Daily Cocoa Market Report (5 Jan 2026): Slower Ivory Coast Cocoa Port Deliveries

Ivory Coast cocoa port arrivals have declined on a weekly basis since mid-December, but this trend reflects a combination of policy-driven delivery pacing and seasonal movement patterns rather than pure logistical breakdown. In early December, Ivorian authorities tightened transport permits so that truck deliveries to Abidjan and San Pedro could only be made in line with daily port processing capacity — a deliberate measure aimed at easing congestion and supporting farm-gate prices by preventing oversupply at terminal silos.

In the latest COT window (23→30 Dec), UK commercials increased structural net longs while Managed Money funds built a larger net-short wall, confirming that front-end price action was capped by speculative rotation.

Unseasonal rains and mild Harmattan winds are currently improving pod fill and bean quality expectations for the February–March harvest, reducing near-term weather-shock risk but increasing the probability that supply tightness remains a flow timing issue, not a crop failure narrative.

Index-fund rebalancing and institutional demand expectations are likely to support short-term price, but without a prompt-scarcity squeeze developing yet.

Weather

Unseasonal rains have begun falling across key cocoa-growing regions of Ivory Coast, with last week’s precipitation—such as 25.3 mm near Soubre and 11.1 mm near Daloa—significantly above average for this mid-dry season period. Farmers report that these rains are timely and beneficial for the October–March main crop, helping pods reach their full potential in February and March and contributing to better bean quality and higher available volumes compared with the same stage last season. In central and eastern zones, above-average rain continued to sustain healthy crop development, while in southern regions near Agboville and Divo the moist conditions are likewise seen as supportive rather than disruptive. Weekly average temperatures remained elevated (27.7 – 30.7 °C), mitigating stress and enhancing flowering and pod set. Importantly, the expectation of uninterrupted harvesting through mid-January followed by a shift to focus on crop development through March, suggests that weather risk for the current main crop is diminishing and that the early supply slowdown seen in port arrivals is more structural than weather-induced.

Ivory Coast Port Arrivals

Ivory Coast port arrivals through 4 January 2026 totaled 1.071 million metric tons, a 3.4% decline year-on-year, confirming that early-season farm movement is softer than last season but not yet signaling structural breakdown. The most recent weekly window (29 Dec–4 Jan) delivered ~43,000 tons versus ~55,000 tons last year, indicating a deceleration in throughput as the market entered the new calendar year.

COT ANALYSIS

US — ICE Cocoa COT

Between 23 and 30 Dec 2025, the US cocoa market saw a major regime flip in speculative exposure, with Non-Commercials shifting by −1,085 net contracts, moving from a net-long posture into a net-short (absorbing commercial demand rather than driving price). Commercial hedgers modestly increased their net-short hedge by −268, confirming they were not the source of the structural shift. The dominant change came from spread trading, which expanded by +948 net, indicating that liquidity rotated into calendar and relative-value structures instead of outright directional bets. Retail (Non-Reportables) also increased short bias by −587, aligning with the speculative unwind. The overall delta confirms that the US rally into year-end was not built by new spec longs, but rather by spread-led rotation with specs and retail fading exposure, a setup that mechanically supports price through liquidity recycling, but lacks conviction-driven long buildup at the prompt end. This explains why US volumes stayed high while OI expansion remained limited — it was rotation-dominated, not exposure-anchored.

UK — ICE London Cocoa COT

From 23 to 30 Dec, the UK cocoa curve strengthened its commercial long dominance, with producers adding +2,668 net new long exposure, the largest commitment increase on the board. Swap Dealers marginally increased by +440, keeping carry support intact but largely unchanged. The critical shift occurred in the speculative cohort: Managed Money expanded its net short by −3,302, a material increase that absorbed the majority of the commercial long addition, preventing a steeper net-long market re-anchor. Retail traders (non-reportables) also increased short bias by −1,302, reinforcing the same theme. The positioning delta confirms that while commercial hedgers were building exposure, the market’s marginal price discovery into year-end was being actively capped by spec and retail selling pressure, leaving the curve directionally firmer, but not explosively repriced due to the growing non-commercial short wall. This is a classic commercial-vs-spec tug-of-war, where the commercials win structure, but specs control the short-term speed limit.

Futures Performance

ICE Cocoa Futures

US cocoa futures significantly outperformed the London curve, with the strongest momentum in the most liquid contracts (Mar/May/Jul-26), reflecting aggressive positioning at the front of the term structure. Percentage gains compressed sharply in Dec-26 (+2.04%) versus ~2.9–3.2% in the mid-curve, indicating that momentum weakened materially beyond Sep-26, a classic sign of directional flow favoring near-dated liquidity. The volume profile confirms deep liquidity in Mar-26 and May-26, supporting the thesis that the rally was participation-driven rather than thin-market repricing. The reduced absolute move in Dec-26 (+122) compared to the rest of the strip implies fading speculative urgency in deferred months, leaving the curve in a “front-led momentum regime” rather than a structural re-anchoring across all maturities.

ICE London Cocoa Futures

The London cocoa curve delivered a consistent rally between 2 and 5 Jan, with a narrow performance dispersion of ~1.9–2.0%, signaling uniform demand rather than contract-specific flows. The front contract (Mar-26) carried the highest volume, confirming that liquidity remains concentrated at the near end of the curve, while participation decayed steadily across the strip. The parallel magnitude of gains in Mar-26 and Jul-26 suggests calendar spreads did not distort the directional move, reinforcing a curve-wide bid. No abnormal volume spikes appear in the back months, indicating the rally was driven primarily by the most liquid maturities without speculative exhaustion farther out the curve.

Contango / Backwardation

US Curve Analysis
The US ICE cocoa curve on 5 Jan was in contango, but with a distinctly front-led momentum profile. The mid-curve carried the richest premiums versus the front (Mar-26 at 6,077): May-26 was +31, Jul-26 +66, Sep-26 +77, before compressing into Dec-26 at +34. The sharp contraction of the premium in the 5th contract confirms that liquidity and directional flow dominated the first four maturities, while the back month did not re-anchor to the same bid intensity. The structure shows a healthy contango staircase into the active strip, but without a scarcity-driven squeeze at the prompt end, signaling that the rally was driven by participation in liquid contracts rather than physical tightness priced into deferred delivery.

UK Curve Analysis
The London cocoa curve on 5 Jan was in contango, with deferred contracts stepping progressively higher relative to the front (Mar-26 at 4,355). The curve increments widened modestly into the mid-strip — May-26 traded -6 vs Mar (very slight backward step but effectively flat), while Jul-26 marked -4 vs Mar, keeping the near curve almost neutral. Beyond the mid-point, the structure resumed a clear premium: Sep-26 was -14 vs Mar, and Dec-26 was -30 vs Mar, confirming a gradual carry bid into the back months. The small negative steps at the very front reflect micro spread noise rather than structural backwardation, while the deeper strip pricing shows no urgency premium for prompt scarcity, leaving the curve in a mild, orderly contango regime.

US–UK Spread

6,077 − (4,347 × 1.354) = +191 USD, (up from $145)

Widening from the prior 2-Jan spread of +145 USD. The spread expanded as the US front contract rallied more aggressively than London when normalized for FX, confirming relative strength in US liquidity. The ~46 USD increase in the spread suggests US buyers repriced faster than UK hedgers supplied, leaving the arb leg less efficient at the front.

Volume & Open Interest

US — ICE Cocoa (CC)

The US market carried significantly larger daily volumes than London, but open interest into 2 Jan expanded only marginally relative to participation, indicating high turnover, fast rotation, and momentum-driven flow rather than structural exposure growth. The missing 5-Jan OI report prevents final front-month commitment assessment, but the pattern leading into 2 Jan signals a liquidity-led rally where trading activity exceeded conviction-based position holding, aligning with the observed spread widening into 5 Jan when normalized for FX.

UK — ICE London Cocoa

Open interest expanded steadily into 2 Jan (+803 contracts from 31 Dec to 2 Jan), reflecting gradual exposure accumulation into the active strip despite seasonal volume compression at year-end. Volume rebounded post-holiday and increased into 5 Jan without an accompanying OI print, meaning commitment growth for the latest session cannot be validated. The participation recovery, paired with a prior orderly OI incline into 2 Jan, implies the rally was supported by liquidity returning to near maturities, not a prompt-scarcity squeeze or disorderly speculative overload. The curve remained structurally stable into the mid-strip, consistent with carry-aligned positioning behavior rather than high-urgency repricing.

Warehouse Inventory

What to Expect Tomorrow

Cocoa Futures are trading near 6077.00, which represents the current equilibrium pivot. The weekly timeframe remains structurally bullish with MA200 positioned far below price, while the daily and intraday charts show stabilization through a sequence of higher lows forming since Q4 2025. The medium-term moving averages (90 and 150) are flattening and converging around price, indicating a transition phase rather than an active trend, and the shorter averages are crossing repeatedly, confirming range-bound, choppy conditions consistent with a re-accumulation structure. Momentum oscillators support this view, with daily RSI sitting in the 55–60 zone, neutral-to-mildly bullish but not expanding and Stochastics cycling inside the mid-band without directional commitment. Volume participation is still skewed toward downside spikes, while upside legs show comparatively lighter engagement, suggesting early accumulation interest but not institutional conviction. The key resistance cluster to validate trend resumption sits between 6200–6250, and a higher-timeframe close above 6250 with above-average volume, RSI expansion beyond 62, and proper moving-average alignment (MA10 > MA20 > MA50) would signal the most probable breakout path toward 6320, 6450, and higher. Until that confirmation prints, this remains a monitoring zone, not an execution zone, and the correct stance is to stand down and wait for expansion proof rather than trading the noise.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.