Daily Cocoa Market Report (29 Jan 2026): Cocoa Market Stabilizes Despite Heavy Surplus Signals and Weak Demand

On 29 January 2026, cocoa futures staged a technical rebound following the sharp liquidation on 28 January, with gains concentrated at the front of the curve. In ICE US cocoa (CC), the March-26 contract settled at 4,230 (+2.03%), while May-26 rose 2.02% to 4,294. Jul-26 and Sep-26 advanced 1.69% and 1.57%, respectively, with Dec-26 ending 1.30% higher at 4,427.

In ICE London cocoa (C), price gains were more muted, with Mar-26 closing at 2,916 (+0.69%) and most deferred contracts rising between 0.5% and 0.7%, indicating stabilization rather than renewed upside momentum.

Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) has officially launched a state-backed programme to purchase cocoa beans directly from producers, committing to buy 100,000 tonnes of cocoa through the end of March, at a pace of roughly 10,000 tonnes per week. The initiative follows mounting domestic surpluses after exporters refused to purchase beans at the guaranteed farmgate price of 2,800 CFA francs per kilogram (approximately $5,100 per tonne). Exporters and cooperatives have argued that Ivorian cocoa is currently overpriced relative to global market levels, calling for a reduction in price differentials and the elimination of the Living Income Differential (LID). The CCC has indicated that purchased stocks will be stored temporarily and released if export demand improves, in an effort to stabilize the domestic market and prevent farmer distress.

On the global balance outlook, StoneX Market Intelligence estimates the cocoa market will record a 287,000-ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, unchanged from its previous forecast, followed by a 267,000-ton surplus in 2026/27. According to StoneX, the shift reflects expanded acreage and improved cultivation practices outside West Africa, particularly in Ecuador, combined with a sharp slowdown in industrial demand in response to sustained high prices. StoneX expects global cocoa stocks to rebuild toward historical averages over the next two seasons, with the stocks-to-use ratio projected to rise toward 40% by the end of 2026/27, reversing the severe inventory drawdowns seen in 2023/24.

Other forecasters continue to diverge in their assessments. CRA lowered its expected surplus for the 2025/26 season by 18,000 tonnes to 261,000 tonnes, while raising its forecast for 2026/27 by 138,000 tonnes to 419,000 tonnes. TRS maintains a more conservative outlook, projecting a 105,000-ton surplus in 2025/26 and a 251,000-ton surplus in 2026/27, underscoring uncertainty around the pace of supply recovery and demand normalization.

In Ghana, the continued rally in gold prices poses a longer-term structural risk to cocoa production. Elevated gold prices increase incentives for illegal small-scale mining (galamsey), potentially accelerating the conversion of cocoa farmland and complicating medium-term supply assumptions, even as near-term balance projections point to surplus conditions.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE US cocoa futures staged a technical rebound on 29 January, recovering part of the heavy losses recorded on 28 January. Gains were concentrated at the front of the curve, with March and May contracts rising just over 2%, indicating short-covering and dip-buying after an aggressive liquidation rather than fresh directional conviction. The tapering of gains toward the back months confirms the move was reactive and positioning-driven, not the start of a renewed bullish leg.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London cocoa futures also moved higher but with notably lower momentum, posting sub-1% gains across the curve. The flatter performance versus New York suggests continued caution among London participants, with buying limited to technical stabilization rather than active risk re-engagement. The uniform but muted recovery indicates London remains a confirmation market, following US price action without independently asserting upside leadership.

Contango vs Backwardation

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)
The US cocoa curve on 29 January remains in clear contango. Prices rise progressively from Mar-26 (4,230) through Dec-26 (4,427), with the steepest slope concentrated in the front half of the curve. This structure signals that the market is not experiencing immediate physical tightness and that the recent rebound was driven by financial positioning rather than a sudden deterioration in nearby supply. The persistence of contango also confirms that the violent sell-off on 28 January did not flip the market into stress-mode backwardation.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)
London cocoa futures likewise trade in contango, though the curve is flatter and more orderly than in New York. The steady step-up from Mar-26 (2,916) to Dec-26 (3,079) reflects ample nearby availability and lower urgency for prompt coverage. London’s smoother term structure reinforces its role as a stabilizing market, indicating that despite recent volatility, underlying physical conditions do not currently justify a backwardated, shortage-driven pricing regime.

US–UK Spread

4,230 − (2,916 x 1.380$/£) =$206/ton (up from $149/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

US cocoa volumes compressed materially following the mid-January spike, with daily turnover stabilizing in the 32k–39k range from 22–29 January, well below the 58k peak seen on 14 January. This contraction confirms that the 28 January sell-off was not driven by expanding participation, but rather by liquidation within an already-established positioning base.

Open interest, however, rose steadily from approximately 139,600 on 14 January to 150,960 by 28 January, before the 29 January figure was unavailable. This divergence, falling volumes alongside rising open interest, indicates position accumulation rather than distribution, suggesting that new positions were being layered at lower prices rather than a wholesale exit from the market. The 29 January rebound therefore occurred against a backdrop of still elevated outstanding risk, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed volatility if confidence weakens again.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London cocoa volumes remained structurally lighter and more stable than New York, averaging roughly 25k–32k contracts into late January, with a single exception on 20 January. There is no evidence of panic-driven volume expansion during the US-led sell-off, reinforcing London’s role as a confirmation market rather than a driver.

In contrast to US cocoa, London open interest expanded aggressively, climbing from 160,237 on 14 January to 172,226 by 28 January. This persistent rise, paired with muted volume volatility, points to methodical position-building, likely from commercial or longer-horizon participants rather than short-term speculators. London’s structure therefore appears more stable but also more crowded, implying that while downside pressure is currently contained, any future unwind could be slow but persistent rather than abrupt.

The 29 January rebound occurred without volume confirmation in either market. This validates the move as technical and positioning-led, not the start of a new impulsive trend. Until volume expands with price and open interest begins to contract, the cocoa market remains fragile, reactive, and vulnerable to another downside test.

Certified Inventory Stocks

What to Expect Tomorrow

Price action across intraday, hourly, daily, and weekly charts points to a fragile stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal. The 5-minute and 1-hour charts show price hovering around 4230, repeatedly testing short-term moving averages with momentum flattening, not accelerating. RSI on lower timeframes is elevated but not overbought, while stochastics are rolling over, suggesting upside follow-through is losing energy.

On the daily chart, cocoa remains below key medium- and long-term moving averages, with the broader trend still decisively bearish. The rebound from recent lows lacks volume confirmation and occurs within a dominant downtrend structure. The weekly and long-term charts remain technically damaged, with no evidence yet of a structural base or trend change.

For tomorrow, the most likely scenario is range-bound to slightly weaker trade, with:

• 4230–4260 acting as near-term resistance
• 4180–4150 as the first downside test zone

Absent a clear volume expansion or a decisive reclaim of short-term resistance, rallies are likely to be sold into rather than chased. Volatility risk remains elevated due to high open interest, meaning any loss of confidence could quickly reintroduce downside pressure.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.