Daily Cocoa Market Report (23 Feb 2026): Market Weighs Ivorian Price Decision and Mid-Crop Prospects

The Ivorian government confirmed it will announce the fixed mid-crop farmgate price by the end of February, earlier than the traditional late-March or early-April timing. Market speculation has centered on a potential reduction of around 35 percent, aligning with Ghana’s recent farmer price cut of roughly one third. Such a move would materially affect producer incentives, forward selling patterns, and export competitiveness during the April to September mid-crop period.

Operational strain within the domestic stock management system remains evident. Transcao, despite estimated storage capacity of 160,000 tonnes and processing capacity near 50,000 tonnes, is reportedly struggling to absorb available stocks officially estimated at 123,000 tonnes. More than a month after the approval of a 280 billion CFA franc farmer support package, the buyback operation is described as uneven, with slow warehouse deliveries, alleged informal access payments, and limited transparency regarding actual stock drawdowns. Estimates suggest that over 100,000 tonnes may still be sitting in storage facilities. Meanwhile, cocoa is reportedly being purchased in some areas at around 1,800 CFA francs per kilogram, well below the official farmgate price of 2,800 CFA francs, highlighting the disconnect between fixed pricing policy and prevailing market conditions.

Adding to the supply narrative, official data show that Ivory Coast 2025/26 cocoa arrivals reached 1.307 million tonnes as of February 22, down 4.5 percent from the same period last season. Weekly arrivals totaled 18,000 tonnes, compared with 19,000 tonnes in the equivalent week a year earlier. While the season-to-date decline signals some moderation in flows, the pace does not yet indicate acute supply disruption, particularly given rising exchange-visible stocks in consuming regions.

Fresh farmer reports indicate that Ivory Coast is set to produce a healthy mid-crop if March rainfall normalizes. While no rains fell in many cocoa-growing regions last week, soil moisture remains adequate and pod development is reportedly strong across multiple stages. Farmers noted that regular rains in March would significantly support bean size and quality, with some suggesting the mid-crop could exceed last season’s output if weather conditions cooperate. However, isolated dry areas in western and central regions underscore that rainfall over the coming weeks will be critical.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

ICE London Cocoa (C)

The 23-Feb-2026 session partially reversed the prior day’s rebound, with both markets showing renewed pressure, more pronounced in London than in New York. In ICE US cocoa, losses were concentrated in the front months Mar to May, while deferred contracts held relatively firm and Dec-26 even posted a slight gain, indicating front-end weakness without aggressive long-dated liquidation. This suggests controlled selling rather than panic, and a curve structure that is soft nearby but not pricing escalating long-term supply stress. In contrast, ICE London cocoa declined sharply across the entire curve, with front-month losses approaching 4 percent, reflecting broader and more directional selling pressure, likely driven by macro flows or currency effects. Overall, the price action confirms that the recent bounce was corrective rather than the start of a sustained reversal. The broader technical structure remains fragile, with no evidence yet of strong front-end leadership or momentum consistent with a durable bottom.

Contango vs Backwardation

The 23-Feb futures session confirms that the market remains technically fragile and structurally soft, particularly in London. In ICE US cocoa, the front months declined while deferred contracts showed relative stability, producing a mild flattening of the curve. The fact that Dec-26 held firm while Mar-26 weakened suggests the market is not pricing an escalation of long-term supply risk. Instead, pressure is concentrated in the nearby structure, indicating fading short-covering rather than fresh bullish conviction. Volume concentration in May reinforces that liquidity remains centered in the first deferred contract, typical during consolidation phases.

In ICE London cocoa, the move was more decisive and uniformly bearish across the curve. Losses of 2 to 4 percent from Mar through Dec indicate broader liquidation rather than selective front-end adjustment. There is no sign of deferred sponsorship, which suggests macro-driven selling or currency-adjusted weakness rather than tightening fundamentals.

US–UK May Spread

$3,145 − (2,212 x 1.349$/£) =$162 ton (up from $130/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

Volume and open interest behavior into 23-Feb-2026 indicate a volatility digestion phase rather than trend acceleration. In ICE US cocoa, volume expanded significantly between Feb 17 and Feb 19, peaking above 71,000 contracts during heightened price movement, while open interest initially declined and then rebuilt into Feb 20, suggesting an initial liquidation phase followed by fresh positioning rather than pure short covering. However, on Feb 23, volume contracted sharply to 37,191 while prices weakened, indicating reduced participation and a lack of aggressive new short building. This type of low-volume decline typically reflects low-conviction selling, meaning the downside move lacks momentum confirmation and is less likely to accelerate immediately without a renewed expansion in participation. Such conditions often precede consolidation or range trading, and weak-volume pullbacks can become vulnerable to short-term reflex bounces if buying interest re-emerges.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

In ICE London cocoa, open interest rose steadily from 183,412 on Feb 9 to above 214,000 by Feb 19, signaling consistent new risk being added during the volatility window rather than pure liquidation. The drop in volume on Feb 23 similarly suggests fading momentum rather than decisive expansion of bearish pressure. Overall, both markets show evidence of repositioning and structural adjustment, but not capitulation or strong conviction-driven trend continuation. Unless downside moves begin to occur alongside expanding volume and rising open interest, the current setup favors stabilization and consolidation rather than immediate trend acceleration.

Cocoa ICE Stocks

Certified stock data into 23-Feb-2026 shows a clear easing in prompt supply tightness, particularly in the US. ICE US certified stocks rose sharply from 2,087,755 on 19-Feb to 2,130,225 by 23-Feb, a build of more than 42,000 bags in just two sessions, confirming steady warehouse inflows and reducing immediate scarcity pressure. This ongoing inventory accumulation structurally caps front-month upside and helps explain why nearby futures have struggled to lead rallies. In contrast, UK ICE stocks slipped modestly from 558,281 to 556,250 over the same period, a minor draw that does not signal tightening conditions. Overall, the inventory trend supports stabilization rather than renewed bullish momentum, as rising certified stocks typically limit backwardation expansion and weaken the fundamental case for aggressive front-end price strength.

Stock-to-Grind ratio

As of 23-Feb-2026, the US stock-to-grind ratio stands at 31.85%, which translates to approximately 116 days of grind coverage based solely on ICE deliverable stocks. This is a substantial cushion and indicates that exchange-visible supply in the US is not in immediate stress. Such coverage materially reduces the probability of a front-end squeeze and helps explain why nearby futures are not sustaining aggressive backwardation.

In contrast, the UK stock-to-grind ratio is 2.69%, equivalent to roughly 9.8 days of grind coverage. This is structurally tight when viewed purely from an exchange perspective. However, because ICE deliverable stocks represent only a portion of total physical availability, this low ratio does not automatically imply acute physical shortage unless accompanied by evidence of broader commercial inventory stress.

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

What to Expect Tomorrow

n the daily timeframe, the trend remains decisively bearish, with price trading below the 20, 90, 150, and 200-day moving averages, RSI still weak, MACD deeply negative, and OBV trending lower, indicating no confirmed higher-timeframe reversal. However, on the 1-hour and intraday charts, downside momentum has slowed and price is consolidating around the 3140–3150 pivot zone, with short-term momentum indicators stabilizing. This setup suggests a higher probability of range-bound trade or a modest corrective bounce toward 3180–3200 rather than immediate trend acceleration lower. A renewed bearish leg would require clear volume expansion and acceptance below 3140, which could open 3090–3050, and potentially 3000. Without that participation increase, the most probable near-term outcome is consolidation within the broader downtrend rather than an immediate breakdown.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.