Daily Cocoa Market Report (4 March 2026): Ivory Coast Cuts Mid-Crop Cocoa Farmgate Price by 57% as Government Moves to Boost Sales

Cocoa markets were influenced by developments in Côte d’Ivoire, where the government announced a sharp reduction in the farmgate price for the upcoming mid-crop. Authorities cut the fixed price paid to farmers by 57% to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram ($2.14) in an effort to align domestic prices with the recent decline in global cocoa futures and stimulate export demand. The new price will replace the main-crop farmgate price of 2,880 CFA francs per kilogram, which has been in effect since October.

The decision follows a similar move by neighbouring Ghana, which earlier reduced its farmgate price to align with international market conditions. In addition to the price cut, Ivory Coast also brought forward the start of the mid-crop harvest to March 1 from April 1, aiming to accelerate the sale of cocoa stocks accumulated during the main crop.

Ivory Coast Cuts Cocoa Farmgate Price to 1,200 CFA/kg

Ivory Coast has announced a farmgate cocoa price of 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram for the 2025/26 mid-crop, a level significantly higher than earlier expectations. Prior industry estimates suggested the government would set the price between 800 and 1,000 CFA/kg, reflecting the sharp drop in global

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Meanwhile, authorities moved to reassure farmers that a government programme to purchase excess cocoa inventories at guaranteed prices will continue. The programme was introduced to help stabilize farmer incomes after the sharp drop in global prices. Officials stated that approximately 23,000 tonnes of cocoa have already been purchased, and that the remaining stocks will be bought at the guaranteed main-crop price of 2,880 CFA francs per kilogram.

The measures come amid tensions with farmers and cooperatives, who had warned of protests and strikes if the stock-buying programme were halted prematurely. By confirming that the remaining inventories will be purchased, the government aims to ease pressure on farmers and prevent disruptions to cocoa deliveries during the ongoing harvest season.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

Cocoa futures strengthened across both exchanges between 3 March and 4 March, with gains visible throughout the forward curve in both New York and London markets. In ICE US cocoa futures, the nearby March 2026 contract increased from 2,941 to 2,968, representing a gain of 27 points (+0.9%). The May 2026 contract edged higher by 3 points to 3,025, while deferred contracts recorded stronger advances. July 2026 rose 17 points to 3,088, September climbed 28 points to 3,148, and December gained 34 points to close at 3,217. The larger increases in deferred maturities suggest strengthening longer-term price expectations and indicate a mild bullish steepening of the forward curve, implying that traders remain concerned about medium-term supply conditions rather than only near-term availability.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures exhibited even stronger percentage gains over the same period. The March 2026 contract advanced from 2,107 to 2,140, a gain of 33 points (+1.6%), while May 2026 rose 26 points to 2,171. Deferred contracts also strengthened, with July reaching 2,208 (+25), September 2,234 (+28) and December 2,282 (+30). The stronger performance in London relative to New York suggests renewed activity from European market participants, potentially reflecting hedging demand from grinders or short-covering by speculative positions.

Spread Trading Activity

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

Spread trading represented a substantial portion of the day’s activity. In New York cocoa futures, total spread volume reached 22,861 contracts, a significant proportion of overall trading. The majority of this activity occurred in the July contract (9,540 spreads) and May contract (6,794 spreads), suggesting heavy use of calendar spread strategies. Spread trading often reflects traders repositioning along the forward curve rather than taking outright directional bets. The concentration of spread trades between nearby and deferred months supports the observation that the market experienced curve adjustments and relative value trading rather than purely speculative directional buying.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures also recorded strong spread activity, with 13,833 spread contracts traded, primarily in July (4,197), May (3,603), and September (2,522) contracts. This reinforces the conclusion that curve management and calendar spread strategies played an important role in the day’s trading dynamics, particularly as market participants adjust positioning ahead of upcoming seasonal supply developments.

US–UK May Spread

$3,025 − (2,171 x 1.337$/£) =$122 ton (down from $158/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

Trading activity in ICE US cocoa futures continued to moderate. Total volume reached 37,179 contracts on 4 March, down from 40,985 on 3 March and well below the mid-February peak of 71,477 contracts. While activity briefly increased at the start of March with 58,822 contracts traded on 2 March, volumes have since declined, suggesting that the recent price rise occurred with more limited market participation.

Open interest in ICE US cocoa futures increased strongly during the second half of February, rising from 156,375 contracts on 16 February to a peak of 193,236 contracts on 2 March, reflecting a significant build-up of market positions. However, open interest eased slightly to 191,812 contracts on 3 March, suggesting some position reduction after the earlier expansion.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures showed a similar trend. Total volume fell to 21,831 contracts on 4 March, compared with 36,677 on 3 March and over 60,000 contracts during mid-February. The synchronized drop in trading activity across both exchanges indicates a temporary slowdown in market participation, typical of a short consolidation phase.

In London cocoa futures, open interest peaked at 218,163 contracts on 26 February before declining steadily to 205,163 contracts by 3 March. The combination of falling open interest and declining trading volumes suggests that some market participants have been reducing exposure following the heavy positioning seen in late February.

Cocoa ICE Stocks

What to expect tomorrow

Cocoa futures closed at 3,025, leaving the market in a consolidation phase near the 3,000–3,040 support zone. Short-term technical indicators show neutral momentum, with RSI around the mid-50 level and momentum indicators flattening after the recent rebound from the late-February lows. Price is currently trading close to key moving averages and has been stabilizing after the sharp decline from the 4,000+ levels earlier in the year, suggesting the market is attempting to build a short-term base. For the next session, the most likely scenario is continued sideways movement within the 3,000–3,060 range, as traders wait for new fundamental catalysts. A break above 3,060 could trigger further recovery toward 3,080–3,100, while a decisive move below the 3,000 psychological support would likely reopen downside pressure toward the 2,970–2,950 area.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.