Daily Cocoa Market Report (20 April 2026): Cocoa Stabilizes After Sharp Selloff as Modest Rebound Meets Bearish Supply Outlook

• New York nearby contracts rose roughly +1.5% to +2.0%, while London gained +1.5% to +2.7%
• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.482 million metric tons by April 19, broadly flat year-on-year (+0.1%), signaling steady overall supply flow.
• The Cocoa Association (CRA) maintained a surplus outlook, projecting 378,000 MT excess supply for 2025/26 and 265,000 MT for 2026/27.
• West Africa weather remains uneven, with below-average rainfall in parts of Ivory Coast raising concerns over mid-crop quality.

Cocoa futures stabilized on 20 April after the sharp, liquidation-driven selloff seen late last week, with prices posting a modest rebound across both New York and London markets. In New York, nearby contracts rose by roughly +1.5% to +2.0% compared to 17 April closes, while London cocoa gained around +1.5% to +2.7% across the front months. Despite the positive close, the recovery retraced only a limited portion of the steep losses of −5% to −6% recorded on 17 April.

Fundamentally, the backdrop remains mixed but tilted bearish. Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast reached 1.482 million metric tons by April 19, broadly in line with last season (+0.1% y/y), indicating steady supply flow into the market. However, short-term port deliveries slowed, with around 20,000 tons shipped between April 13–19, down from 23,000 tons a year earlier, suggesting some near-term logistical or harvest variability.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Port Arrivals – Weekly Deliveries Tracker

Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals represent the volume of cocoa beans delivered to the country’s main export ports during the marketing season. As the world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast typically accounts for around 40–45% of global cocoa supply, making port arrivals one of the most closely

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The latest CRA outlook maintains a clearly surplus-driven narrative, projecting global surpluses of 378,000 MT for 2025/26 and 265,000 MT for 2026/27. The agency also flagged weakening demand dynamics, noting that substitution effects are emerging in cocoa product consumption. This reinforces a bearish longer-term price framework, with terminal price expectations seen in the £1,850–£2,000 range.

Weather conditions across West Africa remain a key variable. Recent rainfall has been below average in several regions of Ivory Coast, with farmers indicating that additional moisture is needed to support mid-crop development and bean quality. While localized showers are expected in the near term, particularly with heavier rainfall forecast in Cameroon the current pattern is uneven. This introduces some upside risk to supply expectations, although not yet sufficient to offset the broader surplus outlook.

Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

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Ivory Coast farmers hope for more rain to support cocoa crop

Farmers in Ivory Coast said last week’s rainfall was below average across most cocoa-growing areas, raising concerns that additional moisture is needed to help improve the quality of beans in the March-to-August mid-crop. Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is currently in its rainy season, which typically

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On the demand side, processing activity remains weak, with first-quarter grindings at their lowest level for a Q1 since 2009. While there is tentative discussion of a recovery in the second half of the year, current consumption trends remain subdued. Additional uncertainty stems from ongoing El Niño discussions, which could pose risks to crops in regions such as Ecuador and Indonesia, although the direct correlation to cocoa output remains inconclusive at this stage.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York cocoa, all listed contracts rebounded, with gains ranging from roughly 49 to 67 points. The recovery is clearly front-end led, as May-26 and Jul-26 posted the largest absolute increases, while deferred contracts such as Mar-27 lagged. This pattern indicates that the aggressive liquidation seen on 17-Apr was not sustained into the next session, and instead gave way to a technical rebound. However, the magnitude of the recovery remains smaller than the prior losses, suggesting that the broader bearish pressure has not been fully reversed.

London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa exhibits a similar directional pattern but with a more controlled amplitude. All contracts posted gains between approximately 37 and 66 points when comparing 17-Apr to 20-Apr CLOSE#, again with the front end leading the move. However, the recovery in London is slightly more balanced across the curve, with less pronounced front-to-back divergence than in New York. This suggests relatively lower volatility and a more stable reaction function, likely reflecting differences in participant composition and liquidity structure between the two markets.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

EFP activity on 20-Apr is concentrated in the front end, particularly in New York, where most of the 341 lots are in May-26 and Jul-26. This indicates active futures-versus-physical adjustments following the prior session’s selloff, with commercials likely recalibrating near-term hedge exposure. London shows higher total EFP (874 lots) but with a more even distribution across the curve, suggesting steadier physical hedging rather than reactive front-end adjustment.

EFS flow is heavily skewed toward New York, totaling 3,896 lots, with a pronounced concentration in Mar-27. This points to significant options-related repositioning, likely delta hedging or restructuring of longer-dated exposures. In contrast, London EFS activity is limited (187 lots), reinforcing the view that options-linked flows are less dominant in that market.

Spread activity is elevated in both markets but more pronounced in New York (23,637 lots vs. 15,506 in London). The concentration in mid-curve contracts such as Jul-26 and Sep-26 reflects active roll and curve rebalancing after the sharp repricing. Overall, the flow profile confirms a mix of front-end physical adjustment, deferred options hedging, and curve restructuring, with New York showing higher intensity and London remaining more contained.

US–UK July Spread

$3,367 − (£2505 x 1.353$/£) =$-22ton (down from $5)

Volume and Open Interest

On 20-Apr, both markets show a clear drop in activity following the 17-Apr liquidation event, but the underlying signals differ in intensity.

In New York cocoa, volume declines to 40,348 from 55,615 on 17-Apr, indicating reduced participation during the rebound. This confirms that the price recovery was not driven by strong new buying but rather by short covering or a temporary absence of selling pressure. Given the prior decline in open interest into 17-Apr, the lower volume on 20-Apr reinforces a deleveraging environment, where positions have already been reduced and the market lacks fresh conviction.

In London cocoa, volume falls more sharply to 23,961 from 33,802 on 17-Apr, pointing to an even more subdued session. However, unlike New York, the preceding trend in open interest was upward into 17-Apr. This suggests that while activity slowed on 20-Apr, the market structure remains more intact, with positions still held rather than aggressively unwound.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

For tomorrow, the setup favors a range-to-lower session with downside bias, rather than a clean continuation or reversal.

Price is currently sitting just below short-term resistance (~3390–3400), where multiple moving averages converge. The inability to reclaim this zone suggests that any early strength is likely to be sold into, especially given the weak momentum profile and lack of volume confirmation. On the downside, the market has been compressing toward support around 3350–3360, which becomes the key level to watch.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.