Cocoa futures continued their upward momentum on Monday, extending the sharp rally seen at the end of the previous week. Prices rose across both the London and New York markets as traders maintained a bullish stance toward the mid-2026 delivery period. The move reflects continued concern over structural supply tightness and positioning ahead of the main West African mid-crop.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals

Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reached 1.35 million metric tons since the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1, representing a 3.57% decline compared with the same period last year. The slower pace of deliveries suggests that supply remains somewhat constrained compared with the previous season.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals 3.57% Lower for the 2025/26 Season

Cocoa deliveries to ports in Côte d’Ivoire have reached 1.35 million metric tons since the start of the 2025/26 season on October 1, according to estimates from exporters. This figure represents a 3.57% decline compared with the same period last season, indicating slightly slower arrivals from

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Weather Conditions and Mid-Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in Ivory Coast have recently improved, supporting expectations for the upcoming mid-crop. Farmers report that regular rainfall since the beginning of March has been beneficial for pod development, helping trees produce small and medium-sized pods that are expected to contribute to the March–August mid-crop harvest.

Rainfall has been uneven across producing regions. In Divo, farmers reported 44.3 mm of rainfall last week, about 29.8 mm above the five-year average, providing important moisture during what is typically part of the dry season. Above-average rainfall was also reported in Soubre, another key cocoa-growing area.

Other regions received slightly lower precipitation. Areas including Agboville, Abengourou, Daloa, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro recorded rainfall levels below their seasonal averages. Despite this, farmers in those regions still expect satisfactory yields. Weekly temperatures ranged between 28.5°C and 31.7°C, conditions generally considered suitable for cocoa development.

The government also recently announced a significant adjustment to producer prices, cutting the fixed farmgate price paid to farmers for the mid-crop by 57% to 1,200 CFA francs ($2.14) per kilogram, reflecting weaker international prices compared with last season.

Concerns Over Cocoa Stockpiles

Separately, an article published by AP (Associated Press), a major international news agency, highlighted concerns regarding excess cocoa stockpiles and the deterioration of stored beans in Ivory Coast and Ghana. The report noted that some farmers have experienced payment delays for previously delivered cocoa beans.

In one example cited in the article, a farmer reportedly sold his land to illegal gold miners (“galamsey”) after not receiving payment for older cocoa deliveries, illustrating the financial pressures faced by some producers and the broader challenges within the cocoa supply chain.

Chocolate Industry Developments

On the demand side, major chocolate manufacturers continue to adjust to higher cocoa prices. Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Sprüngli reported that its 2025 operating profit increased by roughly 10%, with EBIT reaching 971 million Swiss francs ($1.25 billion), slightly above analysts’ expectations.

The company has managed to maintain profitability by passing higher cocoa costs on to consumers, demonstrating the pricing power of premium chocolate brands. Lindt also reported that its EBIT margin increased by 20 basis points to 16.4%.

Looking ahead, the company revised its growth outlook slightly, now expecting organic sales growth of 4–6% per year, compared with its earlier projection of 6–8%. Despite this adjustment, Lindt maintained its expectation that EBIT margins will continue to expand by 20–40 basis points annually, reflecting confidence in long-term demand for premium chocolate products.

Overall, the latest developments suggest a cocoa market influenced by mixed supply signals, improving weather conditions for the mid-crop, and continued adjustments by chocolate manufacturers to higher raw material costs.

Futures Performance

ICE New York Cocoa Futures (CC)

The New York market mirrored this strength and, in percentage terms, recorded slightly larger increases. The May contract rose from 3,230 to 3,322, while July advanced from 3,284 to 3,379. September and December contracts followed a similar trajectory, closing at 3,429 and 3,495 respectively. These moves represent gains of around 2.8–2.9% across the forward curve, highlighting strong buying pressure in the dollar-denominated cocoa market.

ICE London Cocoa Futures (C)

In the London market, futures advanced between roughly 2.4% and 2.8% depending on the contract month. The March contract rose from 2,292 to 2,351, while the more actively traded May contract increased from 2,324 to 2,380. Further along the curve, July climbed to 2,426 and September reached 2,453. December 2026 futures also strengthened, closing at 2,492. The consistent gains across all delivery months suggest that the market is pricing ongoing structural tightness rather than reacting to a short-term supply disruption.

The strength of deferred contracts relative to nearby months indicates that market participants continue to factor in potential supply constraints later in the season. Concerns remain centered on West Africa, where Ivory Coast and Ghana together account for roughly two-thirds of global cocoa production. Although weather conditions have been relatively stable in recent weeks, earlier dryness and uneven pod development have created uncertainty regarding the final size of the mid-crop.

Forward Curve & Market Structure

The cocoa forward curve remained in contango on 9 March, with deferred contracts trading at higher prices than nearby months in both London and New York. The structure steepened slightly compared with 6 March, indicating stronger demand for forward exposure. In London, the May–December 2026 spread widened from 103 GBP to 112 GBP, while in New York the May–December spread increased from 169 USD to 173 USD, suggesting that traders are increasingly pricing tighter supply conditions later in the season.

Trading activity showed significant spread positioning, with 20,762 spread contracts traded in London and 24,046 in New York. High spread volume typically indicates active curve trading by funds and commercial participants adjusting exposure between contract months rather than entering outright positions.

Additional activity through EFP (Exchange for Physical) and EFS (Exchange for Swap) transactions reflects continued interaction between the futures market, the physical cocoa trade, and OTC derivatives. These mechanisms allow hedges to be transferred between physical positions, swaps, and exchange-traded futures, supporting liquidity and price alignment between markets.

US–UK May Spread

$3,322 − (2380 x 1.344$/£) =$123 ton (up from $113/ton)

Volume and Open Interest

New York Cocoa (CC)

In the New York market (CC), daily trading volume increased significantly at the start of March, reaching 58,822 contracts on 2 March, the highest level in the observed period. This spike coincided with the beginning of the recent upward price movement. After this surge, trading volumes moderated, falling to 32,496 contracts on 5 March, before recovering slightly to 45,025 on 6 March and 42,887 on 9 March. Despite the pullback from the early-March peak, volumes remained relatively elevated, indicating continued market participation as prices moved higher.

Open interest in New York futures increased steadily through the end of February, rising from 173,446 contracts on 24 February to 193,236 contracts on 2 March, suggesting that new positions were being added to the market during this period. Following this peak, open interest declined slightly to 191,019 contracts by 5 March and then stabilized near 191,667 contracts on 6 March. This pattern indicates that some positions were reduced after the initial rally, although the overall level of open interest remains relatively high compared with late February.

London Cocoa (C)

In the London cocoa market (C), trading volumes followed a similar pattern but with slightly lower daily fluctuations. Volumes were particularly strong earlier in the period, reaching 61,745 contracts on 20 February, before gradually declining toward early March. Activity reached a short-term low of 21,831 contracts on 4 March, after which volumes recovered modestly to 33,479 contracts on 6 March and 33,443 contracts on 9 March. The stabilization in trading activity suggests that participation returned as prices strengthened.

Open interest in London futures showed a gradual decline during early March. After reaching 218,163 contracts on 26 February, open interest fell steadily to 204,373 contracts by 4 March, before stabilizing slightly at 206,670 contracts on 6 March. The reduction in open interest during this period suggests that part of the rally may have been supported by short-covering, where traders closed previously established positions rather than large amounts of new speculative buying entering the market.

Exchange Trading Volume

These figures refer only to ICE Deliverable Stocks (Exchange-Visible)

What to expect tomorrow

In the short term, cocoa prices are likely to remain supported while trading above the 3,250–3,260 support zone, which now acts as the first technical support following the recent breakout.

If bullish momentum continues, the market could attempt to test the 3,300–3,320 resistance area, which represents the next important technical barrier on the hourly chart. A break above this zone could extend the recovery toward 3,350 in the coming sessions.

However, given that several momentum indicators are approaching overbought territory on intraday charts, a short consolidation or minor pullback cannot be ruled out. In that scenario, prices may temporarily retreat toward the 3,250–3,260 range before attempting another upward move.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.