Daily Cocoa Market Report (5 March 2026): Cocoa Supply Chain Tensions Emerge as Ghana Farmers Await Payments

Key Highlights

• ICE US May-26 cocoa futures closed at 3,026, up 1 point from the previous session, while deferred contracts strengthened, with Dec-26 gaining 27 points to 3,244.
• London cocoa futures rallied across the curve, with Dec-26 rising 45 points to 2,327.
• Spread trading dominated activity, accounting for more than 56% of total volume on both ICE exchanges.
• Ghanaian cocoa farmers report delayed payments despite the regulator releasing $337 million to licensed buying companies.
• Côte d’Ivoire cocoa exports surged 32.63% year-on-year in February.

Industry Developments

Recent developments in West Africa highlight growing structural tensions within the cocoa supply chain, particularly related to financing constraints, farmer payments, and the flow of exports from the region. Two developments illustrate the complexity of the current situation. In Ghana, farmers report continued delays in receiving payments despite a major financial intervention by the regulator, while in neighboring Côte d’Ivoire export data shows a sharp increase in shipments even as domestic marketing difficulties persist.

In Ghana, the cocoa regulator recently released approximately $337 million to licensed buying companies (LBCs) to help settle payment arrears owed to farmers and support liquidity within the cocoa marketing system. The funds were intended to clear outstanding payments for beans delivered as far back as November 2025. However, several farmers and purchasing clerks report that payments have still not reached them. Some market participants fear that buyers may be prioritizing the repayment of bank loans used to finance cocoa purchases instead of immediately transferring funds to producers. Licensed buyers typically rely on bank credit to prefinance bean purchases during the season, and industry estimates suggest the sector currently carries between 7 and 8 billion Ghanaian cedi in outstanding loans. This financing pressure creates a bottleneck in the supply chain where funds may first stabilize company balance sheets before reaching farmers.

Delayed payments can have important consequences for the cocoa market. Farmers depend on timely income to maintain farm operations, purchase inputs, and fund harvesting activities. If payment delays persist, some farmers may slow deliveries or withhold beans from the market while waiting for better payment conditions. Such disruptions can tighten near-term supply availability even when cocoa production itself has not declined.

At the same time, developments in Côte d’Ivoire reveal another unusual dynamic in the regional cocoa market. As highlighted by cocoa sector analyst Ousmane Attai Ouedraogo, official figures indicate that raw cocoa bean exports increased by 32.63% in February compared with the same period last season, despite reports of marketing difficulties and significant stocks being held by farmers. Export growth has also been strong in processed cocoa products. Cocoa paste shipments rose by 12.52%, while cocoa butter exports surged by 41.55% year-on-year, reflecting continued strong demand for semi-processed cocoa products in international markets. Cocoa powder exports also recorded a noticeable increase, confirming strong activity within the processing segment of the industry.

The contrast between strong export growth and reports of domestic marketing disruptions suggests that the cocoa sector is currently experiencing distribution and liquidity distortions rather than a simple imbalance between supply and demand. While farmers in some areas struggle with delayed payments or difficulty selling beans locally, exporters and processors appear to be continuing shipments through established trade channels. This indicates that cocoa beans are still moving into the global market, but the financial and logistical mechanisms that link farmers, buyers, and exporters are under strain.

For global cocoa markets, these developments highlight the growing importance of financial conditions within the supply chain, not just weather or crop production. West Africa accounts for roughly two-thirds of global cocoa output, meaning disruptions in payment flows or marketing systems can influence how quickly beans reach export markets. If financing constraints or payment delays persist, they could eventually lead to slower farmer deliveries or temporary supply bottlenecks later in the season.

At the same time, the strong export performance from Côte d’Ivoire indicates that international demand for cocoa and cocoa products remains robust, particularly for processed derivatives such as cocoa butter and cocoa paste. This continued demand from the global chocolate industry may support prices even as the market navigates short-term volatility related to financing pressures within producing countries.

Futures Performance

Cocoa futures trading on 5 March 2026 produced a mixed but structurally bullish session across the New York and London exchanges. The ICE US market remained relatively stable, with only modest movements in nearby contracts while deferred maturities showed clearer strength. The March 2026 contract edged slightly lower by five points, closing at 2,963, indicating limited urgency for immediate supply. However, further along the curve, prices gradually strengthened, culminating in a notable 27-point rise in the December 2026 contract. This pattern suggests that traders are increasingly focused on medium-term supply conditions rather than short-term availability.

ICE US Cocoa (CC)

The forward curve in New York displayed continued steepening, a classic signal that the market expects tighter supply conditions in future crop cycles. While the nearby contract showed minor weakness, the steady gains in later contracts, particularly September and December 2026, indicate that market participants remain concerned about the sustainability of production recovery in West Africa. This positioning implies that traders are hedging against potential supply risks during the next main crop cycle rather than reacting to immediate shortages.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London cocoa futures showed significantly stronger bullish momentum, with all major contracts advancing sharply. The March 2026 contract gained 30 points to close at 2,170, while deferred maturities recorded even larger increases. The September 2026 contract rose by 44 points and the December 2026 contract by 45 points, reflecting aggressive buying across the curve. This broad-based rally suggests stronger demand from European market participants, possibly linked to grinder hedging activity or speculative positioning anticipating tighter supply conditions.

From a structural perspective, the overall price movement reinforces the bullish long-term sentiment that has characterized cocoa markets in recent seasons. Deferred contracts outperforming nearby maturities suggest that traders are increasingly focused on potential supply deficits during the 2026–2027 crop cycle. Concerns remain around the recovery of cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana after consecutive seasons affected by adverse weather, disease pressure, and aging tree stocks.

Forward Curve & Market Structure

The futures curve remains in contango, with deferred contracts trading at progressively higher prices than nearby months. While the nearby March 2026 contract in New York declined slightly during the session, longer-dated contracts such as September and December 2026 recorded stronger gains. The December contract rose 27 points in New York and 45 points in London, indicating that traders are increasingly positioning for tighter supply conditions beyond the current crop cycle.

This pattern often reflects structural supply concerns rather than immediate shortages. When deferred contracts rise faster than nearby months, it suggests that market participants expect potential production challenges or supply deficits in future seasons. Traders may be hedging against risks related to West African crop recovery, aging tree stocks, or weather variability affecting upcoming harvests.

The high level of spread trading observed during the session reinforces this interpretation. With more than 56% of total trading volume occurring in calendar spreads, market participants appear to be actively adjusting positions along the curve rather than simply taking directional positions in the market. Such activity is typical when institutional traders attempt to capture changes in the relative pricing between contract months as supply expectations evolve.

Overall, the current futures structure indicates that the cocoa market remains focused on medium-term supply risks, even as nearby contracts continue to trade within a consolidation range around the $3,000 per ton level.

US–UK May Spread

$3,026 − (2,203 x 1.335$/£) =$85 ton (down from $122/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

Trading activity in ICE US cocoa futures showed a gradual slowdown in volume over the last several sessions while open interest remained elevated. Total trading volume peaked earlier in the period at 71,477 contracts on 19 February, before trending lower toward the beginning of March. By 5 March, daily volume had declined to 32,496 contracts, representing one of the lighter sessions within the observed period. Despite the reduction in trading activity, open interest had previously risen significantly, climbing from 156,375 contracts on 16 February to a peak of 193,236 on 2 March. This steady increase in open interest alongside fluctuating volume suggests that new positions were being added to the market during late February. However, open interest began to stabilize and slightly decline afterward, falling to 191,417 contracts on 4 March, indicating that some traders may have started adjusting or partially closing positions as prices stabilized.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

In ICE London cocoa futures, trading volumes followed a similar moderation trend but remained somewhat steadier compared with New York. Daily volume ranged between 33,000 and 61,745 contracts during late February, with the highest activity recorded on 20 February at 61,745 contracts. Activity declined noticeably in early March, with volume falling to 21,831 contracts on 4 March before recovering slightly to 24,517 contracts on 5 March. This drop in volume indicates reduced short-term trading activity as the market moved into a consolidation phase.

Open interest in London cocoa showed a different dynamic compared with New York. Total open interest increased gradually from 214,950 contracts on 19 February to a peak of 218,163 contracts on 26 February, indicating that traders were building new positions during this period. However, open interest then declined steadily, dropping to 204,373 contracts by 4 March. This reduction suggests that some market participants began reducing exposure or rolling positions forward as contract maturities approached.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

What to expect tomorrow

The market is likely to remain range-bound with a slight bearish bias. If selling pressure continues, cocoa futures may test the $3,000 support level early in the session. A sustained break below this level could push prices toward $2,960–$2,980, which has acted as the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range.

If buyers defend the $3,000 level, prices could rebound toward $3,050–$3,080, keeping cocoa within the current sideways trading band.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.