Daily Coffee Market Report (23 March 2026): Market remains supported above the key 300 c/lb level despite speculative selling pressure.
Arabica coffee futures on ICE closed lower on Monday, following a highly volatile trading session. After the strong rally seen last week, the market entered a phase of technical correction, with prices moving lower during the day. However, losses were partially recovered by the close, with the May contract settling down 0.89%.
Despite the pullback, underlying fundamentals remain relatively stable. The market continues to absorb ongoing news, but sentiment is currently influenced by broader macro uncertainty, particularly escalating tensions in the Middle East. These developments triggered noticeable volatility across multiple asset classes, including oil, which fluctuated sharply throughout the session.
Price action on Monday was wide, with May futures trading within a range of 1,175 points. Trading activity was also elevated, with approximately 55,000 lots exchanged.
The uncertain geopolitical backdrop is increasing risk aversion across global markets. This is especially relevant for commodities, which are typically more sensitive to external shocks.
On the supply side, recent export data from Brazil showed weaker flows. According to Secex, green coffee exports during the third week of March (15 out of 19 working days) totaled 1.86 million bags, averaging 123,968 bags per day. This represents a 35.5% decline compared to the same period last year. Export revenues reached $757.4 million, with an average price of $407.21 per bag.
In Brazil’s domestic market, activity remained slow. Sellers were largely inactive, mirroring the softer tone in New York. Prices for high-quality coffee in southern Minas Gerais were stable at around BRL 2,150 per bag.
At the close:
- May Arabica fell 275 points to 307.00 c/lb (range: 300.95–312.70)
- July Arabica dropped 250 points to 299.85 c/lb (range: 293.70–304.45)
In London:
- May Robusta declined $27 to $3,637/ton
- July Robusta eased $10 to $3,558/ton
The session was largely driven by speculative selling. Prices briefly tested lower levels but managed to hold above the key psychological support at 300 c/lb.
Geopolitical developments were a major driver of volatility. Over the weekend, tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with threats targeting energy infrastructure. Concerns over potential disruptions, particularly in critical transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz, are weighing on market sentiment and impacting a wide range of assets.
Weather is also starting to gain attention. According to Climatempo, the second half of autumn (May to early July) in Brazil could bring sharper temperature drops across key coffee regions in the Center-South, including São Paulo and Minas Gerais. This raises the risk of earlier-than-usual frost events, especially in higher-altitude areas.
For Arabica-producing regions such as southern Minas Gerais, this creates an earlier exposure window to cold weather risks. Potential impacts include damage to crops and disruption to flowering if cold events occur outside the typical frost period.
Currency movements had limited influence on Monday’s session, with the Brazilian real strengthening slightly against the US dollar.
Intraday, the market opened down 95 points at 308.80 c/lb, briefly recovered to a high of 312.70, and then moved lower again, touching a low of 300.95 before stabilizing.
Market participants note that coffee is increasingly being driven by external factors, particularly oil price movements and geopolitical risk. At the same time, attention is gradually shifting toward weather conditions in Brazil, as the market approaches the critical “weather market” period typically seen from May onward.
