Daily Cocoa Market Report (25 Feb 2026): Origin Selling, Policy Shifts and Financing Stress

Continued sales of the current crop, combined with market rumours of substantial forward transactions, weighed heavily on sentiment. Trade chatter indicates that Côte d’Ivoire’s regulator may have sold between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes of the mid-crop, alongside roughly 300,000 tonnes of the upcoming main crop. While pricing levels remain unconfirmed, the scale of reported volumes implies aggressive forward coverage and sustained producer hedging.

Physical buying activity in Ivory Coast resumed after Le Conseil du Café-Cacao allowed forward sales of the upcoming mid-crop without applying additional country and quality premiums above global futures benchmarks. Previously, premiums of $250–$470 per ton above international prices had stalled trade flows, leaving substantial volumes unsold as buyers resisted elevated differentials. The new approach marks a pragmatic concession designed to restore commercial momentum. Although the Living Income Differential (LID) of $400 per ton remains formally intact, the effective removal of extra forward premiums signals policy flexibility in response to weaker global prices.

Cocoa Buying Restarts in Ivory Coast After Regulator Adjusts Pricing Policy

Cocoa buying activity has resumed in Ivory Coast after the country’s regulator adjusted its pricing approach, bringing export offers back in line with international market levels. The move follows months of tension between exporters and authorities that had resulted in significant volumes of beans remaining unsold. The national regulator,

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

With the mid-crop beginning in April, forward commercialization is expected to accelerate. Industry and trade analysts have generally estimated production in the 400,000–450,000 tonne range, based on field surveys and pod development assessments. However, a more recent report cited by Cocoa Intel indicates that Côte d’Ivoire is officially forecasting the 2025/26 mid-crop at approximately 350,000 tonnes. The gap between private trade estimates and the lower official projection highlights ongoing uncertainty around crop recovery and weather-related stress, while still pointing to a meaningful mid-crop flow entering export channels.

Ivory Coast Forecasts 2025/26 Mid-Crop Production at 350,000 Tons

The government of Côte d’Ivoire has forecast its 2025/26 mid-crop cocoa production at 350,000 metric tons, a figure that immediately influences global supply expectations for the second half of the season. While the number may appear stabilizing at first glance, it does not represent a full recovery.

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Ivory Coast’s cocoa bean exports declined 2.8% year-on-year to 1.011 million metric tons as of February 20, compared with 1.040 million tons during the same period last season. Although cumulative exports remain relatively steady, port arrivals have slowed in recent weeks. This reflects weaker price incentives and the unwind of last year’s exceptional rally rather than structural supply shortages.

Significant volumes had accumulated inland during the premium standoff period. The current policy shift suggests that supply is now being actively commercialized rather than withheld.

Ghana’s licensed cocoa buyers currently owe local banks between 7 and 8 billion cedis (approximately $650–$750 million), creating renewed liquidity stress within the supply chain. Buyers have delivered approximately 580,000 metric tons of cocoa to Cocobod this season but are still awaiting payment on portions of these deliveries. Meanwhile, roughly 70,000 metric tons remain in the fields and have yet to enter the formal marketing channel. Heavy borrowing to prefinance purchases, delayed payments, and two consecutive weak harvests have compounded financial strain. Interest costs continue to accumulate as margins compress in a lower-price environment.

According to Reuters, the newly reduced farmgate price will apply to roughly 100,000 metric tons, meaning a portion of outstanding and upcoming deliveries will be priced under revised terms. Ghana is also considering reforms to its price-setting mechanism to better align domestic prices with global benchmarks.

While banks are restructuring loans and authorities state there is no immediate systemic threat, exposure remains significant. The situation underscores structural vulnerability within Ghana’s cocoa financing model, particularly during periods of price correction.

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture has temporarily suspended cocoa bean imports from Côte d’Ivoire, citing phytosanitary concerns following the detection of insect infestations in recent shipments arriving at Brazilian ports. Brazil has retained the affected cargoes and put new import authorizations for Ivorian cocoa on hold pending formal clarification and assurances from Ivorian officials that exported beans do not contain mixed-origin product that fails to meet Brazil’s sanitary requirements. The move is precautionary and, if prolonged, could affect short-term bean availability for Brazilian grinders and processors, potentially influencing regional procurement strategies; however, if resolved quickly the impact on global supply and pricing should be limited.

Brazil Suspends Cocoa Imports from Ivory Coast Over Phytosanitary Concerns

Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture has temporarily suspended cocoa bean imports from Ivory Coast, citing phytosanitary concerns, according to an official statement reported by Reuters on 24 January 2026. The decision follows the detection of insect infestation in recent shipments arriving at Brazilian ports. Authorities have retained the affected cargoes

CocoaIntelCocoa Intel

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

The US cocoa market (Mar–Dec 2026 strip) remained in contango on both 24-Feb and 25-Feb 2026, but unlike London, the move was characterized by front-end weakness rather than a clean parallel shift. On 24-Feb, the Mar/Dec spread was +247 (3027 to 3274), reflecting a pronounced carry structure. On 25-Feb, despite sharp selling in the nearby contract (Mar -70), the Dec contract declined much less (-16), widening the Mar/Dec spread to +301 (2957 to 3258). This represents a steepening of +54 points in one session. Structurally, the market did not transition toward backwardation; instead, contango expanded materially due to disproportionate pressure in the front month. This indicates absence of nearby physical tightness and suggests either long liquidation in the prompt contract or a reassessment of short-term demand, while deferred contracts remained comparatively supported.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

On 25-Feb-2026 the UK cocoa front strip (Mar–Dec 2026) shifted higher across the board compared with 24-Feb-2026, producing a clean bullish parallel move. Mar gained +9, May +11, Jul +11, Sep +15, and Dec +16. The strength slightly increased toward the back of the front strip, indicating mild steepening from Mar to Dec. There was no sign of stress liquidation or front-month pressure; instead, the move was orderly and broad-based, suggesting steady buying interest rather than short covering concentrated in one contract. Structurally, this reflects stable demand or currency-adjusted support rather than a supply shock. In contrast to the US market’s front-end weakness the same day, London showed resilience and underlying bid tone, implying inter-market divergence and potential spread rebalancing rather than global cocoa liquidation.

Contango vs Backwardation

Both the UK and US cocoa markets were in clear contango on 24-Feb and 25-Feb 2026, with deferred contracts consistently priced above nearby months.

In the UK market (Mar–Dec 2026), the structure was orderly and upward sloping on both days, with the Mar/Dec spread widening slightly from +130 to +137. This reflects a normal carry environment with no sign of physical tightness, and only mild steepening driven by relatively stronger deferred support.

In the US market, contango was significantly steeper and expanded materially between the two sessions. On 24-Feb, the Mar/Dec spread was +247 (3027 to 3274). On 25-Feb, after heavy front-month selling (Mar -70) and smaller losses in Dec (-16), the spread widened sharply to +301 (2957 to 3258), a +54 point steepening in one day.

Importantly, neither market showed any backwardation signal. The curve structure in both regions indicates absence of nearby supply stress. However, the US curve steepened aggressively due to front-end liquidation, whereas the UK curve steepened modestly through steady, broad-based buying. This divergence suggests different flow dynamics rather than a global structural shift in cocoa fundamentals.

US–UK May Spread

$3,057 − (2,174 x 1.356$/£) =$109 ton (down from $171/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

US Cocoa (CC)

In the US cocoa market CC, volume fluctuated throughout the period, with notable spikes between 17 and 20 February, where daily turnover reached 67,000 to 71,000 contracts. This surge in activity coincided with rising open interest, which increased from 154,642 on 17 February to 165,291 on 20 February. Rising volume alongside rising open interest indicates new positions being initiated rather than short covering or liquidation. After 20 February, daily volume moderated, but open interest continued to climb, reaching 173,446 by 24 February. This divergence, meaning lower turnover but sustained growth in open interest, suggests conviction positioning rather than distribution. Overall, the US market appears to be in an accumulation phase, with capital entering rather than exiting.

UK Cocoa (London C)

In the UK cocoa market London C, the pattern is even more structurally consistent. Open interest rose almost continuously from 183,412 on 9 February to 217,253 by 24 February, an increase of nearly 34,000 contracts in just over two weeks. Volume spikes, particularly around 12 February and 20 February, aligned with strong gains in open interest, confirming that these sessions were driven by new position building. Even on lower volume days, open interest continued to expand, reinforcing the view of steady structural accumulation. Unlike the more episodic build up in the US market, London shows a smoother and more persistent expansion of exposure.

Cocoa ICE Stocks

US certified cocoa stocks have expanded sharply through February, rising from roughly 330,000 bags around 10 February to 498,838 bags by 25 February, with total US warehouse bags reaching 2,150,953, reflecting a sustained increase in deliverable supply and reinforcing the contango structure in US futures. In the UK and broader ICE Europe system, total warehouse bags increased from 555,156 on 24 February to 581,563 on 25 February, marking a notable one-day rise, but the overall February trend remains more stable compared with the aggressive US build. While the US is experiencing accelerated certification and inventory growth, the UK market shows a more moderate stock profile, suggesting that the supply expansion is more pronounced in the US than in Europe, and that current futures dynamics are influenced more by regional inventory flows than by global physical tightness.

Stock-to-Grind ratio

In the US, the stock-to-grind ratio stands at 32.16 percent, equivalent to approximately 117 days of grind coverage. This indicates a substantial buffer of certified deliverable supply relative to processing demand, reinforcing the observed contango structure and reducing the probability of nearby physical stress. In contrast, the UK stock-to-grind ratio is just 2.8 percent, representing only about 10.2 days of grind coverage.

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.