Daily Cocoa Market Report (30 March 2026): Cocoa Stabilizes Near Lows as Supply Improves and Demand Weakens

• Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals reached 1.423 million tons as of March 29, down 1.2% year-on-year
• Farmers continue to sell actively despite lower farmgate prices
• Weather conditions are improving
• Demand remains weak, with first-quarter grinding expected to decline across Europe, Asia, and North America

Cocoa futures came under renewed pressure into the end of March, with prices declining broadly across the curve and the May-26 contract settling near 3,130. The move reflects a continuation of the recent downtrend, although price action has begun to stabilize following the sharp sell-off earlier in the month. Over the past few sessions, the market has entered a consolidation phase, trading within a relatively narrow range as downside momentum slows.

Cocoa arrivals in Ivory Coast, the world’s top producer, reached 1.423 million metric tons as of March 29, marking a 1.2% decline compared to the same period last season. Weekly arrivals totaled 31,000 tons, up from 14,000 tons the previous week, reflecting a notable pickup in short-term flows.

The increase in deliveries follows a one-month export halt earlier in March, which had delayed shipments and led to the release of previously withheld beans. Market participants report that farmers have been actively selling stocks despite a sharp drop in farmgate prices to around 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram, constrained by limited storage capacity. Quality and grading conditions are reported to remain stable.

Exporters estimate that around 100,000 metric tons of cocoa were purchased during March, helping to alleviate earlier concerns around producer-level supply tightness. Buying activity has intensified in recent weeks and is expected to accelerate further into April as exporters rebuild depleted inventories.

At the same time, weather conditions are turning increasingly supportive for the upcoming mid-crop. Above-average rainfall across most cocoa-growing regions has boosted expectations for a longer and more productive March-to-August harvest. Farmers report improving tree development, new leaf formation, and better yields compared to last year, with consistent rainfall in April seen as critical for pod maturation and overall crop quality. While harvesting has already begun in some areas with limited volumes, the combination of stronger recent arrivals and favorable weather points to easing near-term supply tightness and a potentially more abundant mid-crop, reinforcing a more bearish supply outlook in the weeks ahead.

Cocoa Weather

Cocoa Weather Forecast & Crop Impact Analysis Track cocoa weather conditions across Ivory Coast, Ghana, Brazil, and Indonesia, with crop-focused analysis of rainfall, temperature, drought risk, and market impact. West Africa cocoa weather analysis Ivory Coast Weather Forecast (Cocoa Belt) Ivory Coast is the largest cocoa producer globally, so rainfall, temperature,

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On the demand side, attention is shifting to first-quarter grinding data due on April 16 across ECA, CAA, and NCA regions. The Cocoa Association has projected declines of 2.9% in Europe, 11.5% in Asia, and 13.5% in North America, pointing to continued weakness in processing demand through the first half of the year, with a possible recovery only later in the year. Additionally, the potential arrival of El Niño conditions could introduce further volatility into the upcoming harvest cycle. Reuters also highlights an improving outlook for Ivory Coast mid-season rains, consistent with recent weather developments, reinforcing expectations for stronger supply conditions.

Futures Performance

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

Across the 27-Mar to 30-Mar comparison, NY cocoa futures (CC) exhibit a clear and uniform downward repricing along the entire curve. Front-month May-26 declined by approximately -0.98%, with losses gradually steepening into the deferred structure, reaching around -1.12% in Dec-26 before stabilizing slightly in Mar-27. The consistency of the move, clustered tightly around -1.0%, indicates a broad-based shift rather than contract-specific pressure. This type of parallel decline typically reflects macro-driven selling or systematic position reduction, rather than a change in prompt supply-demand conditions alone. The slightly larger percentage losses in the mid-to-back portion of the curve suggest that length in deferred contracts was more actively unwound.

London Cocoa Futures (C)

In contrast, London cocoa futures (C) remained comparatively stable over the same period. Price changes were modest and mixed, with front contracts (May-26 and Jul-26) easing by roughly -0.25% to -0.29%, while Sep-26 saw only a minor decline of -0.12%. Notably, Dec-26 posted a small gain of +0.12%, and Mar-27 was effectively unchanged at -0.04%. This pattern indicates that selling pressure was limited and selectively absorbed, particularly in the middle of the curve. The resilience in deferred contracts points to underlying structural support, potentially tied to commercial positioning or regional demand dynamics that differ from the NY market.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

EFP and EFS activity remains limited and concentrated in the front of the London curve, with EFP primarily observed in May-26 and Jul-26 and EFS appearing only in May-26, indicating that both physical-linked and swap-related adjustments are focused on prompt maturities with little evidence of deferred hedging. In contrast, spread activity dominates across both NY and London markets, with the highest volumes clustered in May-26 and Jul-26 before declining further along the curve, highlighting that participants are primarily engaging through calendar spreads rather than outright directional positions. This front-loaded and spread-driven profile suggests active roll and relative value positioning, while the lack of meaningful EFP and EFS beyond nearby contracts points to limited involvement in longer-dated physical or OTC-linked hedging.

US–UK May Spread

$3,130 − (2363 x 1.317$/£) =$18ton (down from $20)

Volume and Open Interest

Across the second half of March, both NY and London cocoa futures show a clear decline in daily trading volumes alongside a steady build in open interest, indicating a shift from active turnover toward position accumulation. In NY, volumes fall from over 40,000 lots on March 16th to around 24,800 by March 27th, before a modest rebound to 26,310 on March 30th, while open interest rises consistently from 190,007 to 200,544 over the same period.

London follows a similar pattern, with volumes easing from roughly 26,000 lots to 22,200 by March 27th and dropping further to 17,705 on March 30th, while open interest increases more markedly from 200,397 to 212,825. This combination of declining volume and rising open interest typically signals new positions being established rather than existing ones being liquidated, suggesting that participants are building exposure with lower day-to-day trading intensity. The stronger open interest growth in London relative to its sharper drop in volume points to a more deliberate accumulation process, while NY reflects a similar but slightly more balanced dynamic between participation and positioning.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

Data

📊 Grindings 📦 Inventory / Certified Stocks 🚢 Import / Export Flows ⚖️ Stock-to-Grind Ratio 📈 Futures Contracts 🔄 Futures Curve & Spreads 🧠 COT / Positioning 🚚 Port Deliveries 🌧️ Weather Dashboard 🌀 Options & Volatility 📅 Seasonality 📑 Institutional Reports 🗓️ Cocoa Calendar This section is currently under active development. We are building a structured, transparent cocoa market data platform covering futures analytics, certified stocks, positioning

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What to expect tomorrow

The market remains in a broader downtrend but has shifted into short-term consolidation around 3100–3150, with momentum indicators neutral to slightly bearish and no clear signs of accumulation. Price action across timeframes suggests limited upside conviction, with rallies failing to extend and support levels being gradually tested. For tomorrow, the most likely scenario is continued range trading with a mild downside bias, targeting 3080–3100, while any upside toward 3150–3180 is likely to remain capped unless a stronger break above resistance occurs.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.