Daily Cocoa Market Report (29 Dec 2025): Good weather but low port deliveries

The cocoa market returned from the holidays with a renewed pulse in the futures tape, underpinned by re-engaged U.S. liquidity and a comparatively softer European close. On Monday,U.S. cocoa carried forward the mid-December bid structure, with nearby contracts closing sharply higher versus the last printed reference session, reinforcing that buying interest remains concentrated in the front of the curve. London cocoa also opened with energy, trading a broad GBP 317 intraday range across the 2-month structure, but struggled to preserve momentum into settlement, a profile consistent with thin-book chop and tactical length management as European desks rotated risk after the break. Total participation of ~17K lots gross in London signalled a market waking up rather than fully committing, while the U.S. strip benefitted from late-afternoon buying flows that typically influence settlement beyond the London close.

Physical arrivals into Côte d’Ivoire have softened over the holiday window. Exporters estimate that cumulative Ivorian arrivals reached 1.028 million metric tons by 28-Dec-25, down 2.47% year-on-year versus the same seasonal window, while 60,000 tons of beans were delivered to Abidjan and San Pedro (22–28 Dec), down from 82,000 tons last season, reflecting the expected holiday slowdown.

Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports reached 1.028 million metric tons by December 28

Abidjan, Dec 29 (Reuters) — Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports reached 1.028 million metric tons by December 28, covering the period from the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1. This marks a 2.47% decline compared to the same date last season, Reuters reported on Monday.

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French cocoa trading house Sucres et Denrées SA has shut its cocoa-buying operations at the port of San Pedro in Côte d’Ivoire amid ongoing market disruption during the peak of the West African main harvest. The closure, reportedly occurring as international cocoa prices have fallen sharply and local exporters face logistical and financial strains, removes a key procurement hub near major producing regions and reflects mounting volatility in the origin market. While Sucden continues to operate from Abidjan, the decision underscores the pressures on buyers and port infrastructure as truck-backlogs and inventory build-ups have accompanied weaker global demand and price declines this season

Sucden Closes Cocoa Buying Center in San Pedro Amid Market Turmoil

French agricultural commodities trader Sucres et Denrées SA (Sucden) has shut down its cocoa buying operations in San Pedro, Ivory Coast’s major cocoa export port, according to people familiar with the matter. The closure occurs at the height of Ivory Coast’s main harvest season, when cocoa production and

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The market now looks ahead to Wednesday’s return of a normal COT release cadence, where the latest snapshot still shows funds reducing shorts into December’s rally, but not yet rebuilding fresh net length with conviction.

Weather

Late-December weather across Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana remains squarely in the dry-season regime, with micro-variability driving local crop expectations more than national averages.

Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) reported light rains last week in western and central cocoa-growing regions, particularly around Soubre, Daloa, and Yamoussoukro, providing brief relief but insufficient to materially improve soil-moisture balances. Farmers in Soubre logged roughly 8.6 mm of rainfall, with Daloa recording 8.0 mm, both running above the 5-minute seasonal average yet still signaling below-average accumulation for late December. Plantations continue to show healthy pod development in areas where drainage and shade management are optimized. Meanwhile, the Abidjan–San Pedro corridor is reporting manageable humidity and moderate heat, confirming that any softness in bean arrival or port flow is tied to holiday logistics rather than climate disruption.

Ghana remained comparatively drier than Côte d’Ivoire across the same window. Scattered showers were logged in southern cocoa belts, but totals were too low to shift reservoir or soil profiles. The Harmattan has begun filtering into the region with moderate early-season intensity; winds are drying surface moisture but have not yet triggered the flower loss or cherelle-wilt stress historically linked to stronger January pulses. Temperatures across key cocoa cities in both countries have ranged between 27–32 °C, consistent with expected December climatology, avoiding both heat-shock extremes and rainfall-driven black-pod pressure.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers Signal Stronger 2025/26 Yields Despite Weather Irregularities

(Source: Reuters, Dec 29, 2025) Cocoa farmers across Ivory Coast anticipate above-average January–March 2026 harvest volumes, citing improving crop prospects during the final stage of the October-to-March main season, according to a Reuters field report. Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is currently in its official dry

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Futures Performance

New York Cocoa (CC – ICE US)

London Cocoa (C – ICE Europe)

Contango/Backwardation

The front cocoa curve on 29-Dec-2025 remains in backwardation on both ICE U.S. (CC) and ICE Europe (London C), confirming prompt strength over deferred pricing. The U.S. strip held a gentle upward slope from Mar-26 through Jul-26 before a minor dip at Sep-26, a sign of tail-end spread stalling but not contango. London stayed fully inverted, yet the Mar-to-May and May-to-Jul segments were nearly flat, showing a compressed and defended backwardation rather than an aggressively accumulated bid. The progressive widening of the U.S.–London spreads into mid-curve highlights that Monday’s reopen was U.S. liquidity-led and front-spread technical, while Europe’s momentum faded into settlement, keeping the structure inverted but fragile.

US–UK Spread

$6,255−(4,491£×1.351$/£)=$242(down from $284)

Volume & Open Interest

New York Cocoa (ICE US)

Turnover remained seasonally constrained across the holiday window, with extremely light activity on Dec 24 and a modest rebound by Dec 29 as some participants returned. Open interest stayed elevated into late December (through the latest reported session), consistent with risk being carried through year-end rather than broadly unwound—more “hold and manage” positioning than capitulation.

London Cocoa (ICE Europe)

London liquidity was even thinner around the holidays. Open interest has remained broadly stable at high levels (through the latest reported session), pointing to structural hedging/position maintenance and selective rebalancing rather than outright liquidation into year-end.

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If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.