Daily Coffee Market Report (9 April 2026): Brazil Outlook Revised Higher, Market Consolidates

• Arabica futures on ICE Futures US traded in consolidation Thursday
• StoneX raises Brazil 2026/27 coffee output estimate by 6.51% to 75.30m bags
• Starbucks completes sale of 60% stake in China retail business to Boyu Capital
• illycaffè FY2025 revenue +12% to €700m; strong growth in US (+20%) and Europe
• ICE certified arabica stocks +1,824 bags to 548,544

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US traded in a consolidative manner on Thursday, with the May contract closing marginally lower by 0.12%, while July posted modest gains. The session unfolded largely in line with expectations, as recent fundamental developments appear to be broadly priced into the market.

Price action remained technically driven, with no significant directional conviction. The May contract continued to trade below the 300 US cents/lb level, which remains a key psychological and technical benchmark for the New York market.

Activity was concentrated in spread and rollover positioning, with open interest gradually shifting from May to July. May open interest stands at approximately 46,000 lots, compared to just over 57,000 lots for July. Options-related flows are also becoming more visible as the May delivery period approaches.

Intraday, the May contract traded within a 715-point range, with relatively strong participation, as approximately 26,000 lots were exchanged over the course of the session.

The May 2026 London–New York arbitrage widened to 143.09 US cents/lb, equating to a 48.66% discount for London robusta relative to New York arabica. Trading activity remained largely technical, driven by options-related flows and position rollovers, as the May contract continues to lose liquidity ahead of expiry.

In the latest round of independent Brazil crop updates, StoneX has revised its outlook for the 2026/27 coffee season (July–June), increasing its estimate by 6.51% to 75.30 million bags. This places the figure at the upper end of the current range of independent forecasts, which average approximately 72 million bags.

The revised outlook includes 50.20 million bags of predominantly natural arabica, up 6.35% from the prior estimate, alongside 25.10 million bags of Conilon robusta, revised 6.81% higher. The adjustment reflects improved production expectations across key arabica and robusta regions.

On the global balance sheet, StoneX projects demand for the October 2026 to September 2027 coffee year at 172.50 million bags, representing year-on-year growth of 2.50%. Production is expected to increase more sharply to 182.50 million bags (+7.29% y/y), implying a surplus of approximately 10 million bags. This is better viewed as a rebalancing of the market rather than a structural surplus, given historically low carryover stocks following consecutive deficit seasons.

In corporate developments, Starbucks has completed the sale of a controlling stake in its China operations to Boyu Capital, with Boyu acquiring 60% of the retail business. Starbucks retains ownership of its brand and intellectual property under a licensing structure. The company operates approximately 8,000 stores in China, compared to over 26,000 outlets operated by Luckin Coffee.

illycaffè reported solid FY2025 results, with total revenue rising 12% to €700 million. Growth was supported by a 20% increase in the United States and continued strength in Italy and the broader European market. EBITDA reached €90 million, with net income at €20 million.

On exchange-related developments, certified washed arabica stocks against the New York exchange increased by 1,824 bags to 548,544 bags. Of these, 75.61% are held in Europe (414,732 bags) and 24.39% in the United States (133,812 bags). By origin, Brazil accounts for 4.33% (23,806 bags), Honduras 25.31% (138,863 bags), and Nicaragua 13.65% (74,870 bags).

Pending grading stocks rose by 1,027 bags to 27,061 bags, with Honduras comprising the majority. Combined with washed Ugandan coffees classified as tenderable, these origins represent 68.59% of pending volumes.

From a macro perspective, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Despite a ceasefire in the Middle East, the risk of renewed conflict persists, supporting broader commodity markets. Oil prices resumed their upward trajectory, moving back above the $100 level.

In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices declined amid subdued trading and weak demand. Farmers in the Central Highlands sold coffee between 84,700 and 85,700 dong per kilogram ($3.22–$3.26), down from 90,500–91,000 dong the previous week. Producer selling remains limited. In Indonesia, farmers are anticipating a smaller upcoming harvest.

Currency movements had limited influence on terminal behavior, with the US dollar weakening against the Brazilian real, offering little additional incentive for producer hedging.

If you notice any discrepancies in these figures or have extra information, please email [email protected] or leave a comment – corrections and additional insights are always welcome.