Daily Cocoa Market Report (9 Feb 2026): Cocoa Prices Slide Sharply as Market Digests Mixed West African Supply Signals

Cocoa market fundamentals continue to send mixed but stabilizing signals. In Côte d’Ivoire, recent field reports indicate that adequate soil moisture is supporting the development of the 2026 mid-crop, despite below-average rainfall in parts of the growing regions. Farmers report improved flowering and pod formation, aided by a weak Harmattan and residual moisture, raising expectations that the April–September mid-crop could perform better than earlier feared. This has eased some near-term supply anxiety, even as the main crop marketing phase remains subdued due to storage constraints and selective farmer selling.

Adequate Soil Moisture Supports Ivory Coast Cocoa Mid-Crop

Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions recorded below-average rainfall last week, but farmers say soil moisture levels remain sufficient to support the development of the April to September mid-crop. As the world’s largest cocoa producer enters its dry season, which typically runs from mid-November to March when rainfall is limited,

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However, official port data underline that overall supply remains tight. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals for the 2025/26 season reached 1.263 million tonnes as of February 8, down 4.46% year-on-year. Weekly arrivals were also notably lower than last season, confirming that export flows remain constrained despite improving agronomic conditions. The slower pace of arrivals suggests that any mid-crop improvement will need to be material to offset earlier season shortfalls.

In Ghana, structural stress continues to dominate the supply narrative. COCOBOD officials have attributed the buildup of unsold and stranded cocoa beans to legacy debt burdens, financing constraints, and rigid pricing mechanisms that have limited purchasing activity by licensed buyers. Independent assessments warn that these issues are systemic rather than temporary, with declining production and strained confidence among farmers and buyers. While emergency interventions may prevent a near-term collapse, Ghanaian exports remain structurally impaired.

Futures Performance

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

The cocoa market on Monday, 09 February 2026, confirmed that Friday’s weakness was not a one-off technical pause but the continuation of a broader corrective phase. Both New York and London cocoa futures closed sharply lower versus the 06 February settlement levels, with losses concentrated in the front half of the curve. In New York, declines of roughly 140–175 points across the Mar-26 through Dec-26 contracts represent a decisive liquidation of short-term speculative length rather than incremental profit-taking. The speed and uniformity of the move indicate that funds moved quickly to reduce exposure after last week’s rebound failed to attract sustained follow-through buying.

London cocoa futures also weakened but with materially smaller losses than New York, reinforcing the ongoing divergence between the two markets. The comparatively contained declines in London, particularly beyond the nearby contracts, suggest that underlying commercial demand remains present and that selling pressure was largely driven by New York-led fund activity. This relative resilience continues to support the view that European grinders are selectively using price weakness to extend coverage, limiting downside momentum in the London curve.

Contango/Backwardation

Both the US and UK cocoa futures curves on 09 February 2026 are clearly in contango, with the front-month contracts trading at the lowest prices and each deferred contract priced progressively higher. In the US market, Mar-26 is the cheapest point on the curve and prices rise steadily through to Dec-27, showing an orderly upward-sloping structure. This indicates that nearby supply is viewed as adequate and that the market is not assigning a scarcity premium to prompt delivery. Pricing is dominated by carry costs and time value rather than immediate physical tightness.

The same structure is visible in London cocoa. Mar-26 is the lowest-priced contract, with values increasing consistently across the curve into late 2027. The smooth shape of the curve suggests stable expectations rather than stress or dislocation, and confirms that the UK market is also comfortable deferring supply risk into later periods. The fact that this contango extends well beyond the front year shows that the market expects any tightening to occur further out rather than in the near term.

This contango structure has been in place for a long period and is not a short-term reaction to the recent price decline. It creates a negative roll yield for long front-month positions and helps explain why rallies in nearby contracts tend to fade. Until the curve flattens or moves into backwardation, front-month cocoa prices in both markets are structurally disadvantaged and likely to struggle to sustain upside momentum.

US–UK Spread

3,984 − (2,941 x 1.361$/£) =$-18.7 ton (down from $1/ton)

The US–UK cocoa spread widened sharply through late January as US prices outperformed, then reversed quickly as New York sold off harder than London. The rapid compression and move into negative territory by 9 February show a clear loss of US relative strength and confirm heavier liquidation pressure in New York. The spread behavior signals a regime shift toward UK outperformance rather than a temporary fluctuation.

Volume & Open Interest

ICE US Cocoa Futures (CC)

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

In New York, volume expanded into the sell-off while open interest peaked on Feb 5 and then declined on Feb 6, indicating long liquidation rather than fresh short building. The spike in volume on Feb 9 reinforces that the move lower was driven by position reduction and spread activity, consistent with a corrective phase.

In London, volume remained healthy but less extreme, while open interest stayed broadly stable with only a brief dip, suggesting better balance between buyers and sellers. This supports the relative outperformance of London cocoa and aligns with the observed compression and inversion of the US–UK spread.

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hat to Expect Tomorrow

Based on the 5-minute, 1-hour, daily, and weekly charts, the near-term technical bias remains bearish, but conditions are becoming short-term stretched, increasing the probability of a pause or a shallow bounce rather than immediate acceleration lower.

Price has sold off aggressively into the 3,980–4,000 zone, which is now acting as an important short-term support area visible across intraday and daily timeframes. On the 5-minute and 1-hour charts, price is trading well below the short- and medium-term moving averages, with those averages turning down and acting as dynamic resistance. Momentum indicators confirm downside pressure: RSI is below neutral and approaching oversold on intraday charts, MACD remains negative with weak histogram recovery, and stochastic is pinned near the lower bound, signaling exhaustion rather than fresh downside momentum.

On the daily chart, the market remains in a clear corrective downtrend following the breakdown from the 4,200–4,250 congestion zone. However, the rate of decline has slowed, and price is now extended relative to short-term averages. Volume expanded on the sell-off but is not accelerating further, suggesting liquidation pressure may be easing. The weekly chart reinforces that this is a broader corrective phase within a larger structure, with no technical evidence yet of a trend reversal, but also no sign of panic continuation.

For tomorrow’s session, the most likely scenario is consolidation to slightly higher, driven by short-covering and mean reversion, rather than a clean continuation lower. Initial resistance is expected near 4,030–4,060, where prior intraday support and falling moving averages converge. Failure there would keep the broader bearish structure intact. A decisive break and hold below 3,980 would invalidate the stabilization view and open the door to a deeper extension lower, but at this stage that would require renewed volume expansion.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.