Daily Cocoa Market Report (3 Feb 2026): Cocoa Rebound Lacks Conviction as Structural Risks Remain Unresolved

Cocoa futures closed higher on 3 February, extending the rebound from the late-January pullback, with gains recorded across both New York and London curves. In ICE US cocoa, the Mar-26 contract closed at 4,265, up 48 points from the previous session, while May-26 settled at 4,320 and Jul-26 at 4,362, confirming broad-based upside across the front and mid-curve. Strength tapered toward the back end, with Dec-26 closing at 4,434, but the upward slope of the curve remained intact.

ICE London cocoa outperformed on a relative basis. Mar-26 finished at 3,079, up 73 points, while May-26 and Jul-26 closed at 3,087 and 3,102 respectively. Deferred contracts also advanced, with Dec-26 settling at 3,163, reinforcing the view that the rally was not confined to the prompt month but reflected renewed confidence across the forward structure.

Despite the positive closes, price action remained measured rather than impulsive, indicating controlled re-engagement following the January correction. The session reflects a market transitioning from defensive positioning toward cautious accumulation, with London continuing to display stronger momentum than New York.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Supply

Ivory Coast authorities have detained two cocoa farmers’ union leaders following claims that up to 700,000 tonnes of cocoa beans were being held unsold in the country, a statement that triggered market disruption and contributed to a sharp drop in global cocoa prices late last month. The detentions followed a complaint by the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), which described the allegations as false, destabilising, and damaging to the sector.

The CCC firmly rejected the stockpile claims, stating that they were “completely impossible” given the pace of deliveries and export flows. According to the regulator, more than 1.1 million tonnes of cocoa had already been delivered to ports by end-December, and the October–March main crop is expected to total around 1.4 million tonnes, leaving roughly 300,000 tonnes to be delivered between January and March. Officials argued that the figures cited by the union leaders were inconsistent with physical market realities and export data.

Market participants confirmed that the statements caused significant confusion during a critical phase of the main crop marketing season. Exporters noted that the claims unexpectedly raised concerns about supply bottlenecks at a time when harvest activity and shipments were already near peak levels. European trade sources added that the comments unsettled the market precisely when visibility on flows was most important, amplifying volatility and undermining confidence.

Both detained union leaders have denied wrongdoing, while the CCC has filed a legal complaint alleging defamation and the dissemination of false information. The episode underscores the market’s continued sensitivity to supply narratives out of West Africa, where unverified claims can rapidly influence prices despite limited grounding in confirmed logistics or stock data.

Tony’s Chocolonely Reports Strong Sales Despite High Cocoa Costs

Tony’s Chocolonely, the Dutch chocolate maker known for its ethical sourcing and premium brands, reported that it sold more chocolate last year and generated higher revenues even after raising prices to offset elevated cocoa costs. The company’s revenue for the year ending September rose to around €240 million, marking a 20 % year-on-year increase, while losses narrowed significantly and earnings edged into positive territory. Consumer demand proved resilient despite average price increases of more than 30 % over the past 18 months, with sales volumes climbing about 4 %, particularly in the United States, now its largest market.

Tony’s sources the majority of its cocoa from West Africa and has resisted diluting product quality in response to rising raw material costs, opting instead to introduce smaller bar sizes to maintain volume. CEO Douglas Lamont highlighted that the brand’s ethical focus and product strength helped sustain consumer interest in a challenging pricing environment, where many competitors faced demand erosion due to higher commodity prices.

Industry observers have noted that this performance reflects broader dynamics in the cocoa value chain, where price volatility has pressured manufacturers but also underlined the importance of resilient supply practices. Tony’s continued growth, even amid cost headwinds, highlights how premium and ethically differentiated products can absorb raw material cost shocks better than conventional alternatives.

Mondelez

Cadbury owner Mondelez International has issued a cautious outlook for 2026, warning that sustained price increases driven by elevated cocoa costs are pushing consumers away and weighing on volume growth. The company said cost conscious shoppers, particularly in the United States, are tightening spending and trading down to cheaper alternatives, forcing manufacturers to rely on repeated price hikes to offset sharply higher input costs.

While Mondelez has already secured cocoa supplies for 2026 at rates above current spot levels, it acknowledged that near term pricing actions remain necessary. Management expects chocolate volumes to stabilise following last year’s pricing wave, but warned that consumer confidence, especially in the US, remains weak, with demand shifting toward value channels.

For 2026, analysts now forecast organic net revenue growth of 1 to 2 percent, down from prior expectations of around 3.8 percent, while adjusted profit growth is projected at 5 to 9 percent. This reflects continued cost inflation management rather than volume driven expansion. Recent results underscored the challenge, with fourth quarter volumes declining despite revenue growth, highlighting the limits of price led strategies.

Ghana Supply

Reports from Ghana indicate rising stress at the farm level, particularly in the Ashanti region, where some farmers are contemplating smuggling cocoa beans into neighbouring countries or selling land to illegal miners. These concerns are being driven in part by delayed payments, with Ghana’s cocoa regulator COCOBOD reportedly three months behind on payments to farmers. Such delays risk undermining official supply channels and could tighten reported arrivals if informal cross-border flows increase.

Weather Developments

On the weather front, isolated showers were recorded across parts of West Africa yesterday. While the rainfall may cause short-term delays to harvesting activity, volumes were limited and insufficient to materially improve soil moisture. More consistent rainfall remains necessary to support the upcoming mid-crop, leaving weather conditions a continuing area of concern for forward supply expectations.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE US cocoa futures extended their rebound, with firm gains across the entire curve. Strength remained front-loaded, led by Mar-26 and May-26, but the positive tone persisted into the back end, confirming that the move was not limited to short-covering. The flatter gains toward Dec-26 indicate steady but controlled repricing of medium-term supply risk rather than panic buying.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London cocoa materially outperformed New York, posting aggressive gains across both the front and mid-curve. The magnitude and consistency of the advances suggest renewed speculative participation rather than purely hedging flows. Notably, strength was well distributed from Mar-26 through Dec-26, reinforcing the view that the market is actively rebuilding a bullish structural premium after the late-January pullback.

Contango vs Backwardation

The ICE US cocoa futures curve remains in a clear state of contango. Prices increase steadily from the Mar-26 contract through to Dec-26, indicating that the market is not experiencing immediate supply stress. The front end is discounted relative to deferred months, which suggests comfortable nearby availability and the absence of urgency from physical buyers. The shape of the curve reflects a market that is pricing risk over time rather than scarcity in the prompt window, with deferred contracts carrying a premium for storage, financing, and longer-term supply uncertainty.

While the rally lifted all maturities, the contango structure confirms that yesterday’s gains were not driven by panic or forced nearby coverage. Instead, the market is rebuilding a medium-term risk premium after the late-January pullback, with confidence returning gradually rather than abruptly. The flatter slope beyond mid-2026 indicates that longer-dated supply concerns are present but not escalating aggressively.

In contrast, the ICE London cocoa curve also remains in contango but is notably flatter, particularly at the front end. The narrow spacing between Mar-26 and May-26 points to tighter nearby conditions in the European market and reduced willingness to discount prompt supply. This suggests firmer underlying demand for nearby coverage and less flexibility in physical availability compared with New York.

US–UK Spread

4,265 − (3,079 x 1.369$/£) =$50 ton (down from $101/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

Volume picked up meaningfully into the end of January and remained elevated into early February, confirming renewed market engagement following the late-January pullback. The spike on Jan 30 and sustained activity on Feb 2–3 suggest fresh positioning rather than thin, mechanical trading.

Open interest rose steadily from Jan 28 through Feb 2, indicating that new longs and shorts were being added to the market rather than positions being closed. This confirms that the recent price recovery has been accompanied by position building, not short-covering alone.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

London volumes were stable through late January before accelerating on Feb 3, coinciding with the market’s sharp price outperformance versus New York. The pickup in turnover confirms increased speculative and commercial engagement, particularly across the front and mid-curve.

Open interest climbed consistently over the last four reported sessions, rising sharply from Jan 28 to Feb 2. This pattern strongly suggests net new positions being established, reinforcing the view that the rally reflects conviction buying rather than short-term technical noise.

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What to Expect Tomorrow

Near-term price action in US cocoa is likely to remain range-bound with a slight bearish bias, unless fresh buying interest emerges early in the session.

On the intraday (5-min / 1-hour) charts, price has slipped back below short-term moving averages and is struggling to regain upside momentum. RSI on the lower timeframes is hovering around neutral to slightly weak territory, while MACD remains flat to mildly negative. This suggests that yesterday’s rebound lacked follow-through and that buyers are currently defensive rather than aggressive. Immediate resistance is clustered around 4,285–4,310, while initial support sits near 4,240–4,250.

On the daily chart, price is stabilising just above the recent swing lows near 4,250–4,300, but the broader structure still points to a corrective phase within a larger downtrend from the December highs. Momentum indicators remain soft: RSI is subdued, stochastics are attempting to turn higher from oversold but lack confirmation, and MACD is still deeply negative. This keeps the risk tilted toward consolidation or another shallow test of support rather than a clean upside breakout.

From a multi-day perspective, the market is trying to build a base, but it has not yet produced a convincing reversal signal. The failure to reclaim key medium-term moving averages means rallies are vulnerable to selling into strength. A sustained break below 4,230–4,200 would likely invite renewed downside pressure, while a close back above 4,320–4,350 would be needed to shift the short-term bias back to neutral-bullish.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.