Global Cocoa Market Heads Toward 365,000-Ton Surplus in 2025–2026 Season
The global cocoa market is preparing for a significant shift in supply dynamics, as early forecasts for the 2025–2026 crop season indicate a surplus of approximately 365,000 metric tons worldwide. The projection, issued by financial services firm Hedgepoint Global Markets, suggests that the market may be entering a recovery phase following recent years of tight supply and extreme price volatility.
Ivory Coast is expected to remain the dominant force in global production, with output forecast at 1.78 million metric tons. Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to reach 650,000 metric tons, reflecting improved growing conditions and stabilization efforts after previous production challenges. In Latin America, Ecuador is anticipated to produce around 615,000 metric tons, continuing its steady expansion in global market share.
According to Hedgepoint analyst Carol Franca, there is room for upward revisions in Ghanaian and Ecuadorian production estimates. Favorable weather conditions and continued farm-level productivity gains could push total output even higher than current expectations, potentially widening the projected global surplus.
If realized, a surplus of this magnitude would mark a clear reversal from the structural deficits seen in recent seasons. Such an increase in supply could ease pressure on global inventories and weigh on cocoa prices, while influencing stock-to-grind ratios and speculative positioning in the futures market. Market participants will be closely watching weather developments in West Africa, crop health indicators, and future revisions to official production estimates to assess whether the surplus forecast will materialize or expand further.
