Cocoa futures softened on Thursday as both London and New York extended mid-week weakness, with falling prices coinciding with declining volumes and stagnant open interest. Supply signals remain mixed, weather remains supportive, and certified stocks continue to diverge between the US and Europe.

Supply Outlook

The fundamental backdrop remains mixed. Ivory Coast arrivals have stabilized week-on-week but remain slightly below last season on a cumulative basis. The CCC’s updated assessment keeps structural tightness in focus, with current-harvest output estimated near 1.3 million tons, well below last year’s 1.7 million tons.
Globally, supply expectations continue tightening. ICCO’s latest update projects a modest 49,000-ton surplus for 2024/25 — far below the 98,000-ton surplus expected earlier. CRA moved further, now forecasting an 8,000-ton deficit, having reduced its outlook by 33,000 tons. For 2025/26, CRA trimmed its projected surplus by another 20,000 tons to 265,000 tons — still significant but less reliable given weather, aging trees, and the chronic need for large-scale farm renewal.

Weather Conditions

Weather continues to provide short-term support for yield potential. Rainfall across key cocoa belts in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana remains above seasonal averages, improving soil moisture and supporting pod development heading into the crucial pre-Harmattan period. Sunshine hours have remained adequate, helping reduce fungal pressure and improving ripening conditions.
The Harmattan remains unusually mild for early December, with only moderate dryness reported so far. Traders are watching whether winds strengthen later in the month, but current models show a controlled, moderate Harmattan — generally positive for the developing main crop.

Market Commentary

Commercial flows dominated Thursday’s session as speculative interest remained muted. Open interest across both exchanges was unchanged, signaling a lack of new fund participation and reinforcing that price weakness is being driven by commercial hedging rather than liquidation.
Rising certified stocks in Europe continue to weigh on London prices, while US certified stocks remain notably tighter. Commerzbank reiterated that the market may have overshot to the downside, given ICCO’s significantly smaller surplus and CRA’s shift into deficit territory.

Futures Performance

New York (ICE US)

US cocoa also weakened, but the decline was more moderate relative to London.
Volume was 23,397, and open interest again remained unchanged.

London (ICE Europe)

UK cocoa fell across all expiries, confirming continued weakness.
Volume dropped again to 21,792, while open interest was unchanged — reinforcing that London remains stuck under the weight of rising certified stocks.

Contango & Backwardation

Based strictly on the prices, London cocoa shows a front-end contango from Dec-25 into Mar- and May-26, but then flips into a clear mid-curve backwardation through Jul- and Sep-26 before flattening into 2027. This mixed structure signals near-term carry conditions, followed by a period of expected supply tightness in mid-2026. New York cocoa, by contrast, begins with a small Dec→Mar backwardation, then moves into firm contango through July 2026, after which the curve softens steadily into 2027. Overall, London’s curve is choppy and reflects mid-year stress, while New York presents a smoother curve peaking in mid-2026 and then declining, implying easing supply expectations later on.

US–UK Spread Update

$5,496−(3,973£×1.332$/£)=$204

The US premium over London increased to $204.

Volume & Open Interest

NY Cocoa (CC)

London Cocoa (LCC)

Over the last four trading days, cocoa futures activity cooled noticeably in both New York and London. NY Cocoa volume dropped sharply from 32,569 on December 1 to just 16,536 on December 3, before slightly recovering on December 4 — a clear sign that traders stepped back after the early-week surge. Open interest in NY remained stable near 120,000. London followed a similar pattern: strong volumes on December 1–2, then a meaningful decline by December 3–4. Open interest in LCC stayed high around 159,000–160,000, indicating that despite lower day-to-day trading activity, positions remain firmly held. Overall, the market shows shrinking short-term liquidity but steady long-term positioning, a typical pattern when traders pause after large moves to reassess direction.

Certified Stocks

• US certified stocks: 1,682,716 tons (down from 1,685,929)
• UK certified stocks: 712,031 tons (up from 684,531)

Intraday Outlook

Cocoa is currently stuck in a tightening consolidation across all short-term timeframes, trading around 5,496 with no clear direction. The 1H chart shows price capped under the 150 and 200 MAs with weakening momentum, while the 5-minute chart is pure noise with no trend at all. The daily chart shows a small rebound, but it is still just a relief rally inside a dominant downtrend, with major resistance overhead at 5,525–5,600. Weekly structure confirms that the broader trend remains decisively bearish, as price is still below all major weekly moving averages and momentum indicators remain weak. Until bulls can break and hold above 5,600, the market carries a bearish bias, and any rally into resistance is vulnerable to rejection. Short-term price action will likely remain choppy between 5,440 and 5,520 unless a catalyst forces a breakout.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.

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