligns with roll activity and intra-curve repositioning, consistent with the earlier observation of front-end liquidation and migration of risk further along the curve.

In London, spread activity is also elevated but more evenly distributed. Combined with higher EFP volume, this points to balanced commercial activity rather than speculative repositioning.

US–UK May Spread

$3,250 − (2464 x 1.322$/£) =$-7ton (down from $90)

Volume and Open Interest

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

Into 31-Mar, volume spikes to 53k, marking a clear increase in participation alongside a continued rise in open interest. This indicates new length entering the market, consistent with the price rally observed into 01-Apr.

On 01-Apr, volume remains elevated at 45k while open interest increases further to 204,474. This confirms that the rally was position-building rather than short covering alone, with fresh longs likely driving the move.

On 02-Apr, volume declines moderately to 40k, but more importantly, open interest ticks slightly lower. This is a critical signal. The price decline on 02-Apr, combined with falling open interest, confirms long liquidation rather than new short initiation.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

London shows a more stable participation profile. Volume is consistent in the 27k to 28k range across all three sessions, indicating steady engagement without speculative spikes.

Open interest continues to rise from 213,927 to 214,526 into 01-Apr, similar to NY, confirming position build during the rally phase. However, unlike NY, there is no clear evidence of meaningful open interest reduction on 02-Apr in the provided data.

This suggests that the London decline is not driven by liquidation, but rather by price adjustment within existing positions. Market participants appear to be holding exposure rather than exiting aggressively.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

COT Analysis

COT US Cocoa

The COT report as of 31 March 2026 highlights a market increasingly driven by speculative short positioning, while commercial participants remain supportive on the long side.

Non-commercial traders expanded their bearish exposure over the week, adding 1,992 short contracts versus only 207 new longs. This pushed their net short position further out, confirming that funds were actively selling into the late-March rally rather than covering. At the same time, open interest increased by 7,833 contracts, indicating that this was fresh positioning rather than a reshuffling of existing exposure.

Commercials also increased activity on both sides, adding 4,369 longs and 4,641 shorts. The slightly larger increase in shorts led to a marginal reduction in their net long position, but overall positioning remains supportive. This reflects ongoing hedging flows rather than a shift in directional conviction.

At the total market level, shorts increased more than longs, resulting in a net expansion of short exposure. This aligns closely with the subsequent price action, where the selloff on 2 April can be interpreted as validation of the newly established fund shorts, reducing immediate short squeeze risk.

The market is now characterized by a clear divergence. Funds are positioned for downside and have recently increased that exposure, while commercials continue to provide a structural long base. This combination typically leads to heightened volatility, with price direction sensitive to whether speculative momentum persists or commercial support begins to dominate.

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

What to expect tomorrow

For Monday, the most likely base case is a two-sided session with a slight downside bias unless 3285 to 3305 is reclaimed early. The market looks like it is trying to form a short-term trading range after the liquidation break, but it has not yet rebuilt enough momentum to suggest a clean continuation higher.

If the market opens and holds above 3230 to 3240, there is room for a rebound toward 3270, and if that is cleared, then 3290 to 3305 becomes the decisive test. A move through 3305 with volume would be the first real sign that the liquidation phase has ended and that price may retest 3330 to 3360.

If price fails to hold 3230 and especially if it breaks 3200, the rebound attempt is likely exhausted. In that case, the market would probably rotate back into a weaker intraday structure and target 3175 to 3185 next. That would confirm that the recent bounce was only a pause inside a still-fragile market.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.