Daily Cocoa Market Report (26 Feb 2026): Ivory Coast Advances Mid-Crop Season Amid Growing Market Strain

Ivory Coast plans to bring forward the start of its cocoa mid-crop season and cut the price paid to farmers, according to government and regulatory sources cited by Reuters. The changes are expected to take effect on March 1, marking the first time the mid-crop will begin earlier than usual. The move follows a similar decision by Ghana earlier this month to reduce its farmgate price, as both countries respond to a sustained decline in global cocoa prices.

Under the new framework, cocoa produced in Ivory Coast from this month onward will be classified as mid-crop rather than main crop. Farmers are expected to receive between 800 and 1,000 CFA francs per kilogram (approximately $1.45–$1.81/kg), sharply below the main crop price of 2,000 CFA francs per kilogram. The mid-crop season, which typically runs from April to September, will now start in March and end earlier, around late August.

Authorities say the measure is intended to boost export sales and reduce the buildup of unsold beans. The recent drop in global prices has made Ivorian cocoa less competitive, leading to inventories accumulating both inland and in ports. In January, the Coffee and Cocoa Council pledged to purchase 100,000 tons of unsold cocoa at an estimated cost of about $200 million in an effort to stabilize the sector.

However, government officials acknowledged that continued price support is fiscally unsustainable. The state has been subsidizing the difference between the guaranteed farmgate price and the lower price paid by exporters, a gap that has widened as international prices declined. One official described the current model as “completely unsustainable in the long term.”

Beyond Ivory Coast’s decision to cut the mid-crop farmgate price, two additional developments are materially relevant to the cocoa market.

First, Ghana’s cocoa buyers are facing significant liquidity pressure, with reports indicating that licensed buying companies owe local banks an estimated 650 to 750 million dollars. The strain stems from falling global cocoa prices, delayed payments within the marketing system, and the financing model that requires buyers to borrow heavily to purchase beans at the state-set price. As prices declined, margins compressed and repayment capacity weakened. Banks are now restructuring loans, but the situation underscores growing financial stress within Ghana’s cocoa supply chain. This development is important because Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. Liquidity constraints at the buyer level can disrupt bean purchasing, slow farmgate payments, and affect export flows. While not an immediate bullish signal, it adds systemic risk to the West African supply chain.

Second, the World Cocoa Foundation announced that its president will step down later this year. Although this is not a direct price driver, leadership changes within major industry bodies can influence sustainability frameworks, sourcing standards, and long-term policy coordination between producing and consuming countries. Given the current stress across West Africa’s cocoa systems, including pricing adjustments, stock accumulation, and financial strain, governance and strategic direction within global industry organizations take on added importance.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

On 26-Feb-2026, the ICE US cocoa market showed a partial front-end recovery compared with 25-Feb prices. The Mar-26 contract closed at 2,974 versus 2,957 the prior day (+17), confirming that the sharp selloff on 25-Feb was at least partly technical and met with short-covering or opportunistic buying. However, that strength faded quickly along the curve: May-26 rose only +7, while Jul-26 (−1), Sep-26 (−4), and Dec-26 (−1) were flat to slightly softer relative to 25-Feb levels. This pattern indicates that the rebound was concentrated in the prompt month rather than a parallel shift higher across the strip. Structurally, the curve remains in contango and the limited response in deferred contracts suggests no emergence of nearby physical tightness. The move looks corrective, not the beginning of a broader bullish repricing.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

In contrast, ICE London cocoa displayed continued front-end weakness. Mar-26 closed at 2,142 versus 2,156 on 25-Feb (−14), with losses moderating gradually through the curve (May −9, Jul −6). The deferred months were marginally firmer (Sep +1, Dec +2), implying relative support further out. This creates a mild steepening dynamic: pressure concentrated in the nearby contracts while deferred maturities held steady. Such behavior typically reflects soft short-term demand or ongoing liquidation in the prompt contract rather than structural supply stress.

Contango vs Backwardation

Both the ICE US and ICE London cocoa markets remain firmly in contango across the Mar–Dec 2026 strip, with no evidence of backwardation. In the US market, Mar-26 closed at 2,974 on 26-Feb versus Dec-26 at 3,257, maintaining a substantial positive carry of roughly 283 points. Although this spread narrowed slightly compared with the prior session, the curve is still clearly upward sloping, meaning each deferred contract trades at a premium to the nearby month. This structure signals the absence of physical tightness or urgent spot demand. Instead, it reflects adequate nearby supply and a market pricing in storage, financing, and time value rather than scarcity.

US–UK May Spread

$3,064 − (2,126 x 1.348$/£) =$198 ton (up from $109/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

Between 13-Feb and 26-Feb 2026, US cocoa futures show a clear expansion in open interest alongside elevated trading activity during mid-month. Volume peaked on 19-Feb at 71,477 contracts, following two strong sessions on 17-Feb (67,185) and 18-Feb (68,631). This cluster of high-volume days coincided with a steady rise in total open interest from 154,642 (17-Feb) to 165,291 (20-Feb), indicating new position creation rather than pure liquidation. Rising price volatility combined with increasing open interest during that window suggests fresh speculative or commercial positioning entering the market.

From 20-Feb onward, volume normalized (37k–48k range), yet open interest continued to climb materially: 169,332 (23-Feb), 173,446 (24-Feb), and 177,313 (25-Feb). This is structurally important. Even though daily turnover moderated, the persistent increase in open interest implies positions were being added on balance, not closed. That behavior is consistent with medium-term positioning rather than short-term day trading.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa shows a similar but even stronger structural build in open interest. From 183,412 on 9-Feb, total open interest increased steadily to 217,840 by 25-Feb. That is a substantial expansion over a short time frame, indicating persistent net new positioning in the market.

Volume dynamics show several active sessions, notably 12-Feb (60,325) and 20-Feb (61,745), but more importantly, open interest rose even on moderate-volume days. For example, on 23-Feb, volume was only 33,684, yet open interest increased to 216,439. This pattern signals accumulation rather than churn. The market is absorbing contracts and building exposure.

Unlike a short-covering rally, which would typically reduce open interest, London’s data reflects structural commitment of capital. The steady climb in open interest, combined with a maintained contango curve, suggests positioning along the term structure, likely calendar spreads or deferred exposure rather than urgent nearby hedging.

Cocoa ICE Stocks

US certified stocks have shifted decisively into an accumulation phase from early February onward. After remaining relatively stable in the 190k–220k range through January, inventories began accelerating sharply around 10-Feb and continued rising almost uninterrupted into late February. By 26-Feb, certified stocks reached 510,819 lots, representing an increase of roughly 180,000 lots in just over two weeks. The daily changes confirm repeated large inflow sessions, including several substantial additions above 20,000–50,000 lots. At the same time, total US deliverable bags increased steadily, rising from approximately 1.63 million in early January to 2,155,913 by 26-Feb. This confirms that the expansion is structural and not a temporary accounting anomaly. Such aggressive warehouse inflows indicate comfortable nearby supply conditions and strongly support the prevailing contango structure in the US cocoa curve.

In Europe, the pattern is similar though less extreme. Total EU bags remained broadly stable through most of January but showed a meaningful step-up in late February, with a sharp two-day increase that pushed stocks to 591,250 by 25-Feb. The daily changes reflect sizeable inflows, particularly on 24-Feb and 25-Feb. While the magnitude is smaller than in the US, the direction is consistent: inventories are building rather than tightening. This synchronized accumulation across both delivery systems reinforces the absence of physical stress in the global cocoa market.

Stock-to-Grind ratio

As of 26-Feb-2026, the stock-to-grind ratios highlight a pronounced divergence between the US and UK delivery systems. In the US, certified stocks represent 32.23% of annual grindings, equivalent to approximately 118 days of processing coverage.

In contrast, the UK stock-to-grind ratio stands at just 2.85%, equivalent to roughly 10.4 days of grind coverage.

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

What to expect tomorrow

US cocoa remains in a primary downtrend on the daily timeframe, with price holding near 3,060 after an extended multi-week decline. The major moving averages are still sloping downward and positioned well above current price, confirming that the broader structure is bearish. Momentum indicators remain negative on the higher timeframe, although RSI is now deeply oversold, increasing the probability of a short-term corrective bounce. On the intraday charts, price has stabilized in the 3,040–3,080 range, volatility has compressed, and momentum has flattened, suggesting the market is pausing rather than accelerating lower. This type of compression typically precedes a breakout.

In terms of expected price movement, the most probable near-term scenario is a technical rebound toward the 3,120–3,200 zone, driven by oversold conditions and short-covering. However, unless price can reclaim and hold above the 3,250–3,300 area on a daily closing basis, any upside move should be treated as corrective within a broader bearish trend. If 3,000 breaks decisively, the downtrend likely resumes with downside targets near 2,900–2,950. Structurally, with rising certified stocks and a firm contango backdrop, the bias still favors pressure on rallies rather than sustained upside continuation.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.