European Cocoa Processing Weakens Further in Q1 2026
European cocoa grindings opened 2026 on a notably weak footing, reinforcing the structural slowdown that began in 2024 and intensified through 2025. The latest data from the European Cocoa Association shows that Q1 2026 grindings reached 325,852 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.8%. This marks one of the softest first-quarter performances in the past decade.
The contraction is not an isolated data point but part of a broader downtrend. Full-year 2025 grindings totaled 1.327 million tons, already down 6.1% versus 2024. The rolling 12-month total entering Q1 2026 stands at approximately 1.297 million tons, confirming continued erosion in processing demand.
Quarterly dynamics highlight persistent weakness across all periods. In 2025, grindings declined year-on-year in every quarter, with Q2 and Q3 particularly soft at 92.8% and 95.2% respectively. Q4 showed no meaningful recovery at 91.7%. The carryover effect into 2026 suggests that the industry has not yet found a demand floor.
From a historical perspective, current grind levels are materially below the peak years of 2020–2022, when annual volumes consistently exceeded 1.45 million tons. The contrast is stark: 2022 recorded 1.466 million tons, implying that the market has contracted by roughly 11–12% from its recent high. This magnitude of decline is atypical for cocoa processing, which traditionally exhibits relatively stable, low-volatility growth.
Cocoa Intel
