Daily Coffee Market Report (4 March 2026): Industrial Buying Supports Prices, but Brazil’s Record Crop Outlook Caps the Rally

Arabica coffee futures closed higher on Wednesday as continued industrial buying in New York supported prices, although expectations of a record Brazilian crop limited stronger upside momentum in the market.

During Wednesday’s session, industrial buying again pushed prices toward the upper end of the range, with the contract reaching 289.95 cents. Selling pressure from origin appeared near these levels, but sustained buying interest allowed the market to remain above 286 cents for much of the session. If external macroeconomic influences remain limited, recent price behavior suggests that continued industry buying in the May contract could push prices above 290 cents, targeting the 20-day moving average and potentially the next resistance level around 293.50 cents. A confirmed breakout could open the way toward 301 cents, although analysts expect selling pressure to increase as prices approach the 290-cent region.

In Brazil, activity on the B3 (BM&F) exchange highlighted tightness in the physical market. The May contract traded between US$366.80 and US$382.00 per bag (approximately R$1,913 to R$1,993), levels that remain below prices in the domestic physical market. In the coffee-producing region of Patrocínio, high-quality coffee with 15% screen 15+ was reported trading at around R$2,000 per bag. Market participants note that Brazilian producers remain hesitant to sell high-quality coffee, contributing to tight supply conditions in the physical market despite elevated price levels. One market specialist summarized the situation by noting that it has become increasingly difficult to secure quality coffee, as producers remain reluctant to sell.

Market participants note that Brazilian producers remain hesitant to sell high-quality coffee, contributing to the tight supply conditions in the physical market. According to one market specialist, purchasing coffee has become increasingly difficult, with farmers reluctant to release quality beans despite strong prices. This combination of tight nearby supply and cautious producer selling continues to support the market in the short term, even as expectations of a large Brazilian harvest limit stronger price rallies.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are beginning to affect coffee trading flows in Asia, particularly in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of Robusta. Coffee farmers in Vietnam’s Central Highlands have slowed sales as higher shipping costs and market uncertainty encourage producers to hold back supplies.

Farm-gate prices in the Central Highlands were reported between 95,500 and 96,500 dong per kilogram ($3.64–$3.68/kg), slightly below the 96,500–97,500 dong range seen a week earlier. The softer prices reflect cautious trading conditions as exporters and producers monitor developments in global shipping markets.

On the futures side, Robusta prices in London rose modestly, with the May contract gaining $29 to settle at $3,734 per ton. Traders noted that shipping routes from Vietnam to Europe have so far remained operational, although freight costs have at least doubled compared with normal levels. Market participants warn that if geopolitical tensions escalate further, Vietnamese exports to Europe could face greater logistical challenges.

In physical markets, exporters offered 5% black and broken grade-2 Robusta from Vietnam at premiums of $20 to $60 per ton over the May LIFFE contract. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, Robusta beans from Sumatra for May shipment were offered at around a $265 premium, lower than the $280 premium quoted last week, while another exporter reported offers near $90 premium to the May contract, down from about $240 previously.

Producers in Indonesia’s Lampung region also reported that coffee cherries are nearing harvest, suggesting fresh supply may soon reach the market. Overall, traders say the combination of rising freight costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and farmer reluctance to sell is creating a cautious trading environment across Asian Robusta markets.

Futures Performance

Arabica Coffee (ICE New York – KC)

On the ICE New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures moved higher on Wednesday as industrial buying continued to support the market. The May Arabica contract rose 3.35 cents (+1.19%), closing at 285.85 cents per pound, compared with 282.50 cents in the previous session. During the session, prices traded within a 7.15-cent range, moving between 282.40 and 289.55 cents. Despite the gains, the market was unable to break the first resistance level at 289.73 cents, while also maintaining support above 277.73 cents. Trading activity was lighter than in the previous session, with 27,904 lots changing hands, about 10,695 fewer contracts than Tuesday, when the market experienced a much larger 12-cent price swing.

Nearby supply conditions remain tight, as reflected in the inverted futures structure. The May–July spread widened to 5.05 cents, compared with 4.65 cents in the previous session, indicating continued strong demand for nearby coffee deliveries.

Robusta Coffee (ICE London – RC)

In London, Robusta coffee futures also ended the day higher, although trading volumes were relatively thin. The May Robusta contract gained US$39 (+1.05%), closing at US$3,738 per ton, compared with US$3,699 in the previous session. During the session, prices fluctuated between US$3,673 and US$3,757. Volume totaled 14,158 lots, significantly lower than earlier in the week—around 15,985 lots fewer than Monday and 3,117 fewer than Tuesday. The May–July Robusta spread remained inverted, widening slightly to US$82, compared with US$81 previously, reflecting continued tight nearby supply. Meanwhile, the price difference between Arabica in New York and Robusta in London widened to 116.88 cents, up from 115.10 cents in the previous trading session.

Arabica/Robusta spread

May contracts

Arabica $6,302 1MT
Robusta $3,738 1MT

Spread 40.68%

Volume & Open Interest

Arabica Coffee

In ICE Arabica futures, trading volume declined through late February but recovered at the start of March. After falling to 18,801 lots on February 26, volume increased again to 40,379 lots on March 3 and remained relatively strong at 38,999 lots on March 4. At the same time, open interest rose steadily from 156,891 contracts on February 16 to 169,433 contracts on March 3, indicating that new positions are entering the market rather than traders simply closing existing ones. Rising prices combined with increasing open interest usually signal new long positioning and stronger market participation.

Robusta Coffee

In contrast, the Robusta market shows weaker participation. Volumes generally declined through late February, briefly rising to 30,540 lots on March 2, before falling again to 14,495 lots on March 4. Open interest remained relatively stable between 81,000 and 86,000 contracts, suggesting limited new position building.

Certified Inventory Stocks

ICE certified stocks increased by 3,889 bags to 528,028 bags, with 126,011 bags currently awaiting certification. Honduras has been the main contributor to the recent increase in exchange inventories. Over the last ten trading sessions, Honduran stocks registered with the exchange increased from 78,000 to 106,000 bags, accounting for roughly 20% of total certified stocks.

Arabica (KC)

Robusta (RC)

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet.

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.