Daily Cocoa Market Report (25 March 2026): Cocoa Extends Losses

Cocoa futures extended their decline during the session, with the nearby contracts falling sharply on a day-on-day basis. May-26 declined by 3.03%, with similar losses across the front of the curve (Jul-26 -2.79%, Sep-26 -2.72%), reflecting broad-based selling pressure and weak sentiment. Prices closed near session lows, reinforcing the bearish tone despite increasingly oversold technical conditions.

There were no major immediate market-moving headlines during the session. However, attention remains on developing weather risks, particularly around a potential El Niño event later this year. According to trade house Sucafina, El Niño could emerge around the third quarter, potentially bringing drier and hotter conditions across key tropical producing regions.

While it is still too early to determine the strength of the event, current expectations point to clearer indications by May–June. Early assessments suggest that such conditions could negatively impact crop development, with potential implications for cocoa and coffee production into early 2027.

At the same time, near-term West African fundamentals remain stable. Weather conditions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana continue to be broadly favorable, supporting good canopy development and above-average pod survival rates. Mid-crop expectations remain unchanged, with Ivory Coast projected at around 400,000 metric tons and Ghana’s total harvest near 550,000 metric tons.

Futures Performance

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

NY cocoa futures moved sharply lower on 24 March, with consistent losses across the front five contracts. The decline was led by May-26 (-3.03%) and Jul-26 (-2.79%), with percentage losses gradually compressing further out the curve. This confirms a front-loaded bearish structure, where selling pressure is concentrated in the nearby maturities and weakens along the forward curve. The shape of the move reflects liquidation-driven pressure and a lack of near-term buying interest.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

London cocoa futures also declined across the curve, with percentage losses again heaviest in the nearby contracts and moderating into the deferred structure. May-26 (-3.31%) and Jul-26 (-3.12%) led the downside, while the back end showed smaller relative declines. Compared to NY, London exhibits a slightly steeper front-end pressure profile, but similarly transitions into a more stable long-end. The overall configuration indicates broad-based selling with front-end stress and easing pressure further out, consistent with soft demand conditions in the nearby market.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)
EFP/EFS activity remained limited, with no indication of significant physical-related flows driving price action. The session was dominated by futures-led selling, with little evidence of strong cash-futures arbitrage engagement. This suggests that the decline was primarily speculative or fund-driven rather than triggered by shifts in physical market positioning.

Spread activity showed a clear bias toward nearby selling versus deferred buying, consistent with the observed front-loaded weakness. The May/Jul and Jul/Sep spreads came under pressure, reflecting liquidation in the front of the curve. Further out, spreads were comparatively more stable, indicating less aggressive positioning in the long end. Overall, the curve exhibited mild flattening, with the front weakening more than deferred contracts.

London Cocoa Futures (C)
EFP and EFS flows were similarly subdued, with no notable surge in physical hedging or conversion activity. Market behavior suggests that price direction was largely driven by futures market participants rather than underlying physical demand shifts.

Spread trading in London was more orderly and linear compared to New York. The nearby spreads softened, particularly May/Jul, but without sharp dislocations. Deferred spreads remained relatively anchored, reinforcing the view of a steady rather than aggressive repositioning. The curve maintained a gradual easing structure, with limited volatility in inter-month relationships.

US–UK May Spread

$3,135 − (2334 x 1.336$/£) =$17 ton (up from $-4)

Volume and Open Interest

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

Total volume on 25 March printed at 32,167 lots, up modestly from 30,932 lots on 24 March. This represents a slight pickup in activity following the prior session’s decline in turnover, but still remains below the higher participation levels seen earlier in the month (typically 35–42k range).

Open interest for 25 March is not yet reported, but as of 24 March stood at 194,510, marking a steady build from ~190k levels earlier in the period. The combination of falling prices with previously rising OI is indicative of net short positioning being added into the market rather than long liquidation alone. The increase in volume alongside the sharp price decline reinforces the view of active selling participation, likely driven by systematic or fund flows.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

London cocoa volume increased to 25,276 lots on 25 March from 21,814 lots on 24 March, representing a more notable rebound in activity compared to New York. Despite this increase, volumes remain below the early-March highs (~30–38k), suggesting participation is still not at peak levels.

Open interest data for 25 March is pending, but as of 24 March stood at 206,068, continuing a gradual upward trend from ~200k earlier in the month. Similar to NY, this pattern "rising OI into a falling market" points to fresh short interest entering the market, rather than purely position reduction.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect Tomorrow

Cocoa futures remain under clear bearish pressure across all timeframes, with price trading well below key moving averages and maintaining a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The broader trend is intact and momentum indicators, particularly MACD and OBV, continue to confirm downside dominance. At the same time, the market is technically oversold, with daily RSI near 30 and stochastic deeply compressed, which increases the likelihood of a short-term corrective bounce.

For the next session, the most probable path is a weak opening tone with an initial test of nearby support around 3120–3130. A break below this level would expose 3100 and potentially extend toward the 3050 area if selling momentum accelerates. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face resistance in the 3150–3200 range, where previous support has turned into supply. Only a sustained move above this zone would begin to stabilize the structure, but at this stage such a scenario appears secondary.

The market is best characterized as bearish but stretched, with downside continuation still favored, while acknowledging the increased probability of short-covering rallies that are likely to remain corrective unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.