• Cocoa futures diverged sharply mid-week, with US cocoa edging higher while UK cocoa extended its decline. The March US contract firmed from 5,458 to 5,512 (+0.99%), while the March UK contract slipped from 4,024 to 4,007 (-0.42%).
• Rainfall remains above average across key cocoa-growing regions in Côte d’Ivoire, supporting tree health and pod development, although the harmattan remains the key seasonal risk.
• The ongoing restrictions on transport permits by the CCC continue to reshape the physical flow, easing port congestion but tightening near-term supply availability.
• Commerzbank emphasised that the ICCO’s smaller-than-expected surplus (49,000 tons) indicates that global tightness has not eased nearly as much as the price collapse suggested—arguing that the recent sell-off may have been exaggerated.

Supply Outlook

The fundamental picture remains mixed:

• Ivory Coast arrivals are stabilising but remain slightly below last season; however, weekly flows improved.
• The CCC estimates current-harvest production at 1.3 million tons, well below last year's 1.7 million, reinforcing structural pressure.
• ICCO’s latest estimate shows a 49,000-ton surplus for 2024/25, far below the 98,000-ton expectation from September surveys.
• CRA now projects an 8,000-ton deficit, cutting its outlook by 33,000 tons.
• The 2025/26 surplus CRA forecast was reduced by 20,000 tons to 265,000 tons, still large but less comfortable.

Weather Conditions

Weather across West Africa continues to lean supportive for near-term cocoa development. In Côte d’Ivoire, rainfall remains above average in multiple key growing zones, boosting soil moisture and helping strengthen tree canopies ahead of the February–March pod-filling period. Sunshine hours have also been favourable, striking a healthy balance that limits black-pod and fungal pressure while still allowing pods to ripen evenly. The Harmattan remains unusually mild for early December, with only moderate dryness observed so far; if this pattern persists, it will significantly reduce the risk of flower abortion and small-pod desiccation. In Ghana, conditions have mirrored this trend: intermittent showers across Ashanti, Western North, and Brong-Ahafo have helped maintain soil humidity, while daytime temperatures have stayed close to seasonal norms. Farmers in both countries report healthier tree conditions compared to last year, though they remain cautious—any late-December strengthening of the Harmattan could still stress young pods. For now, however, weather remains a net positive for yield potential, supporting expectations of stable main-crop output through January.

Market Commentary

Dealers are watching grindings closely: European cocoa processing fell 5.3% in 2024/25 and could weaken further into the 2025/26 season.
Commerzbank noted that the ICCO’s tight surplus projection suggests fundamentals have not deteriorated nearly as significantly as recent price action implied, calling the latest sell-off “potentially exaggerated.”

The most impactful development continues to be the CCC’s restriction on factory transport permits. By limiting truck authorizations strictly to each factory’s real unloading capacity, the regulator has:

• Reduced the artificial impression of oversupply
• Eased port congestion
• Stabilized farmgate prices
• Tightened short-term physical availability

This policy will heavily influence December–January flows and adds to the market’s structural supply tightness.

Certified Stocks

• US: 1,685,929 tons (down from 1,693,561)
• UK: 646,563 tons (up from 646,563)

Futures Performance

London Cocoa (LCC)

UK cocoa fell across all listed expiries, confirming continued weakness. Volume dropped to 19,668, and open interest was unchanged — reflecting a market lacking speculative long engagement.

NY Cocoa (CC)

US cocoa rose across the curve, reversing part of Tuesday’s decline. Volume was 16,536, with no posted OI update yet (expected tomorrow).

Volume & Open Interest

NY Cocoa (CC)

London Cocoa (LCC)

Both NY and London cocoa futures are showing clear signs that the downtrend is losing momentum, with volume steadily declining from mid-November into early December, indicating seller exhaustion rather than fresh bearish conviction. In New York, volumes have collapsed to extremely low levels—especially the 16,536 print on Dec 3—showing that buyers are absent and the market lacks liquidity, while open interest initially rose during November’s decline (a sign of aggressive short-selling) but then began to fall in early December, signaling short-covering and the early stages of a bottoming process.

London shows a healthier picture: volumes are stable rather than collapsing, and open interest has dropped sharply from the mid-November peak of 175,574 down to 159,123 by Dec 3, implying significant liquidation and short-covering, which often precedes a trend change.

Overall, the market is in a late-stage downtrend where selling pressure is fading, shorts are exiting, and both markets are transitioning into a bottoming phase, but a true bullish reversal will require rising volumes and rising open interest driven by new long positions, not just short-covering.

US–UK March Spread

$5,512−(4,007£×1.335$/£)=$163

The US premium over London narrowed to $163, reflecting a more balanced trans-Atlantic market.

Intraday Outlook

Tomorrow a small upward push toward the 5530–5600 zone could be expected, but this area contains the 200-MA resistance on multiple timeframes, making it the most likely point for the rally to stall. The 5-minute and 1-hour charts show mild upward momentum, but without strong volume behind the move, the price is likely to hit the 200-MA cluster, hesitate, and get rejected. The daily and weekly charts are still firmly bearish, with price sitting beneath all major long-term moving averages, meaning any bounce remains a bear-market rally rather than a true reversal. If bulls can break and hold above 5600, the move could extend toward 5680–5750, but unless volume sharply increases, the higher-probability scenario is a grind upward early in the session followed by a rejection and fade back toward 5450–5480, with 5400 as the lower pivot if selling accelerates.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.