Daily Cocoa Market Report (23 Dec 2025): Cocoa Rebounds on Technical Support Amid Lower Participation
The March cocoa contract in New York stabilized, closing at 5,958, up 78 from the prior settlement of 5,880, but holiday liquidity kept participation low and the rebound technical rather than trend-driven. Certified stocks and softer West African arrivals continue to provide a structural floor, leaving prices highly headline- and liquidity-sensitive into year-end. For tomorrow, the market is likely to retest 6,000, where failure to attract volume or expand open interest increases the odds of rejection and rotation back toward 5,850–5,800.
Rainfall strength through October–November has supported bean quality and pod survival for the upcoming main crop. At the same time, recent heavy rainfalls in West Africa are likely to slow port arrivals by disrupting drying, road transport, and loading schedules, which may reduce near-term export flow.
Meanwhile, sterling strength against the dollar continues to pressure London prices, amplifying downside sensitivity on any failed rally attempts.
Today’s trading schedule also reflects active but shortened participation, with the UK market operating until 12:23 GMT time and the US cocoa futures session extending until 18:05 GMT time.
Futures Performance
New York Cocoa (ICE US)
| Contract | 22-Dec | 23-Dec | Change (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-26 | 5,880 | 5,958 | +78 |
| May-26 | 5,911 | 5,988 | +77 |
| Jul-26 | 5,936 | 6,014 | +78 |
| Sep-26 | 5,915 | 5,998 | +83 |
New York cocoa posted a broad rally on Tuesday, with front and deferred contracts adding roughly $90–$110. The strength appeared technical, supported by oversold conditions from last week’s corrective wave and a modest return of short-covering rather than fundamental catalysts. The move also reflects positioning ahead of the thin year-end trade.
London Cocoa (ICE Europe)
| Contract | 22-Dec | 23-Dec | Change (GBP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-26 | 4,285 | 4,303 | +18 |
| May-26 | 4,261 | 4,284 | +23 |
| Jul-26 | 4,255 | 4,274 | +19 |
| Sep-26 | 4,234 | 4,256 | +22 |
London cocoa also participated in Tuesday’s recovery, posting modest gains across the curve. The breadth of the advance, even amid light volume, signals technical support and positioning recalibration more than a shift in physical fundamentals.
Contango vs Backwardation
The front of both curves remains in contango, meaning nearby contracts are priced lower than deferred months, reflecting tight certified stocks but still sufficient prompt supply to avoid backwardation. The US curve shows stronger relative carry pressure, with uniform gains of +78 to +83 USD into deferred months, indicating technical short-covering and positioning flows rebuilding risk premium rather than physical scarcity inversion. London also held contango, but with milder carry expansion (+18 to +23 GBP), consistent with hedging flow absorption and weaker outright speculative sponsorship compared to New York. There is no sign of sustained backwardation in the past two trading days, confirming the market is repricing future delivery risk, not bidding for immediate physical shortage.
US–UK Spread
$5,943−(4,300£×1.351$/£)=$134 (up from $112)
Volume & Open Interest
New York Cocoa (ICE US)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 19,915 | Not yet reported |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 21,471 | 123,167 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 17,154 | 121,800 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 19,939 | 121,844 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 21,391 | 121,368 |
Turnover remained well below mid-December peaks, reflecting holiday thinness rather than lack of interest. Open interest through the last reported session shows a stabilization and modest uptick from the mid-week trough, which suggests that forced liquidation pressure has eased and that traders are re-establishing or rolling positions ahead of year-end flows.
London Cocoa (ICE Europe)
| Date | Total Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 12,341 | Not yet reported |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 12,076 | 158,967 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 16,270 | 158,569 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 11,986 | 155,023 |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 15,539 | 155,010 |
London volumes ticked slightly higher versus Monday’s low but remain muted compared with the early-December rally phase. Open interest moved modestly higher, indicating selective hedging and position adjustments rather than speculative capitulation.
Certified Stocks
- US stocks: 1,626,861 bags (down from 1,636,159)
- UK stocks: 565,781 bags (unchanged)
U.S. certified stocks eased again, reinforcing backwardation and near-term deliverable scarcity. UK stocks were stable on the day but remain near multi-year lows, supporting the structural supply narrative even as short-term price action consolidates.
Intraday / Short-Term Outlook
Cocoa remains range-bound, with 6000 acting as the key ceiling. Momentum is neutral (RSI ~50, compressed MACD) and the recent push higher lacked volume confirmation, increasing the odds that the move was a liquidity probe rather than real buying. For tomorrow, expect another test of 6000; if price rejects it again, especially via 5m candle closes back under the fast MAs with no volume expansion, the market is likely to rotate lower toward 5850, and potentially 5750–5800 as the main magnet zone. Only treat the market as bullish if 6000 flips into support with clear volume increase. Until then, fade strength on confirmed rejection, avoid mid-range trades, and watch for downside rotation, not breakout.
If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.
