Daily Coffee Market Report (5 March 2026): Strong Exports, Firm Prices, and Shipping Uncertainty

• Brazil weather forecasts show favorable rainfall
• Mid-year dry season approaching in Brazil
• Middle East tensions disrupt global shipping
• Vietnam coffee exports rose 14% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026.

Weather forecasts across Brazil indicate generally favorable conditions for coffee development in the country’s main Arabica-producing regions during the coming week. Meteorological outlooks point to widespread rainfall across key growing areas, which should support crop conditions as the 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop continues to develop ahead of the harvest season. As the year progresses, attention will increasingly turn to the approaching winter months, when Brazil typically enters a seasonally drier period around mid-year. Market participants will monitor this seasonal transition closely, as rainfall patterns during this stage can influence crop development and yield potential.

Global logistics are also facing renewed uncertainty. After a period in which international shipping networks had begun returning closer to normal operations, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have started to disrupt key maritime trade routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic corridor for global energy shipments, has been closed to commercial traffic, prompting several major shipping companies to introduce Emergency Conflict Surcharges. With no clear timeline for de-escalation, higher energy prices could translate into increased bunker fuel costs, potentially leading shipping lines to raise the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) applied to freight rates. At the same time, many services have suspended transit through the Suez Canal, forcing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, which lengthens shipping times and raises freight costs. These developments may place additional pressure on global coffee logistics and supply chains.

In the physical market, certified washed Arabica stocks held against the New York exchange increased by 3,889 bags, bringing total exchange inventories to 528,028 bags. The majority of these stocks remain stored in Europe, accounting for 416,623 bags (78.9%), while 111,405 bags (21.1%) are located in the United States. By origin, Brazilian washed Arabica represents 30,930 bags, or 5.86% of the certified inventory, while Honduras accounts for 105,936 bags (20.06%) and Peru for 69,516 bags (13.16%). Meanwhile, coffee awaiting grading increased by 5,115 bags to 126,011 bags, with Nicaragua and Honduras together representing around 60.36% of the pending lots, highlighting the continued flow of coffee into the exchange certification system.

Domestic prices in Brazil remain relatively firm despite recent market corrections. According to data from Cepea/Esalq, the Arabica coffee indicator reached R$1,859.96 per 60-kg bag on March 4, marking a daily increase of 0.36% and a monthly gain of 3.47%. Robusta prices showed a slight daily decline, with the Cepea indicator at R$1,067.90 per bag, down 0.67% on the day, but still reflecting a 3.40% increase over the month, indicating continued strength in Brazil’s domestic coffee market amid ongoing demand and international price fluctuations.

Export developments in Asia also highlighted strong supply flows. According to government statistics reported by Reuters, Vietnam exported 366,000 metric tons of coffee during January–February 2026, representing a 14% increase compared with the same period last year. Despite the higher shipment volumes, export revenues declined slightly by 1.3% year-on-year to $1.76 billion, reflecting changes in global price dynamics. In February alone, Vietnam exported 141,000 tons of coffee valued at approximately $672 million.

Futures Performance

The comparison between the 4 March 2026 close and the 5 March 2026 shows a sharp bullish move in Arabica futures, while Robusta remained relatively stable, highlighting a divergence between the two coffee markets.

Arabica Coffee (ICE New York – KC)

On the ICE New York exchange, the Arabica May-26 contract jumped from 285.85 to 295.40 c/lb (+9.55 c), with the rest of the curve also rising strongly by 7–9 cents across Jul-26, Sep-26, Dec-26, and Mar-27. This uniform increase across the forward curve indicates broad buying pressure rather than a purely front-month squeeze, suggesting that both speculative and commercial participants were active. The magnitude of the move also implies that the market likely reacted to tightening supply expectations or renewed demand concerns, reinforcing the inverted structure of the Arabica curve, which typically reflects tight nearby availability.

Robusta Coffee (ICE London – RC)

In contrast, the ICE London Robusta market moved only marginally. The May-26 contract increased slightly from $3,738 to $3,751 (+$13), while Jul-26 rose by just $4 and the Sep-26 and Nov-26 contracts actually slipped by $1, with Jan-27 gaining $4. This relatively muted movement suggests that the supply-demand balance in Robusta remains more stable, with the market not pricing in the same degree of immediate tightness seen in Arabica.

Forward Curve & Market Structure

The Arabica forward curve on ICE New York remains strongly inverted, with the May-26 contract at 295.40 c/lb trading above deferred months such as Dec-26 (278.15) and Mar-27 (275.60). This downward-sloping structure indicates tight nearby supply and strong demand for prompt deliveries, likely driven by commercial buying and short-covering. The rally on 5 March was concentrated in the front of the curve, which strengthened the inversion rather than flattening it, confirming that the bullish pressure is primarily short-term supply tightness rather than a long-term production shift.

In contrast, the Robusta curve on ICE London is much flatter, with May-26 at $3,751/t only slightly above Jul-26 ($3,658) and Sep-26 ($3,580). The limited spread between contracts indicates a more balanced supply outlook, where the market does not expect severe short-term shortages. Overall, the structure suggests that Arabica is experiencing tighter immediate supply conditions, while Robusta fundamentals appear relatively stable with less urgency for nearby delivery.

Arabica/Robusta spread

May contracts

Arabica $6,512 1MT
Robusta $3,747 1MT

Spread 42.40%

Volume & Open Interest

Arabica Coffee (ICE New York – KC)

Arabica trading activity has been consistently strong with rising participation. Daily volume fluctuated between 18k and 55k contracts, with peaks on Feb 17 (55,061) and Mar 3 (40,379). Importantly, open interest increased steadily from 156,891 to 170,849 contracts between Feb 16 and Mar 4.

This combination of rising open interest and stable-to-high volume indicates new money entering the market rather than short-term liquidation. When open interest rises while prices also rally (as seen with the move toward ~295 c/lb), it typically signals fresh long positions being built and stronger bullish conviction among traders. The growing open interest also suggests that the rally is structurally supported rather than purely speculative short covering.

Robusta Coffee (ICE London – RC)

Robusta trading activity has been significantly lower and more stable. Daily volume generally ranged between 12k and 24k contracts, with one notable spike on Mar 2 (30,540). Open interest moved from 85,922 to 87,061, indicating only modest growth in participation.

The smaller increase in open interest compared to Arabica suggests that fewer new positions are being established in the Robusta market. The market appears to be trading in balance, with incremental positioning rather than aggressive directional bets.

Certified Inventory Stocks

Arabica Coffee (ICE New York – KC)

Robusta Coffee (ICE London – RC)

Brazil Export Flow

Brazil – Customs Clearance Units (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has been approved and prepared for export. It reflects intent to ship and pipeline buildup, not physical exports yet.

Brazil – Issuance of Certificates of Origin (60-kg bags)

This shows how much coffee has actually cleared Brazilian customs and is therefore ready to leave the country. This is real, executable export flow.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email hello@cocoaintel.com or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.