Daily Cocoa Market Report (9 April 2026): Cocoa Closes Higher Despite Easing Logistics and Rising Supply Outlook

• Expana sees cocoa market conditions stabilizing
• TRS reports mid-crop output is estimated at ~400,000 metric tonnes
• Expana has raised its 2025/26 global surplus forecast by 20,000 tonnes to 164,000 tonnes
• West African weather remains mixed
• Logistics are improving, with the Coffee and Cocoa Council increasing export quotas to ~123,000 tonnes as port congestion eases

Cocoa prices closed higher on the day, supported by late-session buying and a firm technical tone despite mixed underlying fundamentals. The market showed resilience, with gains consolidating above key levels as improved supply signals and easing logistics were largely absorbed.

Expana characterizes the current cocoa market environment as increasingly shaped by neutral weather conditions, improving supply signals, and easing logistical constraints. ENSO is expected to remain neutral through mid-year, removing a key source of uncertainty for West African production. While a potential shift toward El Niño is being monitored, its historical correlation with rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana is limited. Any impact would more likely be felt through elevated global temperatures, posing risks to production in regions such as Ecuador and Indonesia rather than materially affecting West Africa.

Balance sheet revisions further reinforce this shift in market sentiment. Expana has increased its 2025/26 surplus projection by 20,000 metric tonnes to 164,000 metric tonnes, signaling a gradual transition away from the extreme deficit conditions that previously dominated the market narrative. While supply remains tight in absolute terms, the directional move toward surplus is significant and points to a softening structural outlook over the medium term.

Crop assessments from TRS point to improving fundamentals in Côte d’Ivoire, particularly in pod development. The observed mix of average small pods and above-average large pods suggests stronger yield potential for the mid-crop. TRS currently estimates the mid-crop at around 400,000 metric tonnes, with upside risk if conditions remain stable. This supports a more comfortable near-term supply outlook and indicates greater resilience in production than previously expected.

Weather conditions across West Africa remain adequate but not fully supportive of optimal crop development. Expana notes that scattered showers have benefited parts of western Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon, supporting localized flowering and pod growth. However, rainfall has been patchy and insufficient to fully replenish soil moisture levels, which could limit yield potential unless more consistent precipitation develops in the coming weeks.

On the logistics side, the Coffee and Cocoa Council reports a clear improvement in the flow of beans, with unloading congestion easing and additional export volumes released. Total quotas have risen to approximately 123,000 tonnes, while arrivals have reached around 1.4 million tonnes, slightly ahead of last year. This normalization is easing the artificial tightness that had previously supported prices and is restoring more consistent physical availability.

Financial markets are beginning to reflect these improving conditions. Citigroup has raised its target price for Barry Callebaut shares from CHF 1,000 to CHF 1,400, indicating expectations of margin recovery and improved operating conditions in the downstream sector. This adjustment reflects better processing economics rather than a continuation of the extreme tightness that had driven cocoa prices higher.

Futures Performance

NY Cocoa Futures (CC)

In New York cocoa (CC), closed higher across the entire curve. Gains ranged from modest increases in the front (May +7, Jul +8) to stronger performance further out the curve (Dec +14, Mar +10). This establishes a clear pattern of bullish continuation with back-end outperformance, indicating a bull steepening structure. The intraday dynamic is important here: although settlements were negative, the recovery into the close signals active buying pressure late in the session, consistent with fund participation or short covering rather than liquidation.

London Cocoa (C)

In contrast, the London cocoa market (C) remained under pressure even on a closing basis, although the declines were less severe than suggested by settlement prices. Losses ranged from -3 to -12 points, with the front end again underperforming. The curve exhibits a mild bear steepening profile, where nearby contracts weaken more than deferred ones. This suggests that London remains more influenced by physical hedging flows and supply-side pressure, with less evidence of speculative support compared to New York.

EFP, EFS and Spread Activity

In New York (CC), EFP activity is front-loaded in May and July, while EFS is negligible. This points to commercial hedging via futures-to-physical exchange. The key signal is that prices still closed higher, meaning this selling was fully absorbed by strong buy-side demand. At the same time, very high spread volume in the front shows that positioning was concentrated in the curve rather than outright. The structure of the move, with the back-end outperforming, suggests bull steepening flows, likely through buying deferred contracts against the front.

In London (C), activity is more commercial and OTC-linked. Both EFP and especially EFS are higher and more evenly distributed, indicating active swap hedging and structured risk transfer. This aligns with the weaker price action. The market failed to recover into the close, suggesting ongoing hedging pressure rather than speculative buying. Spread activity is present but less directional, consistent with roll and maintenance flows rather than aggressive repositioning.

US–UK May Spread

$3,184 − (2385 x 1.339$/£) =$-10ton (up from $-32)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

In New York (CC), volume expands materially into early April, with a clear step change from the mid-20k range in late March to 50–70k during 7–9 April. The peak on 7-Apr (67,970) and sustained high levels on 8-Apr (67,319) and 9-Apr (57,244) confirm that the recent price move was high participation and conviction-driven, not a low-liquidity spike. At the same time, open interest trends upward from ~194k to a peak above 204k, before a slight dip on 8-Apr. This pattern suggests net new length entering the market into the rally, followed by some position adjustment or profit-taking, but without a structural unwind. The combination of elevated volume and relatively stable open interest indicates active rotation and reallocation rather than liquidation.

London Cocoa (C)

In London (C), the pattern is more subdued. Volume increases into 7-Apr (45,596) but then declines sharply to 31,513 on 8-Apr and further to 29,197 on 9-Apr. This contrasts with New York, where activity remains elevated. Open interest in London trends steadily higher throughout the period, rising from ~204k to ~218k by 8-Apr, indicating persistent build-up of positions, likely from commercial hedging. The absence of a meaningful drop in open interest alongside falling prices suggests that short positions are being added or maintained, rather than longs exiting aggressively.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

Readers can explore detailed cocoa market datasets, futures statistics, and historical indicators in the CocoaIntel Data Hub:

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What to expect tomorrow

Based on the chart structure and current cocoa market conditions, the most probable price behavior tomorrow is a choppy, slightly bearish session with a tendency to sell into strength. The broader trend remains down, with price still trading below key moving averages and no confirmed reversal signals, while short-term momentum suggests a mild corrective bounce is already losing strength. This sets up a typical “range then fade” scenario: price may open flat or push slightly higher into the 3185–3220 resistance zone, where selling pressure is likely to re-enter, leading to a gradual move back toward 3120–3080. A sustained move above 3200 with strong volume could extend toward 3230–3280, but this is a lower-probability outcome given the prevailing bearish structure. Overall, expect consolidation, false upside attempts, and a bias toward drifting lower rather than a clean directional breakout.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.