Daily Cocoa Market Report (6 Feb 2026): Cocoa Futures Consolidate After Technical Rebound

With solid volume across both exchanges, the cocoa market consolidated on Friday following Thursday’s sharp rebound. In London, the second month ended the session down GBP 16 at GBP 3,051, while most nearby contracts eased modestly after gains of 90–100 points the previous day. New York followed a similar pattern, with the March contract closing down 28 points at 4,154, retracing a limited portion of Thursday’s rally. Trade remained orderly across the curve, with back months relatively resilient, reinforcing the view that the market is digesting recent volatility rather than rolling over.

Ghana is currently holding approximately 50,000 metric tons of unsold cocoa at ports, according to the country’s regulator, adding fresh visibility to near-term logistical and financing constraints in the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. The chief executive of COCOBOD stated that Ghana has harvested just under 585,000 tons so far this season, of which around 530,000 tons have been sold, leaving a residual volume awaiting export. Full-season production is forecast at 650,000 tons, implying that additional supply will enter the system during the March–August mid-crop period.

However, Ghanaian licensed buying companies (LBCs) dispute the official estimate, suggesting that the volume of unsold cocoa could be significantly higher, potentially closer to 300,000 tons when unpaid stocks across the supply chain are included. These estimates encompass cocoa held at ports, unpaid beans stored inland by LBCs, stocks still held by farmers, and anticipated inventories from the upcoming mid-crop. The divergence in estimates highlights ongoing stress in cocoa financing and payment flows, even as global futures markets remain structurally supported.

Separately, trader positioning data indicates divergent behavior across exchanges. In New York, funds and commercial participants increased their short exposure, while index funds added to long positions. In London, funds were net sellers, whereas commercial participants were net buyers, reinforcing the view that commercial demand remains active beneath speculative volatility.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

Friday’s session reflected a controlled technical pullback following Thursday’s sharp, curve-wide rebound, with both New York and London cocoa futures giving back a modest portion of the prior day’s gains. Price declines were concentrated in the front months, while the back of the curve remained comparatively resilient, most notably in London where the December 2026 contract closed higher on the day. Intraday volatility was elevated, but selling pressure was absorbed above key support levels, and closes held comfortably off session lows, indicating profit-taking rather than renewed liquidation. The absence of front-month stress, curve distortion, or disorderly volume patterns confirms that Thursday’s rally was primarily driven by short-covering, with Friday’s action representing consolidation rather than a breakdown in trend or structure.

Contango/Backwardation

The cocoa forward curve at Friday’s close remains in contango in both New York and London, with deferred contracts priced progressively higher than nearby months, confirming the absence of immediate physical tightness or front-month stress. In ICE US cocoa, the Mar–Dec 2026 structure continues to slope upward smoothly, with no kinks or compression points, indicating that the recent volatility has not altered underlying carry dynamics. London shows a similar profile, though with slightly stronger relative pricing in the back months, particularly December, which firmed despite broader front-month weakness. This mild back-end outperformance marginally flattened the curve but stopped well short of inversion. Overall, the curve behavior signals stable financing and storage conditions, ongoing commercial coverage in deferred months, and a market that remains structurally supported but not yet under the kind of acute nearby supply pressure that would be required to force backwardation.

US–UK Spread

4,154 − (3,051 x 1.361$/£) =$1 ton (down from $32/ton)

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

From late January into early February, total volume expanded materially while open interest trended higher into 5 February, indicating active position building rather than pure churn. The spike in volume on 30 Jan and again on 4–5 Feb aligns with the sharp downside liquidation followed by the technical rebound, suggesting that fresh participation entered the market around key inflection points.

ICE London Cocoa (C)

London shows a clearer and more persistent open-interest build through early February, peaking on 4 Feb before a modest dip on 5 Feb. Volume remained steady to firm into 6 Feb, even as prices consolidated, reinforcing the view that the back end of the curve is being accumulated. The combination of stable-to-rising volume with only marginal OI retracement supports the idea that London is acting as the structural anchor, with commercial and longer-dated interest offsetting front-month tactical trading.

COT Analysis

The latest Commitments of Traders data confirms a market that remains heavily commercially anchored, with speculative positioning active but not excessive. In ICE US cocoa, total open interest rose sharply by 15,107 contracts week-on-week, confirming that the late-January selloff and early-February rebound were accompanied by fresh participation rather than position liquidation. Commercials continue to dominate the market structure, holding roughly 95% of total open interest, with their long and short positions broadly balanced, reinforcing the view that recent price volatility has been absorbed through hedging activity rather than forced repositioning.

Non-commercial traders in the US market remain net short, with long positions of 27,388 contracts versus 43,942 shorts, indicating that speculative length has not yet returned aggressively despite the rebound. The increase in non-commercial spreading activity further supports the interpretation that funds are positioning cautiously, favoring relative value and curve exposure over outright directional bets. Importantly, the rise in open interest occurred alongside increases on both the long and short sides, signaling two-way conviction rather than capitulation.

In ICE Europe (London) cocoa, the structure is similarly balanced but shows slightly firmer managed-money participation. Producer/Merchant positions remain the dominant force, accounting for nearly 77% of reported open interest, underscoring the continued role of commercials in anchoring the curve. Managed money holds a modest net short position, with short contracts materially exceeding longs, while spreading activity remains elevated. This configuration aligns with London’s recent back-month resilience and reinforces the view that commercial demand is strongest further out the curve, while speculative players remain hesitant to chase upside in the nearby months.

Certified Cocoa Inventory Stocks

What to Expect Tomorrow

Cocoa is expected to open Monday in a continuation of post-rebound consolidation, with price action likely to remain range-bound rather than directional. After the sharp January selloff and last week’s technically driven rebound, downside momentum has clearly slowed, but the market remains capped below declining short- and medium-term moving averages, limiting upside follow-through. Intraday momentum indicators point to neutral conditions, suggesting choppy two-way trade around the 4,100–4,200 zone, with early weakness potentially drawing dip-buying interest rather than triggering renewed liquidation. A sustained move higher would require a clean break above nearby resistance, while a failure below support would be needed to reopen downside risk. In the absence of a fresh catalyst, Monday’s session is most likely to be characterized by narrow ranges, fading volatility, and continued base-building rather than the start of a new trend.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.