Daily Cocoa Market Report (24 Dec 2025): Divergent price action in a shortened holiday trading session

On 24 December, cocoa futures markets demonstrated technically driven and venue-divergent price action in a shortened holiday trading session. ICE US cocoa continued its prior-day rebound with modest, curve-wide gains across the 2026–27 strip, reflecting residual short covering under thin liquidity. ICE Europe cocoa, which closed earlier in GMT, retraced in the front 2026 tenors due to profit-taking and year-end book balancing, while deferred 2027 contracts remained stable.

A key constructive driver for cocoa markets remains the expected contraction in Nigerian cocoa output, a notable signal given Nigeria’s position as the fifth-largest global producer. The national Cocoa Association anticipates 2025/26 production will decline 11 percent year-on-year, reaching approximately 305,000 metric tons, compared with an estimated 344,000 metric tons in the prior 2024/25 season. Export data has offered a steadier counterpoint: reported September shipments totaled 14,511 metric tons, holding broadly flat versus the same period last year, indicating that near-term export capacity has not yet reflected the projected production shortfall. This combination of softer forward supply expectations and stable recent export volumes continues to reinforce a cautiously supportive backdrop for prices, particularly in deferred market structure where term premiums remain intact.

Ivory Coast’s cocoa processing volumes declined 6.7% year-on-year in November, reaching 56,696 metric tons of beans, according to exporter-reported data shared with Reuters via the GEPEX industry group on Friday.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Grind Falls 6.7% YoY in November — Exporters

Ivory Coast’s cocoa processing volumes declined 6.7% year-on-year in November, reaching 56,696 metric tons of beans, according to exporter-reported data shared with Reuters via the GEPEX industry group on Friday. Reuters reported: “The total grind of beans rose from the 2025/25 season in October to 100,

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Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) says that despite cocoa reaching record highs over the past 18 months, Ghanaian farmers and the board itself have not captured the expected financial benefits from that rally, and the market has since corrected sharply from around US$12,000 to roughly US$5,800 per tonne, creating losses for the sector. COCOBOD warned that if prices remain weak, this could translate into a lower declared Free On Board (FOB) price for the next crop year, which matters because the FOB price directly affects farmer incomes, export revenue for Ghana, and the pricing foundation used in contracts and hedging. A potential reduction in the FOB price would therefore be material for market sentiment, Ghana’s cocoa export earnings, and future pricing expectations in the cocoa complex.

Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

The rally continued on 24-Dec, with the entire front curve closing higher. The gains are modest but consistent, with the largest lift in Sep-26, implying the move was broad-based rather than isolated to the front month.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

UK reversed lower on 24-Dec, with a clean, curve-wide drop of roughly -1.3% to -1.6%, consistent with profit-taking / retracement after the prior day’s strength.

On 24 December, ICE US cocoa extended the corrective rally from 23-Dec as modest but consistent gains across the first four contracts reflected continued short-covering and intraday technical momentum in a thin, holiday-reduced but comparatively longer session that typically trades into the U.S. afternoon in GMT terms, allowing late buying flows to influence settlement. By contrast, ICE Europe (UK) cocoa retraced lower in a uniform curve-wide pullback driven by profit-taking and book-squaring after 23-Dec’s oversold rebound, with the Christmas Eve schedule further shortening London trading hours and forcing an earlier GMT close (mid-afternoon) that limited the window for momentum buyers to re-enter while favoring long liquidation into low liquidity. The divergence therefore stemmed primarily from differing session lengths and close timing under year-end, holiday-adjacent conditions, where small order imbalances produce amplified ticks, rather than any fresh fundamental shift in global cocoa supply-demand.

Contango/Backwardation

As of 24 December, both ICE US (New York) and ICE Europe (London/UK) cocoa futures exhibited a clear contango structure across all listed contracts. In New York, prices rise steadily from the first 2026 tenors through the 2027 strip, forming an upward-sloping term curve in which deferred months trade at a premium to nearby contracts, consistent with a market driven by carry economics—where implied storage, financing, and inventory availability exceed immediate physical tightness. London cocoa mirrored the same contango profile at the back of the curve, despite front-segment softness on Christmas Eve. The UK session’s earlier close and reduced hours encouraged position trimming in 2026 tenors, but deferred 2027 contracts remained stably priced above the nearby stack, preserving the positive slope. Crucially, no sustained inversion or downward curve gradient emerged in either market to signal backwardation, confirming that the brief divergence on 24 December was not indicative of acute prompt-supply stress, but rather a reflection of holiday-adjacent liquidity, year-end book management, and structurally intact carry premiums across the full contract spectrum.

US–UK Spread

$5,982−(4,230£×1.350$/£)=$272 (up from $134)

Volume & Open Interest

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

Turnover was subdued as expected on Christmas Eve, with volume dropping sharply from the already light late-December levels. Open interest through the most recent session remains elevated relative to pre-expiry, demonstrating that participants are still carrying risk into the thin holiday window rather than unwinding fully.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

London cocoa saw extremely low turnover on Tuesday, reflecting the closeness to holiday closures. However, open interest continues to reflect structural hedge flows and positioning rather than outright liquidation. This suggests participants are maintaining exposure and rebalancing selectively.

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Intraday / Short-Term Outlook

Short-term cocoa momentum is neutral-to-slightly bullish, with daily RSI in the mid-50s and 1-hour RSI holding above 50 and rising, indicating buyers retain early intraday energy without overbought conditions. Price is opening into a critical moving-average cluster where the 10- and 20-period MAs converge on daily and 1H charts, while the 150- and 200-period MAs overhead near the 6000–6100 zone act as firm near-term resistance. On-balance indicators are flat-to-mildly rising, and recent volume expanding on green candles suggests early accumulation rather than distribution, increasing the odds of an initial push toward resistance rather than a sharp selloff. The market’s directional decision will likely form in the first hour, hinging on whether price can break and hold above 6000–6040 with supporting volume; acceptance above that zone opens room for continuation higher, whereas failure or fast rejection back under 5950–5900 would point to retracement or range rejection toward 5900, with 5800–5850 serving as the first major support floor. A neutral, choppy start confined between 5900–6000 is also plausible if volume fails to expand. The probability-weighted path favors a mild bullish probe at the open, an early test of 6000+, and either continuation if accepted or a pullback if rejected, producing an expected opening-day range of roughly 5880 to 6050, with the upper half favored only if early volume validates buyer control.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.